The Arctic This Week Take Five: Week of March 25, 2019
A Disaster at Sea
On Saturday March 23, the cruise ship The Viking Sky sent a distress signal. The ship originally making its way from Tromsø to Stavanger had suffered engine failure amidst heavy seas. It began to take in water and was at risk of hitting rocks. Five helicopters were deployed by the Norwegian search and rescue services. They were able to evacuate over 400 passengers. By Sunday the ships engines were repaired, and The Viking Sky was able to make it to the city of Molde with 900 passengers and staff still aboard. In total dozens were injured and 36 were taken to the hospital. According to Norwegian authorities, the ship’s engine failure was the result of low oil levels (BBC, The Barents Observer).
Take 1: The Arctic cruise industry continues to grow. 2018 saw a 16% increase in port visits, and 2019 is expected to see the trend continue to rise. With increased traffic comes the increasing risk of more and more accidents. Fortunately, in this accident no one was seriously hurt. Yet, in this particular case the waves were too bad to use boats for the rescue so instead Norway’s search and rescue services had to utilize helicopters. They have come out and stated that this accident was larger than events they train for, and if it had happened further north this type of rescue operation might not have been possible. An accident like this thus serves as a stark warning to the cruise ship industry and rescue services.
Arctic Warming Creating Smog Problems for China
A recent study published this month in the Science Advances journal states that melting sea ice and increased snow across Siberia have led to alterations in weather patterns that have historically cleaned out the air in China. These alterations now change historical wind patterns, creating the perfect conditions for pollution to stagnate over major Chinese cities. In 2013, the stagnant pollution over Chinese cities contributed to over 90,000 deaths. The crisis led to the development of this study, which hoped to determine why the stagnation was occurring. The study utilized climate models to conduct experiments in the Arctic. Removing and adding snow to their models helped determine which pressure systems were altered as a result (ScienceAdvances, Science Magazine).
Take 2: Climate security is a real concern for China, and it should be for other countries as well. The effects of the 2013 pollution crisis has forced China to enact stricter emissions regulations and conduct more research into the matter. This is another reason why China is so invested in the Arctic region. It’s not just about resource extraction and increasing its global presence. It’s also about its own climate security. As more data become available on changing weather patterns perhaps more countries will act in ways to improve their own climate security. Equally, as more countries become aware of the importance of the Arctic region to their security, expect them to seek greater involvement in the area.
Arctic Temperatures Have a Global Impact
A new study published on March 27 in Nature concludes that a warming Arctic contributes to increasing droughts in the mid-latitudes. The temperature difference between the tropics and the poles is key in generating weather patterns. Increasing Arctic temperature weakens this difference, resulting in less precipitation. Increasing temperatures also weaken winds and cyclones. A lack of moisture and wind thus results in increased drought in other parts of the world. The research led by Bryan Shuman, a scientist from the University of Wyoming, utilized geological evidence and temperature analysis from 219 sites. It examined the tropic to pole temperature difference over three time periods, 100, 1000, and 10000 years (Nature, Phys.org).
Take 3: Often times it’s hard to relate to people how a warming Arctic can have a direct impact in their lives. A study like this can act as a warning. Increasing temperatures in the Arctic have a direct impact on weather patterns that influence water patterns around the world. As the temperatures change expect to see a rise in droughts, increasing humanitarian emergencies around the world. Potable water, something many people take for granted, is a finite resource. As droughts increase around the world the need for water will force people to migrate away. This has the potential of generating a new global refugee crisis.
Brazil May Join the Arctic Race
The Foreign Ministry in Brazil has decided to begin debating two issues; whether to accede to the Svalbard Treaty and whether it wants to apply for observer status at the Arctic Council. Meetings have been held at the Navy Center for Political and Strategic Studies in Rio to further talk about these issues. These two issues were first discussed in 2010, at which time Norway was supportive of the moves. The talks are still in the very early stages, but Brazil’s interest in being a part of the Arctic conversation is real (High North News).
Take 4: At first it might seem a bit confusing why a country with no visible connections to the Arctic seeks observer status. Brazil, being the largest country economy in the Southern Hemisphere, is slowly but surely seeking to have a larger global impact. Brazil’s leadership views the Arctic as a way to assert themselves more in global affairs. At the same time the Brazilian government is interested in research partnerships, oil and gas collaboration, and improving its own undersea technologies. A move to focus on the Arctic region will help it in these issues. While some countries object to including Brazil, it is better to have them being a part of the organization as opposed to them working by other methods to gain influence in the region. Due to Brazil’s economic size and potential investment, Brazil’s interest and concerns in the region should be taken seriously.
Temperatures Rise in Svalbard
On March 24, the Norwegian Meteorological Institute reported that temperatures on Svalbard, an archipelago in the northern Barents Sea, have been above normal for 100 straight months. Since 1961 the recorded average temperature has increased by 5.6 degrees Celsius at Svalbard’s main settlement Longyearbyen, with some months seeing temperatures 12-14 degrees above normal. This is about three times higher than the recorded temperature increase in Oslo over the same time period, and six times higher than the global average temperature increase (Eye on the Arctic, Meteorologisk Institutt).
Take 5: It is disturbing to read that Svalbard has had 100 consecutive months of above normal temperatures. This might perhaps be the new normal and that should not be accepted as being ok. The fact that data now show that the Arctic is warming six times faster than the global average instead of twice as previously thought means that the negative consequences will be much more disastrous than originally planned for. Old assumptions are no longer valid. Something that is just starting to be realized is that thawing permafrost creates sagging ground and unstable conditions, increasing the risks of landslides and coastal erosion affecting the lives of communities that live in these areas.