Polar Expertise in China's 14th Five-Year Plan

Drift ice camp in the middle of the Arctic Ocean as seen from the deck of the Chinese research icebreaker Xue Long. Photo: Timo Palo

The Arctic Institute China Series 2023

• Chinese Perspective on the Arctic and its Implication for Nordic Countries
• China and the Arctic: Reflections in 2023
• China’s Polar Silk Road: Long Game or Failed Strategy?
• The Arctic for China’s Green Energy Transition
• Russia’s Full-Scale Invasion of Ukraine: Impacts on China’s Climate Responsibility in the Arctic
• What the 14th Five-Year Plan says about China’s Arctic Interests
• The Arctic in China’s Subnational 14th Five-Year Plans
• Polar Expertise in China’s 14th Five-Year Plan
• China and the Arctic in 2023: Final Remarks

Science makes up the bulk of China’s activities in the Arctic. In past five-year plans, sections on science and technology have been the places to look for mentions of the Arctic. This is true for the fourteenth Five-Year Plan, too.¹⁾Eiterjord T (2023) What the 14th Five-Year Plan says about China’s Arctic Interests. The Arctic Institute, November 23, https://www.thearcticinstitute.org/14th-five-year-plan-chinas-arctic-interests/. Accessed 23 November 2023. In Chapter 4 (“Strengthening national strategic science capabilities”) of the new national plan, the development of heavy icebreakers and the establishment of a “three-dimensional polar observation platform” are listed as priority areas.²⁾State Council (2021) The 14th Five-Year Plan for Economic and Social Development and Long-range Objectives Through the Year 2035 of the People’s Republic of China [中华人民共和国国民经济和社会发展第十四个五年规划和2035年远景目标纲要], p. 13. The plan also states that the second phase of China’s polar expedition program will launch during the current five-year plan period.³⁾State Council (2021) The 14th Five-Year Plan for Economic and Social Development and Long-range Objectives Through the Year 2035 of the People’s Republic of China [中华人民共和国国民经济和社会发展第十四个五年规划和2035年远景目标纲要], p. 13. This program was initiated by the State Oceanic Administration, an agency which, prior to being incorporated into the new Ministry of Natural Resource in 2018, was tasked with developing China’s ocean policy. The program was launched in order to improve China’s “operational capabilities and governance capacity in the polar regions,” with the goal of turning China into a “polar great power.”⁴⁾Xinhua News Agency (2016) State Oceanic Administration: China to become a world-class polar power during the early stages of the 13th Five-Year Plan period [国家海洋局：“十三五”期间初步达到世界极地强国水平]. October 27, https://www.gov.cn/xinwen/2016-10/27/content_5125113.htm. Accessed 15 March 2021. In other words, to grow the country’s polar expertise.

Sprinkled throughout the national five-year plan are also other, more general items with implications for the Arctic. The plan calls for upgrading the country’s shipbuilding and marine engineering base and developing advanced marine technology,⁵⁾State Council (2021) The 14th Five-Year Plan for Economic and Social Development and Long-range Objectives Through the Year 2035 of the People’s Republic of China [中华人民共和国国民经济和社会发展第十四个五年规划和2035年远景目标纲要], p. 21. achieving global coverage with China’s homegrown satellite navigation and remote sensing infrastructure,⁶⁾State Council (2021) The 14th Five-Year Plan for Economic and Social Development and Long-range Objectives Through the Year 2035 of the People’s Republic of China [中华人民共和国国民经济和社会发展第十四个五年规划和2035年远景目标纲要], p. 27. boosting the development of small modular and marine nuclear reactors,⁷⁾National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration (2022) The 14th Five-Year Plan for the Modern Energy System [“十四五”现代能源体系规划], p. 27. and for the country’s scientific communities to take a more active part in international research projects.⁸⁾State Council (2021) The 14th Five-Year Plan for Economic and Social Development and Long-range Objectives Through the Year 2035 of the People’s Republic of China [中华人民共和国国民经济和社会发展第十四个五年规划和2035年远景目标纲要], p. 19.

The National Natural Science Foundation, China’s main funder of basic research, includes in its own five-year plan a section on “marine processes and polar environments,” stressing polar climate change research, tri-polar cryospheric research between the Arctic, Antarctic, and the Tibetan Plateau, as well as ecological and infrastructural safety related issues arising from polar warming. A second section of the plan is concerned with the design and maintenance of polar and deep-sea research infrastructure, such as for polar underwater acoustics research.⁹⁾National Natural Science Foundation (2022) National Natural Science Foundation of China 14th Five-Year Development Plan [国家自然科学基金“十四五”发展规划]. https://www.nsfc.gov.cn/publish/portal0/tab1392/. Accessed 17 July 2023. A five-year plan issued jointly by the National Development and Reform Commission and the China Meteorological Administration calls for improving the country’s remote sensing and meteorological monitoring capacity along the Belt and Road as well as in the Arctic and Antarctic regions; achieving full satellite remote sensing coverage of important marine areas and shipping routes; establishing a global blue-water navigation service using domestic technology; and, to explore the development of a weather service for Arctic sea routes.¹⁰⁾China Meteorological Administration (2021) The 14th Five-Year Plan for National Meteorological Development [全国气象发展“十四五”规划], p. 28.

Subnational plans

Polar technologies and research have also found their way into provincial five-year plans.¹¹⁾Eiterjord T (2023) The Arctic in China’s Subnational 14th Five-Year Plans. The Arctic Institute, November 30, https://www.thearcticinstitute.org/arctic-chinas-subnational-14th-five-year-plans/. Accessed 30 November 2023. The coastal province of Zhejiang, for example, plans to accelerate the development of ice-strengthened vessels, according to the five-year plan for the province’s manufacturing industry.¹²⁾Zhejiang Province Economic and Information Technology Department (2021) Zhejiang Province High-end Equipment Manufacturing Industry Development 14th Five-Year Plan [浙江省高端装备制造业发展“十四五”规划]. Neighboring Jiangsu province plans to strengthen development of polar cruise vessels.¹³⁾Jiangsu Province Department of Natural Resources (2022) 14th Five-Year Plan for Marine Economic Development in Jiangsu Province [江苏省“十四五”海洋经济发展规划]. Liaoning similarly lists polar research icebreakers and improving the country’s “polar observation system” among the maritime technologies it will focus on, with plans to establish a provincial “polar maritime technology innovation center.”¹⁴⁾Liaoning Provincial People’s Government (2022) The 14th Five-Year Plan for the Development of the Marine Economy in Liaoning [辽宁省“十四五”海洋经济发展规划]. A subsection of Shandong province’s shipping and maritime engineering five-year plan is dedicated to polar shipping, with heavy icebreakers and “polar deep-sea exploration vessels” listed as key technologies.¹⁵⁾Department of Industry and Information Technology of Shandong Province (2022) Shandong Province Shipbuilding and Offshore Engineering Equipment Industry Development 14th Five-Year Plan [山东省船舶与海洋工程装备产业发展“十四五”规划]. Shanghai has included polar research and the development of polar technologies in its five-year plan to become a global center for innovation, noting that it will build polar-going vessels and boost China’s capacity to develop polar technologies.¹⁶⁾Shanghai Municipal People’s Government (2021) Shanghai’s 14th Five-Year Plan for Building a Scientific and Technological Innovation Center with Global Influence [上海市建设具有全球影响力的科技创新中心“十四五”规划]. https://www.shanghai.gov.cn/nw12344/20210928/5020e5fdf5ac4c6fb4b219da6bb4b889.html. Accessed 18 July 2023. The megacity’s five-year plan for its “strategic industries” likewise includes icebreakers in its list of marine technologies to pursue.¹⁷⁾Shanghai Municipal People’s Government (2021) Shanghai’s 14th Five-Year Plan for the Development of Strategic Emerging Industries and Pilot Industries [上海市战略性新兴产业和先导产业发展“十四五”规划]. But more noteworthy is the province of Heilongjiang, which lists equipment for underwater operations in the polar regions, a “polar maritime emergency platform,” and nuclear icebreakers as priorities for the province’s research institutions.¹⁸⁾Heilongjiang Provincial People’s Government (2021) Outline of the 14th Five-Year Plan for the Economic and Social Development of Heilongjiang Province and Long-range Objectives Through the Year 2035 [黑龙江省国民经济和社会发展第十四个五年规划和2035年远景目标纲要].

Nuclear icebreakers were first introduced during the 13th Five-Year Plan period, when the technology was included in a plan for the country’s “strategic emerging industries” alongside several other polar-related technologies.¹⁹⁾State Council (2016) National Strategic Emerging Industries Development Plan for the 13th Five-Year Plan [“十三五”国家战略性新兴产业发展规划]. Several state-owned companies and research institutes have since embarked on a project to develop such vessels.²⁰⁾Eiterjord T (2023) Checking back in on China’s Nuclear Icebreaker. The Diplomat, February 13, https://thediplomat.com/2023/02/checking-back-in-on-chinas-nuclear-icebreaker/. Accessed 13 February 2023. The Heilongjiang provincial plan looks to be the only plan that makes a mention of the technology this time around. But leading up to the adoption of the current five-year plan, a deputy chairman of China’s National Nuclear Strategic Planning Research Institute included nuclear-powered icebreakers in his recommendations for the upcoming plan.²¹⁾Bai Y (2020) Proposals for Nuclear Power’s 14th Five-Year Plan and Medium- and Long-Term Development [核电“十四五”及中长期发展建议]. Dianli Shebei Guanli, 8, pp. 20-22. Experts have also emphasized polar vessels as a commercial shipbuilding niche. At the 2020 INMEX maritime industry convention in Guangzhou, a representative from the National Marine Data and Information Service argued that for the 14th Five-Year Plan period, China’s shipbuilding industry should make efforts to boost the country’s market share when it comes to higher value-added ship types, such as polar icebreakers.²²⁾Lü T (2020) INMEX CHINA 2020: Accelerating the High-Quality Development of the Maritime Industry in the 14th Five-Year Plan [INMEX CHINA 2020:加快推动“十四五”海事工业高质量发展]. Zhongguo Yuanyang Haiyun, 1, pp. 52-54.

National key research and development programs

More clues about China’s evolving Arctic interests and capabilities can be found in the many research projects being commissioned for the current five-year period. The Ministry of Science and Technology has published funding guidelines for several so-called “National Key Research and Development Programs.” These programs have been set up to support research and direct funding toward areas considered to be strategically important. Among the topics included in the current funding round, both the “Earth Observation and Navigation Program” and the “Key Technologies and Equipment for the Deep Sea and Polar Regions Program” heavily feature the Arctic, with the latter offering funding for the development of “technologies, equipment, and systems for utilizing polar resources and protecting polar environments,” and to improve China’s “polar monitoring and forecasting capabilities.”²³⁾Ministry of Science and Technology (2021) Project Declaration Guidelines for the 2021 National Key Research and Development Program “Deep Sea and Polar Key Technology and Equipment” Key Special Projects of the 14th Five-Year Plan [“十四五”国家重点研发计划“深海和极地关键技术与装备” 重点专项2021年度项目申报指南], p. 1. The guidelines go on to list a handful of polar projects and technologies, among them shipboard cranes designed for heavy lift operations involving manned submersibles and polar-capable unmanned amphibious vessels.²⁴⁾Ministry of Science and Technology (2021) Project Declaration Guidelines for the 2021 National Key R&D Program “Deep Sea and Polar Key Technology and Equipment” Key Special Projects of the 14th Five-Year Plan [“十四五”国家重点研发计划“深海和极地关键技术与装备” 重点专项2021年度项目申报指南].

Also included in these plans are projects with more direct connections to Beijing’s Polar Silk Road vision. Specifically, the ministry is looking to fund research on communication and navigation technologies for maritime activities in the Arctic that uses the country’s homegrown BeiDou Navigation Satellite System. Moreover, the guidelines call for the complete “indigenization” of sea ice remote sensing technology, with the reasoning that, “considering the importance of sea ice detection for Arctic shipping, polar research, and climate change, and China’s weak polar observation capabilities,” there is now a need to “make domestic breakthroughs in satellite-based remote sensing technology for sea ice in the Arctic, and to develop fully independent sea ice remote sensing systems and products.”²⁵⁾Ministry of Science and Technology (2021) Project Declaration Guidelines for the 2021 National Key R&D Program “Deep Sea and Polar Key Technology and Equipment” Key Special Projects of the 14th Five-Year Plan [“十四五”国家重点研发计划“深海和极地关键技术与装备” 重点专项 2021 年度项目申报指南], p. 6-7. These documents also set out deliverables such as developing shipboard integrated radio communication systems and navigation systems that can reliably receive ice chart information using the BeiDou satellite network; developing an information platform for navigation in the Arctic; a database of nautical charts “covering more than 80 percent of the Northeast Passage;” and, oddly specific, “30 nautical charts for the Northwest Passage.”²⁶⁾Ministry of Science and Technology (2021) Project Declaration Guidelines for the 2021 National Key R&D Program “Deep Sea and Polar Key Technology and Equipment” Key Special Projects of the 14th Five-Year Plan [“十四五”国家重点研发计划“深海和极地关键技术与装备” 重点专项 2021 年度项目申报指南], p. 6. The documents also list the development of high-resolution microwave sounding technology and the use of aerial remote sensing in the Arctic, both framed as steps toward developing regional shipping.²⁷⁾Ministry of Science and Technology (2021) Project Declaration Guidelines for the 2021 National Key R&D Program “Earth Observation and Navigation” Key Special Projects of the 14th Five-Year Plan [“十四五”国家重点研发计划”地球观测与导航”重点专项2021年度项目申报指南]. Previous funding programs have stressed the need to deepen science cooperation with Arctic states. Guidelines from 2018, for example, include the following objectives: “Constructing one Arctic ground station able to receive data from no less than five China-European satellites,” and establishing “two to three joint observation stations in the Arctic in order to provide China-European satellite-based remote sensing monitoring and forecasting products and for supporting research vessels and commercial traffic in the Arctic.”²⁸⁾Ministry of Science and Technology (2018) Suggestions for 2018 Project Declaration Guidelines for the Key Special Project of “Safety and Security of the Marine Environment” [“海洋环境安全保障”重点专项 2018 年度项目申报指南建议], p. 10-11.

But hard technology is not the only focus. Attention is also being paid to the softer aspects of navigating the Arctic. The ministry urges researchers to “comprehensively study the international conventions and national regulations governing Arctic shipping routes.”²⁹⁾Ministry of Science and Technology (2021) Project Declaration Guidelines for the 2021 National Key R&D Program “Deep Sea and Polar Key Technology and Equipment” Key Special Projects of the 14th Five-Year Plan [“十四五”国家重点研发计划“深海和极地关键技术与装备” 重点专项 2021 年度项目申报指南], p. 5. Similar guidelines published in 2019 emphasized legal research about the Arctic and called for forging closer collaborative ties with research communities in the region, setting the target to “establish international polar cooperation mechanisms with no fewer than two countries/regions” during that five-year period.³⁰⁾Ministry of Science and Technology (2019) Suggestions for 2019 Project Declaration Guidelines for the Key Special Project of “Safety and Security of the Marine Environment” [“海洋环境安全保障”重点专项 2019 年度项目申报指南建议], p. 3-4. This links back to the goals of improving China’s governance capacity in the polar regions and building up its domestic Arctic expertise.

Arctic expertise

By looking at its five-year plans and other related, more technical planning documents, we can better trace the contours of China’s evolving interests in the Arctic. The relative dearth of Chinese activities in the region should impel researchers to examine developments taking place domestically instead. The key role played by science and technology in Arctic geopolitics also means that documents detailing such developments can act as a useful proxies for understanding countries’ Arctic ambitions.

The outsize focus on remote sensing, communication, and monitoring technologies in China’s five-year plans demonstrates this. In the absence of any Arctic territory, research programs and remotely operated sensors allow non-Arctic states like China to develop a degree of situational awareness in the region. Climate research, shipping, and resource development all demand information by Arctic environments. Moreover, by boosting its knowledge about the Arctic, China can also grow its position as a regional knowledge producer and, in turn, improve the way it participates in regional governance.³¹⁾Bennett M and Eiterjord T (2023) Remote control? Chinese satellite infrastructure in and above the Arctic global commons. The Geographical Journal, 189(3), pp.398-41.

Speaking at the Arctic Circle Forum in Tokyo in March, Gao Feng, the country’s special envoy on Arctic Affairs, reiterated the four pillars of China’s Arctic policy: To understand, protect, develop, and participate in governing the region. But, he stressed, that first pillar, to understand, is becoming more and more important.³²⁾Arctic Circle (2023) Asian Countries in the Arctic. Available at: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8LSRK16bbqQ. Accessed 1 November 2023. Studying how China is gearing up to better understand the Arctic, politically as well as environmentally, should be a focus for research that wants to understand the country’s trajectory in the region.