The Arctic This Week Take Five: Week of January 14, 2019

The Shifting Pole

This week it was announced that the World Magnetic Model (WMM) will be updated on January 30 of this year instead of the planned 2020 date. Researchers have been forced to make an early update to the model as the Earth’s north magnetic pole is shifting at a rate of 50 km per year, faster than previous predictions had estimated. The wandering pole is driven by changes in the Earth’s core which is made up of liquid iron. The WMM is a representation depicted as a map that shows deviations in the magnetic field lines. It is set to point the way to the poles, and it is vital for business and military purposes or anybody that needs a very specific location (ABC News, Science Alert).

Take 1: While an updated WMM might not be necessary for your average person as the fractional error won’t affect car navigation systems or phones, it is fundamentally necessary for those organizations that depend on pinpoint accuracy. The request for an update was made by the U.S. military as it, NATO, and other militaries utilize the model for navigation in the North. Equally, shipping companies depend on the accuracy of the model for their navigational purposes. With the rapidly shifting poles it is fundamentally necessary to keep the model as up to date as possible.

Permafrost Heating Up All Over the World

On January 16, a new study was published in the journal of Nature Communications. The study reveals that over the past decade (2007-2016) permafrost around the world has significantly warmed up, releasing and continuing to release methane and carbon dioxide. The data for the study were taken from a global network of permafrost test sites, and it showed that specifically in the Arctic permafrost, areas warmed up half a degree (Fahrenheit). The highest increase in temperature was noted in the Siberian Arctic where the temperature rose by 1.5 within that time period (Inside Climate News, Nature Communications).

Take 2: It has been noted several times in the articles reviewed in Take 5 that warming permafrost has negative global consequences. Methane and carbon dioxide trap heat increasing the rate of global warming. This study, having examined the data from various sites, presents a clear picture of how much warmer it has gotten in permafrost regions, and how this will continue to contribute to an ever-increasing amount of methane and carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. It is only in seeing and understanding the bigger picture that scientists and policy makers can hope to create ways to mitigate the consequences of a warming world.

The U.S. Navy Plans to Send a Warship to the Arctic

This week, U.S. Navy Secretary Richard Spencer announced that the Navy plans to conduct a freedom of navigation operation (FONOP) in Arctic waters sometime in the coming month. When this happens, it will be the first time the U.S. has conducted this type of operation in the Arctic. The Secretary also announced that the Navy intends to utilize an old base in Adak, Alaska to station resources for future operations. In the future the base could be home to surface ships and patrol aircraft (Independent, RT, U.S. Naval Institute).

Take 3: The U.S. conducts several FONOPs throughout a year, and for the most part they are considered routine operations. Earlier this month the U.S. conducted a FONOP in the South China Sea. Yet, for being a routine operation FONOPs are often perceived by other nations as a show of force. Indeed, China issued a strong statement condemning U.S. actions in the South China Sea after its recent FONOP. In regards to the Arctic, the U.S. has finally begun to pay more attention to what is happening in the area. With countries like China and Russia staking a claim, the U.S. needs to and has begun to show that it too has a vested interest in what happens in the Arctic. Expect FONOPs to become a regular feature in the Arctic as interest continues to grow (The Navy Times).

The Norwegian Snow Crab Dilemma

On January 15, Norway’s Supreme Court began hearing arguments for and against the right of EU ships to fish for snow crab off Arctic islands north of Norway. The argument is whether the snow crab is a sedentary species that exclusively lives in Norwegian waters, or a species that moves around. If it is deemed a sedentary species that would mean that it is a resource that belongs to the continental shelf of Norway, and the country has complete jurisdiction over it. If not sedentary then the resource would no longer be exclusively Norwegian. The court case comes after a lower court convicted an EU fishing vessel for illegal fishing in the waters off the coast of Svalbard (Oil Price, Reuters).

Take 4: A final verdict is expected in three to four weeks, and it is considered to be of huge importance. Snow crab is a natural resource, just like oil and gas, and the fear is that if EU can stake a claim over the snow crab, it would be harder in the future for the Norwegian government to secure its claim over potential oil and gas resources. That is a huge concern for an oil and gas dependent country like Norway. Yes, improved technology and the warming Arctic has made new areas more accessible for oil and gas exploitation, but it is quite possible that Norway might see more competition over what it originally considered its own resources.

The High North Dialogue 2019

This year from April 3-4, the High North Dialogue will take place in Bodø, Norway. The two-day conference will focus on “Business in the Arctic” and aims to bring leaders and innovators to discuss ideas for the future of the region. The High North Dialogues have been occurring since 2007 and have been a great way to bring current, interested, and potential future stakeholders (The High North Dialogue).

Take 5: With more than 350 participants from a variety of sectors the conference not only creates a platform for information sharing but also for innovation. The focus on business this year highlights the growing material interests that exist in the region. The hope is that the participants will not only discuss the business benefits of the region but also discuss how to mitigate future problems related to increased business activities as well as the role of indigenous communities.