The Arctic This Week Take Five: Week of May 13, 2019
Is Geoengineering the Solution?
On May 12, Professor Stephen Salter from Edinburgh University described his plan to refreeze the Arctic as a way to save the planet from global warming. The plan has received backing from Professor Sir David King, the former chief scientific adviser to the UK government, as part of Cambridge University’s Carbon Neutral Futures Initiative led by Dr. Emily Shuckburgh. It involves spraying seawater into the atmosphere during the Arctic summer to whiten the cloud cover. The result is more sunlight being reflected back into space, allowing temperatures to drop and preventing ice from melting. Other possible approaches to repair the Earth’s climate include ocean greening and recycling carbon dioxide (BBC News, Daily Mail, Express).
Take 1: The initiative is the first of its kind and can help to repair the Earth’s climate. This is absolutely necessary as the climate problem is one of the most important challenges of our time. Extreme heat, drought, floods, and poverty are all a reality in today’s world. In the Arctic one sees negative impact on flora and fauna, and the local communities and indigenous peoples that rely on the Arctic for their livelihoods. In order for us to better limit these problems we have to look at a wide range of possible ideas, and investigate radical innovations to deal with the problems. However, it is important to keep in mind that the new approaches are just a form of emergency service that buys the world some precious time. They don’t address the root cause of climate change. In order to truly curb the problem, the approaches will have to work alongside with efforts to reduce carbon emissions. It is quite possible that geoengineering can lessen the impacts of climate change, and the possibility of taking the new approaches into use should therefore be investigated.
China Continues to Desire Greater Arctic Involvement
Take 2: The Arctic Circle China Forum in Shanghai reminds us again of China’s mounting interest in Arctic governance and affairs despite it not being an Arctic state. Countries like the United States and Denmark have expressed their concern over China’s increased activity in the Arctic with US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo just a few days earlier warning that Beijing’s aggressive behavior in the polar region could create a new South China Sea conflict. However, other countries like Canada and Sweden say that the US is overestimating the threat from China, and they express their support for cooperation. Though countries don’t seem to agree on whether China’s interests in the Arctic are good or not, it is at least clear how serious China is about its engagement in the region.
Risk vs Reward
This week, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) met in London for its 74th meeting of its Marine Environmental Protection Committee. On the agenda was various maritime issues like black carbon emissions and heavy fuel oil in the Arctic. Like in past, Clean Arctic Alliance, a group of more than a dozen environmental organizations, urged member states of the International Maritime Organization to remain focused on the goal of developing a ban on the use and transport of heavy fuel oil by ships in the region, and it calls for the HFO ban to be adopted in 2021 and phased in by 2023 (Ship Technology, The Guardian).
Take 3: Due to the rising levels of shipping traffic in the Arctic, a HFO ban is becoming increasingly more important and necessary. Countries such as China and Russia view the Arctic as a prime oil route. The Arctic ecosystem is vulnerable at this time, and an accident such as an oil spill will be catastrophic. What is also important to understand is that any shipping accident that requires emergency services puts those systems under stress. The strong weather patterns of the Arctic make any emergency operation a dangerous mission. A ban could help to reduce some of these risks.
A Growing Forest Under the Arctic Ocean
On May 14, it was reported that underwater forests of large brown seaweeds (kelps) in the Arctic are expanding as a result of warming climate. As waters warm and sea ice retreats, more light will reach the seafloor and benefit marine plants. The findings were originally published in the journal Global and Planetary Change in January 2019 by a group of researchers from Norway, Denmark and Australia who compiled records of kelps over the last two centuries from primary literature, museum collections, dive logs, Arctic expeditions, coastal monitoring and local ecological knowledge from Inuit and northern communities. The goal was to synthesize existing information on the distribution and diversity of kelp forests in the Arctic, and assess how the ecosystems are changing with the climate (ScienceDirect, The Conversation).
Take 4: The fact that kelp forests are expanding in the Arctic can be seen as a good thing. The forests provide shelter and food for animals, and they also help protect coastlines by decreasing the power of waves during storms and reducing coastal erosion. Increased ocean temperatures create favorable conditions for the kelp as ocean warming pushes conditions closer to temperatures of maximum growth. Expansion of kelp forests can provide new habitats for fish and other marine organisms, boost the kelp aquaculture industry and tourist industry, and provide much needed income to northern communities whose livelihoods are already threatened by climate change and other impacts. That is all good, but what complicates the prospects is the fact that thawing permafrost and crumbling Arctic coasts are dumping sediments into coastal waters, which block light and limit plant growth. In addition, run-off from melting glaciers can lower salinity and increase turbidity, something that impacts young kelp. It becomes clear that the continual changes in the Arctic are having second and third orders consequences.
Russia’s Oil Dream
Late last week, Rosnedra, The Federal Agency for Mineral Resources of Russia, confirmed a record oil find in the Yenisey River delta where the Yenisey flows into the Kara Sea. It is estimated that the Payakha fields, located about 130 km north of the port town of Dudinka, may hold up to 1.2 billion tons of oil, making it one of the biggest estimates ever made for a Russian oil field. Previously it was estimated that the Payakha area held about 600 million tons of oil (Kommersant, The Barents Observer).
Take 5: The sudden oil upgrade comes at a time when the Russian government is trying to increase its shipment volumes through the Northern Sea Route (NSR). Last year President Vladimir Putin announced that he wants 80 million tons of goods to pass through the route by 2024. The Payakha fields have been reported to account for up to five million tons to the NSR. If the new findings are true, the estimate can be increased. However, research shows that the reported facts are most likely overestimated as only a few exploration wells have been drilled in the area, seismic studies and data assessments still remain sparse, and no new oil samples have been collected. Experts have acted with skepticism to the sudden major upgrade of estimated oil in the area. It looks like the outcome might be that companies Neftegazholding and Rosneft will not obtain any perceived benefits but instead have to continue to dream big.