The Arctic This Week Take Five: Week of May 7, 2018

Bringing Back the Second Fleet

On May 4, the U.S. Navy announced that it plans to reestablish the Second Fleet by July 1, 2018. The fleet, originally disbanded in 2011 to save costs amid a changing strategic environment will now be revived to counter the rising threat of Russia. The Second Fleet will be headquartered in Norfolk, Virginia, and will be staffed with 250 personnel. It will exercise operational and administrative responsibilities for Naval operations along the East Coast and in the northern Atlantic Ocean (BBC News, CNNPolitics).

Take 1: The reestablishment of the US Second Fleet reflects the growing concern over Russia’s presence and interest in the North Atlantic. It is no secret that relations between Russia and the West have deteriorated quickly the last few years as a result of Russia’s continued support for President Bashar al-Assad, allegations of Russian cyber-attacks on western interests, the poisoning of Sergei Skripal in the UK, and Russia’s aggressive actions in the Ukraine. Revving the Second Fleet during these times of heightened tensions provide the US greater flexibility in dealing with and responding to any threats in the North Atlantic. The Second Fleet’s capabilities help to reinforce the potential establishment of NATO’s Atlantic Command, with both aiming to deter any Russian aggression (Reuters, The Atlantic).

One Step Forward, Two Steps Backwards

On May 9, the Ministry of Petroleum and Energy in Norway announced that it has expanded oil and gas licensing off the coast of Northern Norway with 103 new blocks, 47 in the Norwegian Sea and 56 in the Barents Sea. Oil companies now have until September 4 to apply for these blocks. The goal is that new discoveries on the Norwegian continental shelf will ensure value creation, Government revenues, and create new employment opportunities (Reuters, The Independent Barents Observer).

Take 2: It is concerning that Norway encourages more production of oil and gas in the Arctic. The country is Europe’s biggest exporter of fossil fuels, exporting 10 times more carbon than it emits. This makes it the seventh largest exporter of emissions, contributing to high carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere and the melting of sea ice. The push for more oil and gas occurs at a time when the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere for the first time exceeded an average of 410 parts per million for an entire month, and Arctic sea ice extent in April was the second lowest on record, following record lows in January and February. It is therefore absolutely irresponsible of Norway to expand oil and gas licensing in the Arctic, especially since Norway has set out to be a global leader in climate action. The plan to ramp up oil and gas production threatens its climate commitments, and runs counter to its domestic efforts of reducing emissions (The Guardian, The Independent Barents Observer, The New York Times).

If You Ain’t First, You’re Fourth

On May 2, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute announced that Russia’s military spending fell by about 20% in 2017 compared with the previous year. Russia spent $66.3 billion or 4.3% of GDP on defense in 2017, down from 5.5% of GDP in 2016. This is the first-time military spending has decreased since 1998. The decrease has put Russia in fourth place in the ranking of the world’s biggest military spenders, overtaken by Saudi Arabia as the world’s third largest. As for future prospects, it is expected that defense costs will stay flat from 2017, or possibly even fall when adjusted for inflation (Reuters, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute).

Take 3: While Russia has recently been boosting of new military hardware and improving capabilities, it should come as no surprise that its defense spending has dropped in the last year. The country has been going through fire the last couple years, struggling financially as a result of Western sanctions following its 2014 annexation of Crimea, and the 2014-16 collapse in global oil prices. Now, crude prices have finally climbed above the $70-a-barrel mark for the first time since 2014. Higher oil prices since 2016 have helped the export-dependent economy return to growth of 1.5% last year. However, it is still short of the government’s target of 2%. The new 2018 energy deals with Saudi Arabia and countries in Asia will further help to alleviate the economic pressure. It is possible that it will be reflected in military spending the next couple years, especially if global military spending continues to rise. It is too early to determine how much the decreased spending will affect Russia’s plans to expand its military presence into the Arctic. They might divert funds from other projects and commitments in order to meet their goals, so while there might be an overall decrease in spending, that does not imply that Russia will decrease its growing Arctic presence (Business Insider, Financial Times, MarketWatch, RT, The Maritime Executive, The World Bank).

The North Pole Floats All Year Round

Russia’s Admiralty Shipyards has signed a contract with Russia’s Hydrometeorological Service over the design and construction of a self-propelled floating research installation called North Pole. The construction of the platform is set to start early 2019, with preliminary investment set to be €98 million. Construction is estimated to be completed by 2020. The North Pole will accommodate a crew of 14 and 48 researchers, have enough fuel supplies for two years, and be operational for at least 25 years. The platform will be used to conduct scientific studies in the Arctic Ocean all year-round (Arctic.ru, The Independent Barents Observer).

Take 4: The North Pole helps to replace Arctic research stations based on drifting ice floes, a necessity for any state desiring to conduct year-round research. This is important because Russia has been dependent on floating research stations in the Arctic since 1937. In recent years, it has become increasingly difficult to find ice floes solid enough to hold a station and to conduct consistent research from. The last real ice station, North Pole-40, was established in October 2012, but had to be evacuated in May 2013 due to the ice floe breaking apart. Establishing the North Pole platform gives Russia the opportunity to continue its research and quest for scientific knowledge in the Arctic year-round despite conditions of melting ice (Eye On The Arctic, Sputnik International, The Independent Barents Observer).

Solving the Mysteries of the Universe

The Greenland Telescope, a 12-meter radio antenna in Greenland, is used to study the universe at specific radio frequencies. Recently, the telescope was joined together with the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT), a global array of radio dishes that are linked together. Working jointly these telescopes capture the best possible images of a supermassive black hole outside of our galaxy. The plan is to use these observations to help test Einstein’s theory of General Relativity in environments where extreme gravity exists, and help explore in detail the physics around black holes (Space Daily).

Take 5: The Arctic is a perfect location for the Greenland Telescope project. The telescope is located at a sea level site, 750 miles inside the Arctic Circle. This means that astronomers can take advantage of the near-ideal conditions of the Arctic. For instance, the water vapor in the atmosphere overhead is low and continuously monitored. The dry environment is great because it helps achieve high image resolution. The Arctic is clearly of great importance for scientists that want to unlock the Universe’s deepest mysteries. It is evident that countries have to do their best to protect the Arctic climate and environment if knowledge gaps in astronomy are to be closed (Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics1, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Atstrophysics2).