The Arctic This Week Take Five: Week of November 8, 2021

US Democrats’ Bill Could Reverse Oil Drilling Program in the Alaskan Arctic National Wildlife Refuge

The latest version of the proposed US Democratic social spending and climate bill released October 28 contains a provision that will close the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to oil drilling and cancel existing leases, Audubon reported on November 8. If passed successfully by the US Congress, the measure will repeal a 2017 mandate passed by the previous Trump administration requiring at least two oil lease sales in the Arctic Refuge by the end of 2024. The bill will make permanent the current suspension of all oil and gas activities implemented by executive order in June 2021 by the Biden Administration while pending an environmental review of the leasing program. (Audubon)

Take 1: As the 26th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26) progresses, the new budget the Democrats are seeking to pass, forms a significant part of the current US government’s green ambitions. The fate of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge is important to the Arctic region. At the local level, this ban will come as an immense relief to the Gwich’in people who have campaigned against the oil leases with the nonprofit Alaska Wilderness League environmentalist organisation. The decision to revoke the oil leases is furthermore an important step in reducing greenhouse emissions. However, as a state with deep oil interests, the decision imposed by the federal government will likely greatly antagonize the state of Alaska. The abrupt U-turn decision is likely to dissuade investors from making any future attempts to drill in the region- even if a Republican government comes to power again. There is also an internal rift in the Democratic party over the Biden administration’s green ambitions, particularly due to opposition from traditionally energy extracting states such as West Virginia. This is important because the adoption of the bill depends on approval by the US Senate- where West Virginia Democratic senator Joe Manchin remains a crucial vote. The need for unity in the Democratic party as the administration maintains the smallest of political majorities may see President Biden back down on climate change action ambitions, with the moratorium on oil extraction in the Arctic National Wildlife League remaining on borrowed time once again. (AP News, New York Post)

Inuit Circumpolar Council Granted Consultative Status at the International Maritime Organization

Indian Country Today reported on November 10 that the Inuit Circumpolar Council (ICC) has been granted provisional consultative status with the International Maritime Organization (IMO) following the 34th Extraordinary Meeting of the IMO Council on November 8. The IMO is a specialized agency of the United Nations, with responsibility for the international environmental and security-related regulation of shipping. The provisional status granted to the ICC requires it to submit a report in two years time on its contributions to the IMO. (Indian Country Today)

Take 2: The decision to include the ICC in the IMO’s plans and negotiations for Arctic shipping routes is undoubtedly a big step, for both the self-determination of Inuit Peoples as well as the future of Arctic shipping. The granting of consultative status is an essential acknowledgment of the Inuit right to self-determination in the region as well as the threat the expansion of Arctic shipping represents to their communities. Chair of the Inuit Circumpolar Council, Dalee Sambo Dorough, has made it clear that the ICC aims to protect the local marine environment on which Inuit Peoples depend. However, making sure that Inuit voices will actually be heard in the IMO will still be a major challenge for the ICC, especially as many of the current consultative members in the IMO represent business interests. Nevertheless, the ICC has an impressive multinational capacity, representing Inuits across Alaska, Canada, Greenland and Northern Russia. The representation presents an excellent option for the ICC to have a greater say in the IMO. Lobbying these respective governments to put pressure on the IMO will be an influential move, as the nations collectively represent a significant portion of Arctic shipping. However, this strategy can also threaten the increased self-determination the ICC is hoping to gain from the new consultative status. Temporarily reducing current calls for further Indigenous autonomy in the region may help sway national governments to put some pressure on the IMO while creating legislation that would help the Arctic marine environment. (Indian Country Today, Inuit Circumpolar Council)

Political Tensions as Greenlandic Parliament Votes to Ban Uranium Mining 

Kalaallit Nunaata Radioa reported on November 10 that The Inatsisartut (Parliament of Greenland) narrowly passed legislation banning future uranium exploration and mining on the island this Tuesday. The law was opposed by opposition parties Siumut (pro-independence social democrats), Demokraatit (liberal unionists), and Atassut (liberal conservative unionists). The opposition by Siumut was cited as due to concerns that the law will be the first in a push by the recently elected government to ban the extraction of raw materials altogether in Greenlandic territory. (Kalaallit Nunaata Radioa)

Take 3: Banning uranium extraction is a landmark decision for the Greenlandic parliament. The ruling party Inuit Ataqatigiit (pro-independence democratic socialist) is likely to continue with its environmental agenda, lending confidence to the fears of the Siumut party over additional extractive bans such as on the radioactive mineral thorium. This move is exposing divisions between parties that are generally united in questions of economic development. Despite their shared social democratic outlook, the opposition party Siumut is now in deeper opposition to the incumbent government than it has ever been before. On the other hand, this move will improve relations with the government back at ‘home.’ The Danish national government has had a cautious stance on the mining of uranium and other radioactive substances on the island since first proposed. Exports require strict control so as to not compromise Danish adherence to international conventions such as the treaty on Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). However, mineral and crude oil extraction also promises an upswing and diversification of the Greenlandic economy away from its current market dominated by maritime product exports. The economic benefits of mineral extraction is therefore likely to become the centrepiece of any Siumut campaign against the current government. It is clear that the question of raw material extraction will rule the Greenlandic political debate for some time to come. (DR, Kalaallit Nunaata Radioa, World Nuclear Association)

Russia Persists with Arctic Shipping Goals Despite Slow Progress

The Barents Observer reported on November 7 that Russia is continuing to persist in its objective to develop year-round navigation by 2023-2024 throughout the Northern Sea Route (NSR), the large-scale infrastructure project which aims to expand both the Russian Arctic fleet and the ports along the Arctic coast of Russia. Recent slumps in the economy due to the global Covid-19 pandemic as well as sanctions against the Russian Federation have not halted the expansion of infrastructure in the region, including rescue services, satellite communications and internet access. By 2024, Deputy Prime Minister Trutnev aims to have the Arctic ports operating at 80 million tons in cargo turnover. (The Barents Observer)

Take 4: The choice of an economically struggling Russia to continue this major infrastructure programme in the Russian Far North may seem inadvisable to the outside observer. Yet, the effects of global warming make an Arctic sea route ‘gamble’ in truth a very calculated decision. Despite the effects of new climate change legislation, the Arctic sea route will likely become navigable year round in the foreseeable future as temperatures continue to rise. Despite current low shipping rates, the Russian government sees the project as a major force for economic improvement, from both a short-term and long-term perspective. Investment in the project provides a three-fold advantage to Russia: (1) immediate alleviation of the economy by generating public infrastructure, (2) a diversified economy and significant economic opportunity as shipping starts increasing in volume, and (3) increased geopolitical influence with the chance to reduce the severity of sanctions currently imposed by the West. Eventually, Russia hopes for the NSR to become an economically viable alternative to the Suez Canal for the global shipping industry. Betting on the Arctic shipping route as a competitor to the Suez Canal may indeed turn out to be a wise decision,and one that could also end some of the restrictions that have been forced on Russia as a result of Western sanctions. With 60% the length of the Suez Canal route, the Northern Sea Route offers an enticing alternative to many shipping companies eager to seek profit despite the geopolitical outcomes. Russia is likely to utilise any rapid expansion in trade and cargo turnover in the ports to enhance its political and economic presence in the Arctic. A successful NSR could therefore provide Russia a roadmap for more favourable conditions with the West. (Atlantic Council, Bloomberg, The Barents Observer)

Russian Ship Detained by Danish Authorities Over Legal Dispute in Canadian Arctic

Danish media TV2 reported on November 5 that the Danish Coast Guard has detained the Russian state-owned Akademik loffe research ship sailing off the Danish coast of Skagen due to a legal claim filed by the Canadian cruise firm One Ocean Expeditions. One Ocean Expeditions blames the crew of the ship for an accident that occurred when chartering it for a cruise in the Canadian Arctic in 2018, and is demanding 39.6 Million DKK (8.3 Million USD) in damages from the ship’s owner, the Russian Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, for costs incurred in relation to the accident as well as perceived breaches of contract. The ship has avoided charges, and dodged a first seizure attempt in Portugal last year. One Ocean Expeditions is now claiming the ship as collateral until the case is resolved. (Straits Times, TV2)

Take 5: The decision of the Danish authorities to detain the Russian ship after a request from a Canadian tour operator shows how interconnected issues in the Arctic region are. While the main issue lies between the Canadian firm and the Russian government, which is being strong-armed into paying damages, the decision by Denmark to detain the ship as collateral is also seen as a provocative action by Russia. A Russian warship was even reported covertly operating in the waters around the detained research ship by global maritime information system MarineTraffic, but this sighting was later denied by the Danish Defence Press Service as an error on the site. The refusal by the Danish authorities to go into detail about the supposed sighting does indicate, however, that the Danish government wants this case to be kept at the level of civil law. While no resolution to the request for damage compensation has been found at the time of writing, the Russian embassy has offered its consular services to the crew of the ship in an effort to get them back home to Russia. The Russian Federation and Denmark remain in ongoing talks over the fate of the ship. (TheLocal DK, TV2, YouGov)