The Arctic This Week Take Five: Week of November 29, 2021
New Study Finds Rain Will Replace Snow in the Arctic as Climate Heats
The Guardian reported on November 30 that a new study has found that rain will become more frequent than snow in the Arctic by 2080. Led by the University of Manitoba and co-authored by scientists at the U.S.-based National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC),the research showed that the switch will happen more than 20 years earlier than the estimations provided by previous climate models. The report was published on November 30 in the journal Nature Communications. (The Guardian)
Take 1: This anticipated switchover will have a range of wider consequences. In the Arctic, increased precipitation will directly reduce snow cover, while also increasing permafrost melt, flooding, and ice sheet formation. Among other local impacts, this could result in the mass starvation of species such as reindeer and caribou in the region. Many impacts will be less direct- but also more global in scope and severity. The implications of the rapidly melting sea ice are likely to be felt in regions even as far away as sunny California, where changes induced to the jet stream could cause increases in severe heat waves and forest fires. An even more serious issue stems from the melting of permafrost, which stores large amounts of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide and methane. Releasing these stores will result in a devastating positive climate feedback loop. With the research released in the wake of the 26th UN Climate Change Conference (COP26), the inadequacy of the promises made at the conference are becoming clear. Even with the latest round of climate targets now in place, global temperature increases are still set to hit 2.4 degrees. As this study indicates, while the temperature increase will affect weather patterns, this will in turn result in uncountable indirect effects. This shows the compounding nature of the climate crisis. Above all, the study results suggest that emission reductions are not enough; the consequences of climate change will need to be managed holistically. (The Guardian)
Russian Energy Firm Signs Investment Deal with Major International Banks
Global Trade Review reported on December 1 that the Russian fossil gas company Novatek has secured the necessary external funding for its Arctic LNG 2 project, a liquified natural gas development complex which will transport gas from onshore fields in the Siberian Yamal peninsula to international markets through the Northern Sea Route (NSR). The agreements are in place with domestic and international banks, including Chinese and Japanese investments. Finalized on November 30, the largest portion of the financing will be provided by a consortium of Russia’s largest banks. (Global Trade Review)
Take 2: Earlier foreign investment interests expressed by countries such as France, Italy and Germany disappeared under public environmental criticism and concerns over the upcoming COP26 climate conference. Nevertheless, with now over 21.3 billion U.S. dollars estimated to be spent on the total project, this investment shows that natural gas extraction is still seen as a viable investment choice for much of the world’s economy. The construction of extraction sites and large-scale infrastructure for the transportation of these resources to places like Europe and China indicate that fossil fuels will continue to be part of the energy portfolio of major economies when meetings the world’s energy needs. This highlights the role of international finances in exacerbating the energy crisis as they continue to seek economic growth over long-term environmental impacts. However, the disconnect between the growth imperative of capitalism and the needs of the environment is starting to see a growing opposition from the scientific and left-wing community. (Jason Hickel, Novatek)
Greenland Establishes Diplomatic Mission in China
Kalaallit Nunaata Radioa reported on 27 November 27 that Greenland has established its first representative office in China. Officially opened in Beijing on November 18, the office’s main priorities will be focused on economics, trade and cultural exchanges. The representation will also function as a contact point for communication with neighbouring countries such as South Korea and Japan. (Kalaallit Nunaata Radioa)
Take 3: The achievement showcases the growing foreign policy aspirations of the Greenlandic government and the importance it attaches to China for its continued economic growth. Already in trade over resources like minerals and fish, the Greenlandic government also views China as a potential market to expand tourism and other services. Now, no longer controlled by the Danish embassy, the direct access provided by this office will greatly improve the relations between the two countries. Greenland’s desire to expand its available trading partners is particularly evident through its stated aims to use the office to engage with Japan and South Korea- two major economies which have both shown interest in exploring new shipping routes and greater scientific cooperation in the Arctic. At the same time, the move away from having its foreign relations controlled by the Danish government will give the current Greenlandic government a significant boost for its independence narrative. Any potential trade deals or high-stakes visits arising from this new office could see the current governing party win a great deal of support from the Greenlandic population. (Radio Canada, The Arctic Institute)
Early Freeze in Russian Arctic Waters See Substantial Ice Breaker Deployment
Radio Canada reported on December 1 that Russia has deployed its Arktika icebreaker to assist with resolving ongoing shipping disruptions along its northern coast, where an early winter freeze has seen 20 ships ice-locked in the East Siberian Sea. The Arktika will join three other Russian icebreakers dispatched in the area, escorting the last remaining vessel trapped in the ice off northeastern Chukotka, the Lev Yashin cargo ship. (Radio Canada, The Barents Observer)
Take 4: This development is important because the Russian government’s attempts to promote the Northern Sea Route (NSR) as a viable alternative to the Suez canal is likely to suffer if its icebreaking efforts are not seen as reliable. Although the majority of the ships stuck in the ice are Russian, and rescue efforts are helping to resolve the situation quickly, the presence of a trapped foreign Finnish ship combined with the lack of sufficient preparation has put the NSR directly into the international spotlight. With the Russian government banking on the NSR to alleviate its strained economy, the crisis could cause a major public relations issue. The latest incident joins many problems already observed with the NSR, which includes heavy infrastructure investment without immediate returns and environmental implications of increasing shipping through the already fragile ecosystem of the Arctic. The latter has already seen multiple companies distance themselves from utilising Arctic shipping routes, motivated by campaigns such as from the environmentalist Ocean Conservancy foundation. In order to recover from the unfortunate incident, Russia will have to increase its efforts to showcase that search and rescue and icebreaking operations are able to be carried out frequently and effectively. (Council on Foreign Relations, High North News)
Inuvialuit Regional Corporation Pass First Law as Regional Body
Toronto Star reported on December 1 that the Inuvialuit Regional Corporation (IRC) has successfully passed its first law as a regional body. Following a C-92 federal legislation bill that supports First Nations, Métis and Inuit communities to take partial or full jurisdiction over child and family services, the IRC law will give Inuvialuit youth in child and family services the right to remain in their home communities. (Toronto Star)
Take 5: The law is a major achievement, the very first of its kind to be instigated in Canada by an Indigenous government in the Northwestern Territories. With Inuit representing up to 98% of children in foster care, they are vastly over featured in the system. This legislation will now prevent any more Inuit children from being unnecessarily dislocated from their communities. By having the new law apply to all local, regional and federal institutions, the IRC is also increasing its influence, thus making it a more effective- and powerful- institution as a whole. This will likely translate into increased calls for more governing powers being passed to bodies like the IRC, which have called for their “inherent rights” to be respected by the Canadian government on multiple occasions. Some Inuit have also responded that the legal decision needs to be taken even further. However, the passing of the law already represents a significant move towards taking back this control of day-to-day governance, a moment which the CEO of the IRC, Duane Ningaqsiq Smith, concludes is truly a “fundamental shift.” Ultimately, it is the first step for the Inuit people of Canada towards increased autonomy from the Canadian government. (Inuvialuit Regional Corporation, The Globe and Mail)