The Arctic This Week Take Five: Week of November 18, 2019

Expedition Cruise Operators Formalize Ban on Dirty Heavy Fuel Oil in the Arctic

As Arctic sea ice continues to melt at a rapid rate, an increasing number of ships are taking the shorter route through the Arctic Ocean and along North Norway’s coastal waters. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has unsuccessfully attempted to enforce an official ban on heavy fuel oils (HFOs) in these waters, as HFOs are a large source of harmful emissions. In the event of a large spill, the environmental consequences are devastating and can prevail for decades. The Association of Arctic Expedition Cruise Operators (AECO), a coalition of around 50 ships and 10 yachts, has formalized a self-imposed ban on HFOs in an attempt to protect the Arctic environment. Despite the ban by AECO members, Russia and China, who account for nearly ⅔ of HFO use, have yet to commit (High North News, Barents Observer).

Take 1: HFOs are the cheapest and dirtiest marine fuel, making it absolutely essential that its usage is closely regulated, especially in sensitive ecosystems like the Arctic. While it’s encouraging that AECO members have taken it upon themselves to do their part in preserving the Arctic environment, it is important to note that they make up only a small percentage of all voyages in the area. In fact, Russia and China are sending an increasing number of vessels along the Northern Sea Route, effectively negating any positive impact the ban could have. Interestingly enough, some companies, including multibillion dollar corporations like Nike, have vowed not to ship via the Arctic. Analysts presume that the blowback of a potential spill is simply not worth-it. With the public becoming increasingly concerned about climate change, an oil spill could be detrimental to a company’s public environmental image.  

Shipping on Northern Sea Route Up 63 Percent

Rosatom, Russia’s nuclear power company, reports that their shipping as of November 15th, exceeded 26 million tons. This represents more than a 63% increase relative to the same period last year. The majority of this increase can be attributed to Russian industrial projects, including LNG from Novatek’s natural gas installation in the Yamal Peninsula and oil form Gaprom’s Neft’s Novy Port project. Although the Northern Sea Route offers shippers a significantly shorter voyage, transit shipments remain low. Rosatom will continue to play a key role in the development of the Russian Arctic as the main developer of infrastructure on the sea route (Barents Observer, EOTA).

Take 2: Russia has invested a considerable amount of resources into ensuring the success of the Northern Sea Route, and it appears their efforts are beginning to pay dividends. Although the current shipping is still quite far off of President Putin’s target of 80 million tons by 2024, the increased traffic is certainly promising. That being said, the lack of transit shipments may prove to be an insurmountable obstacle as time goes on.

Canada Announces $2M for Research Into Carbon Neutral Mining in Northwest Territories

Following positive predictions for mining in northern Canada by the Conference Board of Canada, the Canadian government is investing in a Northwest Territories-based research project that has the potential to make some mining operations carbon neutral. The Yukon and Nunavut territories are forecasted to outpace the economic growth of the rest of Canada with the incoming mining boom. The carbon neutral mines in question will essentially be using tailings from mining operations to accelerate the natural process of chemical weathering. Researchers believe the world’s first carbon-neutral mine is an achievable goal, as tailings to absorb carbon dioxide typically exceeds mine emissions by tenfold (EOTA, EOTA).

Take 3:  With the increase in mining operations in Canada, it is necessary that the government continue to balance economic growth alongside sustainable practices. While the research is ongoing, there is potential for carbon neutral mines to become the standard for mining across the Arctic. This announcement also comes on the tail of funding for four other projects, including a biomass heating system and hybrid renewable energy options. Canada’s investment in sustainable alternatives for its residents makes it an exciting space for innovation in the near future.

Researchers Win Award for New Way to Assess Impacts of Arctic Oil Spills

Mawuli Afenyo, Adolf K.Y. Ng, and Changmin Jiang of the Asper School of Business won the “KLU Young Researcher Best Paper Award”, presented at the Annual Conference of the International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME) for their paper titled “A method for assessing the socio-economic impact of oil spills in Arctic waters.” The method they developed is called the Socio-Economic Model for the Arctic (SEMA). It is anticipated to improve the accuracy in assessing the socio-economic impacts of oil spills from increasing shipping in the Arctic. The model not only accounts for variables such as the type of vessel and oil spilled during shipping, but also offers probabilities for best and worst-case scenarios (University of Manitoba).

Take 4: The SEMA framework developed by the researchers is a direct example of how research can shape policy. The model provided by SEMA can be used as a template as policy is written to regulate voyages in the Arctic. Furthermore, stakeholders other than governments, such as insurance companies, can use the model to evaluate the social, biophysical, and economic impacts of a potential oil spill. The paper also notes that despite the potential risks of shipping in the Arctic, there are also opportunities for Indigenous communities in the Arctic to take advantage of increased tourism and less expensive goods.

Green Light for New Seaport in Russian Arctic Archipelago

The Russian government has approved construction plans for the Pavlovskoye seaport in the remote and heavy militarized Arctic archipelago in northern Russia. The seaport will be serving the zinc and lead mine located in Novaya Zemlya. The mine also includes a processing plant and will be one of the northernmost mining operations in the world. The Pavlovsky mine holds an estimated 2.48 million tons of zinc and 549,000 tons of lead.The mine is projected to deliver up to 3.5 million tons of ore per year (EOTA).

Take 5: Once a sight for underground nuclear tests, Novaya Zemlya remains a closed military area strictly controlled by Russian Armed forces. The expansion in the area follows Russia’s efforts for energy dominance. Building infrastructure in such remote areas can be a challenge, but with ample planning, Russia could be accessing an untapped market.