Securing Our Digital Lifelines: Quantum Technology and the Battle for Arctic Supremacy

View of the U.S.-Canada fourth joint mission to map the continental shelf in the Arctic Ocean in August and September 2011. Photo: U.S. Department of State

The battle for Arctic supremacy is heating up as melting ice and rising tensions heighten the need to secure undersea cables – our digital lifelines – amid growing infrastructure disruptions. Undersea cables are integral to our digital infrastructure; nearly 99 percent of everything you do online transmits through them. From the cat videos you watch late at night to your health records and bank log-in information – you depend on undersea cables daily. You are not alone; governments and militaries also rely on these same channels for transmitting sensitive information and transoceanic communications. Leveraging quantum technology will be essential to keep undersea cables secure, reliable, and resilient.

Just as nations once raced to harness atomic power for nuclear weapons, today’s challenge is to unlock the potential of quantum technology. This article explores the urgent need to develop and deploy new quantum sensors to safeguard undersea infrastructure in the European Arctic against the threat of hybrid attacks conducted by Russia and China. Securing telecommunications is not merely a matter of retaining a competitive edge in the Arctic; it is a necessity to fortify against attempts to undermine regional stability and security. By spearheading the development and adoption of innovative quantum sensors, Western Arctic states can enhance underwater situational awareness, strengthen deterrence, and establish frameworks for the use of quantum technology.

The European Arctic is no longer the quiet theater of ‘High North, low tension.‘ Russian and Chinese commercial and research vessels have begun to conduct deniable disruption operations in the region, targeting cables by dragging an anchor across the seabed. Notable incidents include cable disruptions between Svalbard and Norway in 2021 and between Finland and Estonia in 2023. Although the intentions of China and Russia remain unclear, their hybrid operations clearly pose a threat to regional security. With the demand for expanded connectivity across the Arctic, physical and cyber intrusions are increasingly alarming for national security, especially if an intruder intercepts, alters, or disrupts the flow of critical, time-sensitive information.

The rise in Russian and Chinese hybrid operations targeting Arctic lines of communication heightens regional tensions. The absence of delineated red lines for undersea infrastructure may weaken the credibility of NATO’s deterrence posture, undermine the alliance’s resolve in responding to attacks, and increase the risk of unintentional escalation. However, the NATO Undersea Infrastructure Coordination Cell has the potential to foster alliance cohesion, align threat perceptions regarding undersea infrastructure, and reduce the chance of accidental miscalculation. Red lines by themselves are insufficient and could prompt more antagonistic acts by adversaries that fall under the established threshold. Protecting critical undersea infrastructure requires a more robust and proactive solution.

Combating hybrid threats in the European Arctic requires enhanced undersea situational awareness, which the new generation of quantum sensors will provide. As global connectivity grows, both new and existing cables face increasingly complex challenges. Unlike traditional sensing technologies, quantum sensors utilize the principles of quantum physics, enabling rapid and precise environment monitoring. With quantum entanglement and superpositions, the sensors reduce the signal-to-noise ratio and increase surveillance scope. These capabilities are crucial amid the fear of Russia potentially deploying sophisticated unmanned underwater vehicles to disrupt and tap critical cables. Quantum sensors will not only serve as an advanced early-warning mechanism but also make such intrusions nearly impossible.

Quantum sensors will also act as a powerful deterrent. With their advanced early detection and superior security capabilities, they will discourage potential intruders from attempting to disrupt cables, as the risks associated with conducting such activities will be significantly higher. Enhanced situational awareness of the undersea theater will force antagonistic actors to carefully consider their actions as their chances of remaining undetected or unaccountable will be diminished. Ultimately, the shift in the security environment that will be brought about by quantum sensing capabilities will foster robust defense mechanisms and establish new standards of maritime conduct.

The transformative potential of quantum technology extends beyond undersea applications, enhancing communication security, intelligence gathering, and safeguarding critical infrastructure. Early adopters of quantum sensing will not only gain a competitive advantage but also set and shape the norms for its use. It is critical that the NATO Arctic states and their allies collectively develop this new generation of technology, strengthening telecommunication security and establishing themselves as global leaders in its responsible deployment.

Quantum technology is an emerging field in which being a first mover in its development will be critical to US-China competition. To prevent competitors and adversaries from gaining this expertise first for their hybrid operations, co-developing this advanced technology within the NATO architecture is essential to reducing costs and accelerating development. Just as the United States collaborated with its allies and partners to rapidly develop nuclear weapons, it is time to adopt the same approach with quantum technology.

We live in an era defined by digital warfare and rapid technological innovation. Tensions in the European Arctic are rising amid concerns over hybrid threats to our communication systems. Investing in and implementing quantum technology will enhance our resilience against future physical and cyber threats. We must build on the momentum of technological cooperation and mobilize private sector and academic innovators across the NATO alliance and its partners. The development and deployment of quantum technology will chart a course toward peace, stability, and security in the European Arctic and beyond.

Jana Ondrášková is a Program Assistant at Geostrategy North, the German Marshall Fund of the United States.