The Arctic This Week Take Five: Week of March 22, 2021
Russia Approves Bold, Arctic-Centric Long-Term LNG Development Plan
On March 25, the Barents Observer reported that Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin signed a new liquified natural gas (LNG) development plan, which aims to boost Russia’s annual LNG production to 140 million tons by 2035 and depends heavily on Arctic developments. “Likely” projects for development listed in the document include Ob LNG and Arctic LNG1, while “possible” projects include those in the Shtokman field in the Barents Sea, Gazprom’s Tambey fields, Pechora LNG and Kara LNG, and the development of LNG in concordance with Rosneft’s Vostok Oil project on the Taymyr Peninsula. The Russian LNG exports will be worth $150 billion by 2030, and the Russian government will have a zero-level tax on LNG exports in order to boost project development. (Barents Observer, Government of the Russian Federation, Russian Geographical Society)
Take 1: Although what will come to pass of these ambitions remains to be seen, their scale, independently and in relation to other global investments in the Arctic, cannot be understated. These investments will transform the Yamal and Taymyr peninsulas, where many existing and proposed projects are located, and will solidify Russia’s leadership in global Arctic development by ensuring it pioneers new extraction, infrastructure, and shipping technology and policy. At the same time, this scale of investment is bold and somewhat risky. The plan’s projections of global demand for LNG are considered optimistic by some, and a potential rapid shift towards renewables can interrupt LNG demand in Russia’s major energy markets, particularly Europe. However, McKinsey & Company still estimates that growth in LNG demand will drive more than 95% of global demand growth until 2035 and states that “gas is the only fossil fuel that is expected to grow continuously (in demand) to 2035.” From a Russian perspective, this compounds the existing incentives for development of the Northern Sea Route as Russia’s primary path for bringing these newly developed resources to market. Acknowledgements in the document and by Novatek that some natural gas developments may be targeted at ammonia production indicates a desire to hedge bets against change in the global energy market. (Barents Observer, Energy Strategy Reviews, McKinsey & Company)
Baker Hughes and Horisont Energi Collaborate to Store 100 Million Tonnes of Carbon Under the Barents Sea
On March 23, Reuters reported that Baker Hughes, an energy technology company, and Horisont Energi, a Norwegian carbon technology start-up, have signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on joint development of carbon capture, transport and storage technologies aimed at decarbonizing the energy industry. It includes a major carbon capture and storage (CCS) project, the Polaris offshore carbon storage facility. The facility will store carbon dioxide generated during the creation of zero-emission fuels, Blue Hydrogen and Blue Ammonia, which will be manufactured from traditional hydrocarbons extracted from the Barents seabed. It will aim to provide the world’s cheapest carbon storage and have the capacity to store over 100 million tonnes of carbon dioxide under the Barents Sea in the Arctic. The partners aim to start construction during the second half of 2022. (Business Wire, Horisont Energi, Reuters)
Take 2: Development of Blue Hydrogen and its transportation as liquid Blue Ammonia has the potential to partially address the “Arctic Paradox,” which describes the situation facing Arctic states that are simultaneously dependent on revenue from hydrocarbon development and disproportionately impacted by climate change. If successful, it would decouple hydrocarbon development from its staggering implied carbon emissions and climate impacts. At the same time, it is an incomplete solution because Blue Hydrogen production requires the continued development and use of new fossil fuel resources. The widespread use of hydrogen and ammonia is also dependent on the existence of a market for it and would require an infrastructural, technological and social transformation at scale. This is still a long way off! Still, if this project, tied to Europe’s first large-scale Blue Ammonia plant, can show that Blue Hydrogen can be profitable at scale and provide price-competitive carbon sequestration, it will be a valuable proof-of-concept that a traditionally hydrocarbon-heavy Arctic economy is possible with net-zero emissions. In turn, that will pave the way with technology and market development for hydrogen projects in the future. (Horisont Energi, Medium, U.S. Department of Energy)
New Research Finds The Arctic is Becoming More Influenced by Lightning
A study published on March 23 in Geophysical Research Letters finds that the frequency of lightning strokes above 65 degrees latitude rose sharply between 2010 and 2020, tripling relative to the global average over the same time period. The research team, led by Dr. Bob Holzworth at the University of Washington, analyzed summertime data (June, July and August) that were collected from sensors in the World Wide Lightning Location Network, a global network of sensors operated by the University of Washington. (AGU, Scientific American)
Take 3: Increased incidence of lightning has implications for the Arctic’s ecology, its contribution to the global carbon budget and safe navigation. As such, continued development of scientific understanding of lightning’s incidence and influence in the Arctic is vital. Thunderstorm formation depends on humid air which is rare in the Arctic due to low temperatures and the evaporation-limiting barrier sea ice provides. Although this research does not establish a causal connection between increased lightning and climate change, researchers have found that warming air and sea ice loss have increased humidity in the Arctic, and it makes sense that therefore lightning incidence would also increase. Increases in lightning in northern latitudes would have implications for the global carbon budget because lightning is a major ignition source for wildfires in Boreal forests, which in turn compound carbon losses due to thawing permafrost. Increases in lighting and storm formation also have implications for maritime safety as vessel traffic in the Arctic continues to rise. Other data available on the subject is limited and contradictory, which further underlines the need for more research. (Climate Dynamics, Climate Dynamics, NASA, Nature, Nature Climate Change, NPS)
Nornickel Axes Polluting Factories Near the Russia-Finland Border
On March 22, Reuters reported that Nornickel, a Russian nickel and palladium producer, will close a metallurgical processing plant in the Russian Arctic near the border with Finland and Norway as part of its move towards environmental modernisation. Along with the shutdown of Nornickel’s nearby smelting plant, the move will reduce sulphur dioxide emissions in the area to under 30,000 tons annually, an 85% reduction in emissions relative to 2015 levels. (Reuters)
Take 4: In many ways, Nornickel has become a poster child for Russia’s efforts to present itself as an environmentally conscious, tech-forward and trustworthy global leader in Arctic development. Since the company was very publicly blamed for a perceived cover-up and levied with the largest environmental fine in Russian history for damages caused by a major fuel leak at its Arctic power plant near Norilsk, it has publicly committed to financing cleanup efforts and ecological research in the area affected by the spill. It has also taken steps, including the shutdown of this metallurgical plant, to decommission dirty plants, inspect its infrastructure comprehensively and reinvest in production facilities with higher environmental standards and lower pollutant and carbon emissions. Still, it will take time and consistently radical transparency and adoption of cutting-edge technologies to convince the international community that these moves – by Nornickel and Russia – are underlain by a commitment to deep societal transformation and not simple greenwashing in a bid for greater credibility, authority and clout in Arctic resource development. (Reuters, Reuters)
Oceans North Publishes a New Report on Waste Management in the Canadian Arctic
On March 23, Radio Canada International’s Eye on the Arctic reported that Oceans North, a maritime conservation organization, published a new report on waste management in the Canadian Arctic. The report utilized 25 years of waste data from each of Canada’s Inuit Regions – the Inuvialuit Settlement Region, Nunavut, Nunavik, and Nunatsiavut – and found that although municipalities in those regions don’t produce more waste than their counterparts in southern Canada, they lack the infrastructure to manage the waste appropriately. The report includes examples of unique innovations within different Canadian Arctic communities and includes a breakdown of the amount of waste in the study regions by type, in addition to engagement points for government, the private sector and civil society. (Eye on the Arctic)
Take 5: This report provides informative and inspiring insight into the cultural, historical and colonial roots of waste management issues in Northern Canada, which are relevant to the global Arctic and beyond. These roots include the Inuit’s shift away from a local economy based on traditional seasonal patterns of harvesting and travel to their settlement in permanent towns and greater dependence on resources, clothes and food imported from the South. What’s interesting is the unique solutions some communities have developed around different aspects of their waste, consumption and production systems in response to waste overload. These blend traditional values and partial returns to traditional lifestyles and ethics with technological developments and adaptations for modern settlements. Although the specific solutions outlined in the report may not be appropriate beyond the Arctic or even for other Arctic towns, they provide valuable examples and inspiration for an ethic of waste management that draws on traditional knowledge and value systems to empower locally inspired and creative solutions.