The Arctic This Week Take Five: Week of October 8, 2018
IPCC Publishes Special Report on Global Warming
On October 8, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released its latest special report on global warming. The new report examines the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial, and lays out various pathways to stabilize global warming at 1.5 °C. It was written and edited by 91 scientists from 40 countries over a period of more than two years, relying on more than 6,000 scientific studies. The report was commissioned by the UN after the Paris climate agreement in 2015 where countries agreed to keeping temperatures below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C. What the new IPCC report shows is that the terms agreed in the Paris Agreement are no longer sufficient to limit climate change. Without major cuts in greenhouse gas emissions, 1.5 °C can be reached by 2040, a rate faster than previously thought. Limiting warming to just 1.5 °C is possible but require a rapid and urgent transformation of society and the world economy. Without such changes temperatures will continue to rise, having catastrophic consequences (IPCC, YLE News).
Take 1: The new report is worrisome, and urgent changes are clearly needed to limit warming to 1.5 °C. Action now can help cut the risk of extreme heat, drought, floods, and poverty. Dying corals, melting sea ice and rising sea levels is a reality, but will be far worse if the temperature increase is 2°C. In the Arctic, the overall goal of the 1.5 °C limit means an increase of between 6-8 degrees in the Arctic region. This will have negative impacts on flora and fauna, and the local communities and indigenous peoples that rely on the Arctic for their livelihoods. At least some of the climate impacts can be avoided by limiting global warming to 1.5°C compared to 2°C. For example, the likelihood of an Arctic Ocean free of sea ice in summer would be once per century with global warming of 1.5°C instead of at least once per decade with 2°C.
Sahara Desert Dust Causing Arctic Trouble
New York University Abu Dhabi (NYUAD) published this week a report revealing that millions of tonnes of dust from the Sahara Desert is making its way to the Arctic. The dust has the potential to speed up global warming as it causes conditions that facilitate further ice melt. Studying a 2011 cyclone in Morocco, the researchers were able to determine that dust can travel 4,000 km in three or four days. The findings from the study can be applied to current climate change models predicting sea level and temperature changes (EurekAlert!, ScienceDaily).
Take 2: In order to really understand and significantly reduce the effects of climate change, it remains of importance to gain a clear picture of all the factors involved. The research published by NYUAD helps make that picture clearer. Dust, just like black carbon, is absorbed into the ice where it absorbs sunlight, increasing heat. The dust, also being nutrient rich, creates the fertile conditions necessary for increased bacteria and algae growth, also increasing heat. Lastly, the airborne dust affects cloud formation and precipitation by absorbing and emitting long wave radiation.
Acidification’s Negative Effects on Arctic Economies
The Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP), a Working Group of the Arctic Council, released a report this week on the socio-economic impacts of acidification in the Arctic Ocean. In order to determine the effects of acidification on the regional countries’ economies, the researchers conducted five case studies: Norwegian kelp and sea urchins, Barents Sea cod, Greenland shrimp fishery, Alaska’s fishery sector, and Arctic cod in Western Canadian Arctic. While they determined that there might be some positive impacts for some organisms, others will suffer increasing decline. Acidification contributes to decreased harvest yields and the potential collapse of some fisheries (AMAP).
Take 3: Economies that are dependent on the sea’s bounty stand to lose out as acidification in the Arctic Ocean increases. For example, in the Norwegian Sea urchin case study, simulations showed a seven-fold decrease in harvest over the next 30 years. While sea urchins are not a major export, the country does export a large amount of other sea life, and any potential future growth of the sea industry will be stymied as conditions worsen. Arctic countries must continue to work together as a regional bloc to not only face issues like this but to be a voice to the greater international community. Arctic Ocean acidification does not all begin in the Arctic. The rest of the world contributes to what will one day potentially be a greater economic issue for the region and its people.
Out with the Old in with the New
Research published by NASA scientist Ron Kwok of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory on October 12 details the loss of Arctic ice cover since 1958. The report shows that since then, older multiyear ice has shrunk by 800,000 square miles. 70 percent of today’s ice is seasonal. It melts within a single year. To gather this extensive data, Kwok combined decades of U.S. navy submarine measurements (declassified) with data from four satellites (IOPscience, NASA).
Take 4: The proportion now between seasonal and multiyear ice has changed. Now there is more seasonal ice than ever before. This creates a potential hazard situation as seasonal ice can be more easily pushed by the wind. The wind causes the ice to pile along coastlines, as was the case in 2013, causing damage and making the ice cover thicker for longer periods of time. Also, ice growth by season becomes increasingly difficult to predict, affecting not just animals that depend on the ice for food but also the communities that rely on the ice to hunt.
Let’s Meet and Talk in Arkhangelsk
This week, details have begun to emerge for the upcoming sixth international forum, Arctic Projects: Today and Tomorrow. The forum will take place in the northern Russian city of Arkhangelsk from 19-20th of October. It will involve more than 300 delegates representing businesses, state, and educational institutions. The forum is described by attendants as being the “most effective platform” for discussions on current and future projects. This year the forum hopes to focus in part on the financial and investment aspects of projects in the Arctic, with the hope of establishing stable relationships with banks and credit organisations (TASS).
Take 5: Forums like this one are designed to not only increase communication but also collaboration between the various stakeholders. This year’s focus on the finance sector highlights the importance and need for continuing investment in the region. While many stakeholders have ideas of what they would like to accomplish in the Arctic, fundamentally it boils down to what can be funded. Working together, the various stakeholders can all get some of what they want done. It will be interesting to see what this forum accomplishes next week, and what future projects and collaboration result from it.