Uncertainty and Tension: Russia reacts to Trump’s Greenland Proposal
Postcard from Nuuk, Greenland. Photo: Thomas Letholsen
US President-elect Donald Trump’s statements about acquiring Greenland not exempting economic or military means received critical reactions from Russian officials. They called the development “dramatic” and predict “uncertainty and tension in the region.” Some Russian political commentators celebrated Trump’s statements while others expressed skepticism and noted the potential implications for Russia.
This commentary presents only a small selection of the early reactions from Russia on Trump’s Greenland acquisition proposal. The news broke during Russia’s extended New Year and Christmas holiday period, when many Moscow commentators are on vacation, so we may expect more reactions in the coming weeks.
With criticism, cheer and apathy, the commentary landscape is more diverse than suggested in some articles that have emerged this week. All in all, Russian commentators generally see the proposal as unorthodox to say the least, generally counterproductive, and leaning towards provocative.
The Kremlin keeping an eye on “dramatic” developments
Trump’s statements, which involved mention of “Russian ships all over the place” around Greenland, received disapproving reactions from Russian officials and diplomats. The Russian president’s press secretary Dmitry Peskov, said “We are watching very closely this rather dramatic development of the situation, so far, thank God, at the level of statements.”
Peskov emphasized that Moscow is interested in keeping the Arctic peaceful and stable and that the region is a zone of Russia’s national and strategic interests. While the Kremlin is keeping an eye on Trump’s proposals regarding Greenland, Peskov expressed that Moscow believes the situation is part of Washington’s bilateral relations with Copenhagen.
Meanwhile, Peskov noted Europe’s “timid” response, noting that “Europe is reacting very cautiously, modestly, quietly, almost in a whisper.” The Russian official also took the opportunity to connect the situation to Russia’s military actions in Ukraine. If everyone is highlighting the need to listen to the aspirations of the Greenlandic people, “then, probably, we still need to remember about the opinions of the people of the four new regions of the Russian Federation and we need to show the same respect for the opinions of these people,” said Peskov.
Russian diplomats’ discontentment
Russian diplomats in the Arctic states were critical of Trump’s statements, noting the possibility of instability in the region. Vladimir Barbin, Russia’s Ambassador to Denmark, said that “attempts to ensure US national security at the expense of the interests of other nations may result in further deterioration of the situation in the Arctic, which Russia will take into account in its military planning.” The Russian ambassador noted that the future of Greenland should be determined based on Greenlanders’ own will, within the framework of the Danish law and without interference from outside.
Nikolay Korchunov, Russia’s Ambassador to Norway and former Senior Arctic Official, expressed concern over the potential destabilization and said that Trump’s proposal “can only bring uncertainty and tension to the region.” According to the ambassador, Greenland and Denmark are not the only Arctic states feeling pressure on their sovereignty. Korchunov said that it cannot be ruled out that the Trump administration may show interest in Norway’s Svalbard archipelago.
The Russian ambassador in Oslo called for crafting policy “on the basis of international law, the principles of mutual consideration of interests, and inclusive dialogue” and not allowing this development to disrupt preparations for the transition of the Arctic Council chairmanship from Norway to Denmark in 2025. In general, the situation may cause an unfavorable situation in the Arctic with increased instability and mutual mistrust between Arctic Council members.
In some ways, Russian officials’ reaction to the Greenland frenzy is comparable to Russia’s reaction to the USA’s unilateral expansion of its continental shelf claims and predictions of increased tensions as a result of the move. At the same time, the Russian Foreign Ministry’s spokeswoman, Maria Zakharova, considers it too early to comment on Trump’s proposal and that “we need to ask him questions… let’s still tell ourselves that he has not yet taken office.”
Russian political commentators’ celebrations
While Russian officials consistently expressed concern and noted the potential for instability, some Russian political commentators gleefully reacted to Trump’s proposals on late-night talk shows broadcasted by Russian state television channels. While these views are expressed on Russian state television channels, they represent the extremes of Russian commentary and diverge from the statements by Russian officials and some Russian scholars. Such remarks were met with laughter on the talk show.
Television host Vladimir Solovyov gave a thumbs-up to Trump’s statements and said that “Finland, Warsaw, the Baltics, Moldova, and Tallinn should come back home.” He remarked: “Do you think I’m joking? No! They should all rejoin the Russian Empire, followed by Alaska.” During the same talk show, military analyst Mikhail Khodaryonok said, “After Trump’s statement, in my opinion, we can now consider special military operations as the norm for resolving arguments between countries. The silence of European leaders clearly confirms this.”
During his weekly news show, television host Dmitry Kiselyov expressed that he is almost certain that Trump will succeed in his determination to expand American territory because “Denmark parted with Greenland’s sovereignty long before Andersen’s fairy tales” and predicts that NATO countries would not protect Denmark. Kiselyov said it would be funny if countries from the “Old World” tried to impose sanctions against the USA in response to territorial expansion. Kiselyov asks, “What if Trump gets away with all this? Where will he stop? And will others be allowed to act this way?”
Russian scholars’ skepticism
Russian political experts suggest that the likelihood of Trump getting involved in a conflict with NATO allies over Greenland is low because Trump’s proposal is unlikely to find substantial support from the Greenlandic population.
Political scientist Fyodor Lukyanov notes that even though independence is a policy goal of Greenland, Denmark has never denied the rights of Greenlanders to self-determination. Greenland’s status within the Kingdom of Denmark is unlikely to change. “Even with Trump’s extravagance and the extraordinary times we are living through, it is difficult to imagine the forcible seizure of part of the territory of a NATO member country by another NATO member country,” said Lukyanov.
Although Greenland represents a lion’s share of rare earth minerals, political scientist Malek Dudakov argues that an invasion of Greenland should not be expected and that Trump is merely engaged in “political trolling.” Political scientist Dmitry Zhuravlev called Trump’s statements naïve, but said that Trump’s desire to expand US control in North America is connected to shipping and that “Greenland is a plug on our Northern Sea Route.”
Political analyst Konstantin Blokhin doubted that the USA would acquire Greenland, but suggested the situation is “about negotiating with Denmark on favorable conditions for deploying American military infrastructure there.” International relations scholar Fyodor Voitolovsky similarly posited that Trump’s proposal is not intended to acquire Greenland but rather to prepare the American public for new deployments of US military forces and medium-range land-based nuclear and non-nuclear missiles on the territory of Greenland.
Regardless of the skepticism, the development has attracted ample attention from the Russian political commentator community. Whether or not Trump has a chance of realizing his proposal to acquire Greenland, Russian experts are noting the development as a possible death knell of the liberal institutionalist framework in the Arctic. Military researcher Ilya Kramnik wrote that, “for the ‘rules-based order,’ this will be a beautiful wreath for the grave.”