When ‘Perma’ Is No Longer ‘Perma’: Investigating Permafrost Degradation in Churchill, Manitoba

A Tundra Buggy carries tourists in Churchill, Manitoba, the town best known as “The Polar Bear Capital of the World”. Photo: Emma Street

Permafrost thaw is one of the world’s most pressing climate problems, already disrupting lifestyles, livelihoods, economies, and ecosystems in the north, and threatening to spill beyond the boundaries of the Arctic as our planet continues to warm. To examine the effects of permafrost degradation, and increase our understanding of what this phenomenon means for the future of the region (and the world), The Arctic Institute’s new two-part permafrost series aims to analyze the topic from scientific, security, legal, and personal perspectives.

The Arctic Institute Permafrost Series 2020

• Permafrost Thaw in a Warming World: The Arctic Institute’s Permafrost Series Fall-Winter 2020
• Takeaways from the Arctic Tundra
• Dwindling Arctic Sea Ice and Impacts to Permafrost Health
• Frozen-Ground Cartoons: A Multiform Innovative Project for Permafrost Science Communication and Outreach
• The Intersection of U.S. Military Infrastructure & Alaskan Permafrost Through the 21st Century
• When ‘Perma’ Is No Longer ‘Perma’: Investigating Permafrost Degradation in Churchill, Manitoba
• A Blessing and a Curse: Melting Permafrost in the Russian Arctic
• Carbon: Three Observations on Life, Death, and Uncertainty in the Permafrost
• Translating Newfound Permafrost Knowledge into Climate Action

Positioned at the junction of the boreal forest, the Arctic tundra, and the Hudson Bay, Churchill, Manitoba is an ecoregion treasure influenced by the Canadian Shield and subsurface permafrost. The small isolated community, only accessible by plane or train, is home to nearly 900 year-round residents. Despite the size of the town, Churchill has a rich history marked by the arrival of Pre-Dorset peoples around 1700 B.C.; the establishment of a Hudson Bay Company settlement in 1717; the build and invasion of the Prince of Wales Fort in the 1780s; and an extensive military presence, including a rocket research range, in the 1900s. 

In recent years, Churchill’s Northern Studies Centre and the Port of Churchill have brought attention to the town. However, it is perhaps best known as the ‘Polar Bear Capital of the World.’ An estimated 6,000-10,000 tourists travel to Churchill to see the bears annually. The town’s polar bear ecotourism has been a key factor in supporting the local economy since the Arctic port of Churchill temporarily closed in 2015. However, as climate warming affects Churchill’s permafrost, the thaw threatens the tourism industry, the expansion of the port, and Churchill’s connection to the rest of Canada.

Permafrost thaw: a local, regional, and global problem

Permafrost can be found beneath approximately 50 percent of Canada, measuring more than 700 meters in thickness in Canada’s High Arctic, and reaching as far south as the Gulf of St. Lawrence, near Blanc Sablon, Quebec.¹⁾Canadian Permafrost Association (2020) Permafrost 101. https://canadianpermafrostassociation.ca/What-is-Permafrost.htm. Churchill sits in the zone of continuous permafrost, where more than 80 percent of the area is underlain by permafrost year round. In 1970 Churchill’s permafrost was found to be 100-120 feet thick²⁾Brown (1970) Permafrost in Canada: Its Influence on Northern Development. Toronto: University of Toronto Press. and the active layer – the top layer of permafrost that thaws and becomes cryotic with seasonal variability – of Churchill’s permafrost has measured on average less than one meter in depth.³⁾Macrae, M. L., Brown, L. C., Duguay, C. R., Parrott J. A., & Patron, R. M. (2014) Observed and Projected Climate Change in the Churchill Region of the Hudson Bay Lowlands and Implications for Pond Sustainability. Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research, 46(1): 272-285. Churchill’s infrastructure depends on this perennially cryotic ground to carry the load of buildings and to act as an anchor against frost action. Further, permafrost influences Churchill’s landscape and the surrounding Arctic ecosystem by acting as a barrier to the movement of water, and limits vegetation to non-vascular low-lying plants such as lichen and mosses, shrubs, or few trees with high tolerance for harsh environments, as permafrost limits water, nutrient supplies, and root growth to the shallow active layer.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reported in 2018 that the Arctic is warming two to three times faster than the global average. The same report raised alarms that widespread permafrost thaw is projected to occur in the 21^st century, driven by the significant Arctic warming, and that there is a potential to lose an estimated 70 percent of near-surface permafrost worldwide by 2100. Consistent with global trends, Churchill’s mean annual temperature has increased 0.5 ˚C per decade between 1971 and 2000.⁴⁾Gagnon, A., & Gough, W. (2005). Climate change scenarios for the Hudson Bay region: An intermodal comparison. Climate Change 69(2): 269-297. Furthermore, annual precipitation in Churchill increased by 1.55 mm per year between 1943 and 2009.⁵⁾Macrae, M. L., Brown, L. C., Duguay, C. R., Parrott J. A., & Patron, R. M. (2014) Observed and Projected Climate Change in the Churchill Region of the Hudson Bay Lowlands and Implications for Pond Sustainability. Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research, 46(1): 272-285. These factors have accelerated permafrost thaw in the Hudson Bay region since the 1950s. A growing active layer has been recorded in Churchill, and permafrost has already disappeared in some areas of the Wapusk National Park just east of the town.⁶⁾Zhang, Y., Li, J., Wang, X., Chen, W., Sladen, W., Dyke., Dredge, L., … Brook, R. K. (2011) Modelling and mapping permafrost at high spatial resolution in Wapusk National Park, Hudson Bay Lowlands. Canadian Journal of Earth Sciences 49(8): 925-937. Trends indicate that the mean annual air temperatures in northern Manitoba will warm by 3.8-6.8 ˚C by 2100⁷⁾Camil, P. (2005) Permafrost Thaw Accelerates in Boreal Peatlands During Late 20th Century Climate Warming. Climate Change 68(1): 135-152. and models suggest that permafrost may thaw from 24 to 67 percent and 35 to 100 percent for the 2040-2069 and 2070-2099 periods, respectively.⁸⁾Gagnon, A., & Gough, W. (2005). Climate change scenarios for the Hudson Bay region: An intermodal comparison. Climate Change 69(2): 269-297.

The damaging effects of permafrost degradation on civil infrastructure is clear: the decreased bearing capacity of thawing and unstable permafrost threatens buildings, pipelines, and transportation networks with damage, failure, and collapse. Infrastructure damage has already been seen in areas of thawing permafrost worldwide: 46 percent of the roadbed under Russia’s Baikal-Amur railroad has been deformed by thawing ground; the annual ground subsistence under the Seyda-Vorkuta railroad has increased from 10-15 cm in the mid-1970s to 50 cm in the mid-1900s; and runways and pipelines in many Siberian cities are approaching states of emergency.⁹⁾Streletskiy, D. A., Shiklomanov, N. I., & Nelson, F. E. (2012) Permafrost, Infrastructure and Climate Change: a GIS-Based Landscape Approach to Geotechnical Modeling. Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research 44(3): 368-380. In the Russian coal-mining town of Vorkuta, about 40 percent of buildings have become deformed from changes in the ground, and in Norilsk, the largest city built on permafrost, about 60 percent of the buildings have been damaged by permafrost thaw, and 10 percent of the houses in the city have been abandoned.¹⁰⁾Schreiber, M. (2018, May 10). The Race to Save Arctic Cities as Permafrost Melts. Bloomberg City Lab. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-10/melting-permafrost-and-the-housing-crisis-in-the-arctic.. It is estimated that nearly four million people and 70 percent of current infrastructure in the permafrost domain are in areas with high potential for thaw of near-surface permafrost. Churchill has been identified as one of the ‘hot spots’ for potential hazardous damage.¹¹⁾Hjort, J., Karjalainen, O., Aalto, J., Westermann, S., Romanovsky, V. E., Nelson, F. E., Etzelmuller, B., & Luoto, M. (2018) Degrading permafrost puts Arctic infrastructure at risk by mid-century. Nature Communications 9(5157): 1-9.

Local infrastructure and economy under threat

As permafrost thaw accelerates, it threatens infrastructure vital to Churchill’s existence. Damage to the Winnipeg-Churchill train line would have significant consequences for Churchill, as it is the only land connection between the town and the rest of Canada. The importance of the train line as a lifeline was evidenced when rail service temporarily stopped in May of 2017 due to flooding. The halted rail service left Churchill residents with high living expenses, soaring food costs and concerns of malnutrition, and also the highest gasoline price in all of Canada. In June 2018, Churchill’s propane supply hit critically low levels. Without the train line, propane ultimately had to be brought in by sea, which resulted in significant shipment gaps: propane arrived in October 2017, and the town’s supply was not refuelled again until the middle of July 2018. This caused concern for residents’ safety as housing is propane-heated in Churchill. While the train line has been repaired and is currently operational, the potential for future damage raises concerns for food, household goods, and fuel access.

The sustainability of Churchill’s train line is also key to the expansion of the Port of Churchill, Canada’s only Arctic Port. The port, which primarily ships grain, was closed in 2016 following the dissolvement of the Canadian Wheat Board, and reopened in 2019 under new ownership and a federal financial commitment of $117 million, shared with the rail line. There is now significant discussion to expand operations at the port, as shipping activity has been growing across the Arctic with increasingly accessible northern routes and longer ice-free periods. The United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports that ship and pleasure craft transits through Canada’s Northwest Passage have already doubled and quadrupled over the past decade, and that the distance travelled by ships in Arctic Canada grew from 365,000 to 920,000 km between 1990 and 2015.¹²⁾IPCC (2018) Summary For Policymakers. In: Special Report on Global warming of 1.5 degrees. https://www.ipcc.ch/2018/10/08/summary-for-policymakers-of-ipcc-special-report-on-global-warming-of-1-5c-approved-by-governments/. Accessed 28 October 2020 Gagnon and Gough even suggest that the warmer climate and less frequent ice hazard might result in lower insurance premiums for shipping companies.¹³⁾Gagnon, A., & Gough, W. (2005). Climate change scenarios for the Hudson Bay region: An intermodal comparison. Climate Change 69(2): 269-297.

In addition to expanding operations, there is discussion for the Port of Churchill to diversify its exports. A Federal-Provincial Task Force on the Future of Churchill published a report in 2013 presenting the idea of exporting bulk potash, of which there are significant quantities in Churchill’s catchment area, to Latin and South American markets, particularly Brazil’s large agricultural sector. The report also suggested shipping crude oil through the Port of Churchill as there are capacity constraints in North America’s pipeline network, and relayed that producers have expressed interest in this initiative.¹⁴⁾Federal-Provincial Task Force on the Future of Churchill, 2013 The diversification and expansion of activity at the Port of Churchill would bring significant employment and development opportunities to the town. However, the sustainability and safety of these practices are threatened under permafrost degradation, as the at-risk Winnipeg-Churchill train line may not be able to support transportation to and from ships.

Effects on the local tourism industry and Indigenous populations

Prior to its closure in 2016, activity at the Port of Churchill made up 30 percent of Churchill’s economy, while tourism accounted for more than double that. The United Nations World Tourism Organization, United Nations Environmental Programme, and the World Meteorological Organization have named climate change as the greatest challenge to the sustainability of the global tourism industry in the 21^st century. This threat is certainly true in Churchill, as thawing permafrost threatens the longevity of the town’s tourism. Infrastructure degradation in the form of damaged train lines and runways may make transporting tourists a serious problem.¹⁵⁾Ren, C., & Chimirri, D. (2018). Arctic Tourism – more than an industry? https://www.thearcticinstitute.org/arctic-tourism-industry/.  

Furthermore, lodging and other infrastructure such as restaurants, souvenir shops, etc. needed for tour groups also face instability as permafrost degrades. There is also concern that the permafrost ground on which tundra buggies travel to see the polar bears in the Wapusk National Park and the Churchill Wildlife Management Area will degrade into thermokarst ponds – shallow bodies of water that occur when ice-rich permafrost thaw and release moisture – or other inaccessible landforms. While the quantity and movement of the tundra buggies are limited by permits and a set of established trails created by the military in the 1950s, there is still some concern of movement on delicate permafrost terrain as the compression of permafrost and the vegetation above can influence insulation, and permafrost warming by extension.

Another area of concern in Churchill is how the connection between permafrost terrain and culture will shift with future degradation, as according to the 2011 National Household Survey, 51 percent of Churchill’s residents identify as Aboriginal, (Chipewyan, Swampy Cree, Métis, Dene, and Inuit).¹⁶⁾Statistics Canada, 2013 One aspect of this is the reduced access to culturally significant foods. In a research study on nutrition and consumption habits in Churchill, Boerchers et al.¹⁷⁾Boerchers, M., Metcalf, M., & Storie, C. (2015). Food security and consumer habits in Churchill, Manitoba, Geographical Essays 17(1): 8-17 found that 25 percent of surveyed individuals indicated that they source their meat locally, and 90 percent of respondents indicated that they know someone who hunts. Hunting and foraging for flora and fauna such as geese, caribou, fireweed, and Labrador tea in Churchill has a deep connection to Indigenous cultural identity. The traditional ecological knowledge pertaining to food species and traditional food consumption has been passed down for generations. The access and consumption of traditional foods furthermore lowers the incidence of food insecurity and is found to be more nutritionally dense. However, as permafrost thaws the landscape will begin to change and develop a thicker active layer, thermokarst ponds, unstable peat banks, and changing flora and fauna patterns. Plant community composition will likely change to hydrophilic vegetation with deeper rooting profiles and sedge dominant species, influencing animal foraging patterns and movement in turn. These changes threaten the structure of the local ecosystem and the access to hunting and culturally significant foods.

Conclusion

It is clear that proactive strategies are needed to protect Churchill’s economic and cultural activity from devastating permafrost thaw. Various techniques have been used to slow permafrost degradation: these include tactics to change the albedo or insulating factors of the local environment, such as mulching, stilting buildings, or painting spaces white; and passive cooling techniques like thermosyphons — convection devices that uses pipes to extract heat from the ground. Future research is needed to determine which mitigation strategies might work best for Churchill’s permafrost thaw. Determining the most appropriate method is an important step in constructing Churchill’s development strategy and may prove useful for other towns in permafrost transition. However, as permafrost thaw is largely affected by global climate trends, stopping the devastating changes will require a coordinated effort from actors both within Arction regions, and outside of these areas.

Emma Street has recently finished her Master of Environmental Studies at York University (Toronto), where her research oriented around the economic and cultural implications of thawing permafrost in subarctic and Arctic environments.