The Arctic This Week Take Five: Week of March 11, 2019
Arctic Temperatures Are Set to Rise Regardless of Mitigation Efforts
This week the UN released an environmental report detailing that Arctic temperatures are essentially now “locked” because greenhouse gases are already part of the atmosphere and oceanic heat storage systems. The report points out that as it stands the Arctic will experience a temperature rise between 3 to 5 degrees Celsius by 2050 and 5 to 9 degrees Celsius by 2080. The report further warns that even if all global emissions were stopped overnight the Arctic would still see a 4 to 5 degrees Celsius increase in temperature by 2100. It further indicates that thawing permafrost will likely increase the effects of climate change further, reducing any chances of current climate agreements working (The Grist, The Hill, UN Report).
Take 1: This is astonishing news as the report seems to indicate that the effects of climate change will negatively impact more people around the world in the near future regardless of actions that are taken now to mitigate and prevent such an eventuality from occurring. The impact of a warming Arctic will soon become a reality and the people to suffer first will be those indigenous communities living in the area. As their world changes, their lifestyles and way of life will be immediately impacted. Yet, while this report is largely negative, it should not prevent countries from taking action. Communities in immediate danger should be provided for, and countries must do what they can to lessen the impact of climate change in the far future.
Norway’s Annual Licensing Round to Offer More Territory for Arctic Oil and Gas
On March 14, Norway’s Petroleum and Energy Minister Kjell-Børge Freiberg stated that the country plans to expand the offshore oil and gas acreage it offers for exploration to companies during its annual licensing rounds. During this year’s APA licensing round Norway will offer 90 new blocks, 48 in the Barents Sea, 37 in the Norwegian Sea, and five blocks in the North Sea. This will be considered a record amount of production licenses to offer. Norway in 2018 offered 83 such licenses. The country offers these new blocks in the hope of encouraging further exploration development in these fields (Oil Price, Reuters).
Take 2: As of right now, Norway does not have any major project or oil discoveries to sustain current levels of production past the 2020s. This is one of the primary reasons why the country is offering more and more licenses each year. It hopes that further exploration of its areas will yield new discoveries that can maintain the current levels of production past the 2020s. Yet, while Norway hopes its oil industry can survive in the long run, it seeks to diversify its Sovereign Wealth Fund by divesting it from oil and gas stocks as the prices of these commodities continue to decrease. In the long run, even if production is maintained at current levels, it appears that the profitability of oil and gas will not remain constant enough to be a reliable long-term investment. If the country is willing to diversify its investments, what efforts are being made now to diversify its economy away from oil and gas production?
Nitrogen Grows in the Arctic Ocean
On March 11, the Bigelow Laboratory for Ocean Sciences released a report indicating that Arctic waters are now producing nitrogen resulting from a microbial process called “nitrogen fixation.” The process occurs when algae and bacteria form a symbiosis that is able to convert atmospheric nitrogen into metabolically useful nitrogen. Nitrogen fixation generally occurs only in tropical and subtropical waters were the waters are warm enough for the necessary symbiosis to occur. Yet, as Arctic waters warm up it is creating the necessary conditions for this process to occur. Scientists believe that the increasing levels of nitrogen in the Arctic Ocean are creating increased levels of phytoplankton, which require metabolically useful nitrogen to thrive. As they grow in number, the phytoplankton consumes more carbon from the ocean, which eventually removes it from the atmosphere (Science Daily).
Take 3: This report does provide a glimmer of hope that warming waters in the Arctic can lead to increased carbon reduction. However, the overall effects of warming in the Arctic Ocean might end up being more negative than good. For example, an exponential growth of phytoplankton may result in harmful algal bloom, which produces toxins that are harmful to sea life. As the report notes, ocean cycles are changing, leading to various climate effects that are affecting the whole planet. What this means in the long run is still to be determined.
A Shift of US Arctic Rhetoric
US military leaders this week have discussed changing US Arctic strategy and policy. Both the Navy Secretary and the Commander of US European Command have stated that the increased shipping traffic in the region requires an increased US navy presence and the area is important to US interests. In further statements, the Navy Secretary noted that Russia’s increasing presence requires the US to plan accordingly (High North News).
Take 4: Talking about changing strategy and policy remains fundamentally different than actually doing it. The US remains the only world power that has not actively invested more in its Arctic presence. While the country seeks to do more freedom of navigation missions in the area, it only seems to be reacting to the actions of other countries. The US must move beyond a reactionary policy to a more proactive policy. As noted by the Secretary of the Navy, the area remains vital to US interests. Yet, no new Navy vessels have Arctic capabilities such as ice-hardened hulls. Such ships have not been built since the 1970s. Even if the US begins to shift its policy and strategy now, it will remain far behind other countries like Russia that are actively building ships, reinforcing bases, and strengthening their spheres of influence in the region.
Russia Deploys Air Defense Missiles to the Arctic
Earlier this week, the Russian commander of the Northern Fleet, Admiral Nikolai Yevmenov, stated that the country plans to increase its defenses in the Arctic by emplacing additional air defense systems. The plan is to put the Tor-M2DT short-range missile defense system in the village of Tiksi with the purpose of protecting the airspace above the Northern Sea Route (Red Star, The Barents Observer, The Moscow Times).
Take 5: Russia has made it clear both in its actions and by its statements that it intends to enforce its Arctic territorial claim. The establishment of the Tor-M2DT missiles comes at the same time that the country is reinforcing bases, establishing airfields and increasing its training of both ground and air forces. In addition, last week the Russian government outlined rules for foreign military vessels crossing the Northern Sea Route. The rules require other countries’ shipping vessels to notify Russia 45 days in advance of any crossing. Countries would also have to have a Russian ice pilot for as long as the trip through the route lasts. While other countries most likely won’t follow these rules, it remains to be seen what Russia will do in the future to enforce them.