The Arctic This Week Take Five: Week of June 18, 2018 - The Arctic Institute - Center for Circumpolar Security Studies

Surprise Exercise

On June 13, Russia’s Northern Fleet, the biggest of its four fleets, began a surprise exercise in the Barents Sea. The drill, Russia’s largest naval maneuver in 10 years is set to last till the end of this week and is aimed at combating a massive enemy attack. 36 warships and support vessels, 20 aircrafts, and over 150 different artillery and rocket weapon systems deployed along the Kola Peninsula are all participating. While the exercise is occurring in international waters, Norway military officials have stated that they had not been informed of the drill prior to its commencement (Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation, The Independent Barents Observer).

Take 1: Military exercises are a regular occurrence all over the world, so the surprise is not that Russia is conducting one in international waters. The surprise exists in its size and scope. An exercise this large involving the Northern Fleet and other assets can be perceived as a provocative move. This is especially alarming considering the lack of notice given. Russia just finished search and rescue exercises with Norway and some of their ministers had recently met, but nothing had been mentioned during these encounters. An exercise like this does not only reveal that Russia continues to seek improvement of its military capabilities, but it also reveals that Russia remains concerned of NATO and Western Europe’s motives. As countries in Europe continue to increase military spending, expect Russia to expand on its military exercises.

Fire Season Has Begun

Alaska’s wildfire season has started. Warmer temperatures have produced thousands of lightning strikes across the state and have sparked a series of blazes on the dry tundra. Most fires are considered to be surface burning grass fire, meaning the fires burn off the dead grass on the surface, but nothing underneath. It all happens quickly and for just a short period of time. Currently there are 35 reported wildfires in the northwestern part of the state, in an area called the Galena Zone. They have burned more than 44,000 acres in the region, but no structures have been damaged and no injuries have been reported (Anchorage Daily News).

Take 2: It is no secret that as areas get warmer and drier, more frequent and more intense fires will occur. Wildfires are destructive in many ways. They can threaten lives, destroy homes, damage forests and wildlife habitats, and release large quantities of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases and air pollutants such as water vapor, methane, black carbon, and nitrogen oxides into the atmosphere. The emissions affect clouds, radiation and climate on regional and global scales, and human health and welfare. However, there are also benefits to surface fires. The fires can keep the land healthy by consuming harmful insects and diseases, renewing the soil and resetting the clock for the ecosystem.

Rain Rain Go Away Don’t Come Back Till Another Day

A three-year study funded by the National Science Foundation and led by researchers at the University of Massachusetts Amherst and Bates College in Maine aims to examine the effects of increasing rainfall in Arctic territories. The team aims to determine if increased rainy conditions are unusual, resulting from climate change or if they have happened in the past. In order to determine this, researchers will examine various sediment layers, looking for thick, grainy layers, which are indicators of past mud/landslides (The Boston Globe).

Take 3: Often overlooked, more rain resulting from hotter temperatures can lead to more frequent flash flooding, landslides, and avalanches. If at the end of the three-year study the scientists determine that climate change is the major contributor to increasing rainfall then indigenous and other communities face the challenge of adapting their infrastructures to face these new threats. Arctic countries will not only have to adapt to increased rainy conditions, they might also have to deal with increasing level of climate migrants. If communities are not supported people might be forced to move to new areas. Internal displacement of communities increase the stress on social services and it’s something that governments need to plan for now as they develop long-term Arctic strategies.

Money in the Bank

Last week, leaders from China Development Bank (CDB) and Russia’s Vnesheconombank (VEB) met to sign a loan agreement that includes the possible provision of more than 600 billion rubles ($9.5 billion) from CDB to the state-controlled VEB for financing projects under Beijing’s Belt and Road initiative and the Moscow-led Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). This is the biggest loan deal between VEB and CDB yet, which have already signed agreements worth more than $10 billion over the last 12 years. Under the new agreement, the parties can jointly finance about 70 projects, with the Northern Sea Route presented as a priority for funding (The Independent Barents Observer).

Take 4: China needs Russia because in 2017 it expanded its ambitious Silk Road trade project to include the Arctic sea route, linking the country to Europe. In January 2018 the addition was solidified as China released its first Arctic policy, establishing itself as a “near-Arctic state” with invested interest in the exploration and development of the Arctic region and its vast natural resources. Russia equally has interest in the Northern Sea Route. Russia has an ambition to increase traffic along the NRS to 80 million tons by year 2025, a tenfold increase from current activity level. China is a much-needed trade, investment and cooperation partner for Russia as China makes it possible for Russia to continue to bypass the West’s sanctions, decreasing its security vulnerability (The Diplomat, World Maritime News).

The U.S. Lagging Behind

U.S. lawmakers and experts have recently expressed growing levels of discouragement at how far behind the U.S. appears to be in recognizing how climate change could potentially transform the Arctic into an economic hub for shipping, fishing, and drilling. The Coast Guard and the Navy’s assurances during a House Transportation subcommittee hearing on June 7 did little to counter the feelings. Lawmakers are now trying to find ways to use the National Defense Authorization Act to require the Navy to coordinate Arctic strategy with the Coast Guard. They argue that the Navy is just being too short sighted in its Arctic strategy development (Scientific American).

Take 5: It seems that U.S. lawmakers are coming to the realization that China, Russia, and other countries are taking a strong interest in the Arctic and are increasing investments in the region. The potential for future trade and resource exploitation can provide economic benefits to the countries that prepare now. The U.S. remains well behind in its investments, failing to update key items such as its heavy icebreakers. These ships will become more essential as warm temperatures break thicker ice, creating more risks for ships. While Russia has 46 heavy icebreakers with an additional 15 being planned, the U.S. only operates one vessel. It is past time that the US increase its investment and interest in the region. The Navy plans to publish its new Arctic plan this summer, and it will be interesting to see if it will aim to change its approach to the Arctic, or if it just plans more of the same.