The Arctic This Week Take Five: Week of May 25, 2020

Permafrost in the Arctic May Thaw Faster Than Presumed

A study published on May 4th in Nature Communications investigates “thermokarst,” a process that may accelerate the thawing of permafrost at high latitudes. The discovery was made by researchers at the University of Oslo’s PERMANOR project. When permafrost thaws, the ground beneath subsides giving way to ponds and lakes. This landscape change is the thermokarst process. Researchers have found the thermokarst process to be particularly relevant in Siberia, Norway, and peatlands in Finnmark (Phys.org, Nature).

Take 1: Although thermokarst processes have yet to be fully integrated into climate models, the general consensus in the scientific community is that they locally lead to faster thawing of permafrost. Amplifying feedback loops in high latitude regions dominated by unstable permafrost may be the next source of great concern in the battle against a warming climate.

Arctic Conference Discusses COVID-19 Challenges

On May 19th, a virtual conference organized and hosted by the US Naval War College, the Wilson Center’s Polar Institute, and the US Arctic Research Commission was held regarding the impacts of COVID-19 in the Arctic. The conference explored how the circumpolar region’s prior experiences with infectious disease has helped form a timely and effective response to the global pandemic. The uncertainty COVID-19 has created for the Arctic Council was also a point of discussion. While connectivity issues have made it difficult for isolated participants of the Council to attend meetings, experts are hopeful that addressing these problems now can save time and travel costs in the long run (Nunatsiaq News).

Take 2: Too often, revelations made during prior catastrophes aren’t utilized when a similar problem strikes again. Remote communities in the Arctic region are an exception, wherein policymakers were quick to put in measures to quell the highly infectious virus. In particular, Nunavut’s effective response to the virus makes it the only region in Canada with no positive COVID-19 cases.

Rising CO2 May Cause Trees to Warm the Arctic

This week, several news outlets covered a study that dates back to April 29. The study was published in Nature Communications by scientists at the University of Edinburgh, and suggests that decreasing water loss from plants causes surrounding air to warm. Rising carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere are making plants more efficient at carrying out photosynthesis, part of which includes saving more water in the process. This decreasing water loss warms the surrounding air which is carried poleward by currents. The study estimates that the plant effect may account for nearly 10% of the Arctic’s warming each year (Scientific American).

Take 3: The effect of plants on warming in the Arctic is difficult to paint with a single broad stroke. On one hand, plants take greenhouse gases out of the atmosphere which reduces warming, but on the other, the increasing efficiency of plants is causing surrounding air to warm. Complex variables and how they interact with other processes are not yet fully understood. They therefore remain a source of uncertainty in many climate models.

Heat Shocks Threaten Life on Tundra in Northern Siberia

This week it was reported that April 2020 marked record-high temperatures in northern Siberia. Images from satellite footage reveal deviations of more than five degrees Celsius over major parts of Siberia, of which remote tundra lands located along the Arctic Ocean are most affected. Already, high temperatures are leading to early wildfires in the Yamal-Nenets region. Experts warn that tremendous warmth may lead to “zombie fires” that ignite from dormant organic soils (Barents Observer, CTV News).

Take 4: Our continually warming climate serves as a reminder of how interconnected ecosystems are at their core. Lighter ice conditions in the Arctic region have been accompanied by significant changes in local biodiversity, change in terrain, and now the possibility of zombie fires. While some industries, such as the shipping industry, are benefiting, it is important to note that taking advantage of the situation may lead to suboptimal feedback loops in the long-term.

New Barents Sea Port and 500 Kilometer Railway 

On May 27, the Barents Observer covered a story about how the Belkomur railway will be extended 500 km north from Karpogory in western Russia to Indiga. The terrain between the two municipalities is uncomplicated. In Indiga, located on the coast of the Barents Sea, a deepwater year-round port is under construction. Russia’s new Arctic hub in Indiga will get a capacity to handle 80 to 200 million tons of cargo per year. If in flow by 2025, the Indiga hub will link Asia with the Arctic (Barents Observer).

Take 5: While Russia’s aggressive energy plan to dominate the Arctic region continues at breakneck speed, some experts are not convinced Asian cargo flow through the Arctic will bring the economic benefits the Russian government is anticipating. Among the skeptics include Dr. Moe at the Fridtjof Nansen Institute in Oslo, Norway. He claims north-south transport links between Asia and the Arctic have long been discussed but few have come to fruition due to the high cost of investment.