The Arctic This Week Take Five: Week of June 10, 2019
The New U.S. Arctic Strategy
On June 6, the U.S. released its long-anticipated Department of Defense (DOD) Arctic Strategy. The new strategy notes that the current era for the Arctic is one of “strategic competition.” Unlike the previous Arctic Strategy, this one puts a greater focus on China. In it, the U.S. rejects China’s claim that it is a “near Arctic State,” further claiming that China’s economic interests in the area could become aggressive as observed elsewhere in the world. The strategy also warned of Russia’s increased military presence in the area, and its desire to continue to build more military bases. The U.S. DOD will continue to enforce freedom of navigation and overflight, reserving the right to challenge any claims that threaten these two norms (Department of Defense, High North News).
Take 1: It comes as no surprise that the U.S. is now updating its Arctic Strategy. Both China and Russia have shown increased interest in the area and the U.S is now beginning to recognize this. The U.S. views the actions of both countries as potential future threats, and while it does not direct any negative actions towards them, it does make some bold statements. It’s also important that the report emphasizes the importance of cooperation in order to reduce the threats to the area. Even if the U.S. does not increase its Arctic forces, expect it to increase its joint training with regional countries. Cooperation in this region is of vast importance and any U.S. involvement, even in reducing threats or enforcing freedom of navigation, should not be done unilaterally.
Canadian Senate Report Encourages Future Arctic Investment
This week, a special committee of the Canadian Senate published a study titled “Northern Lights: A Wake-Up Call for the Future of Canada.” The study emphasized that the country has neglected its Arctic regions, and notes that greater investment, support, and attention from the Government is required in this region. The Senate committee in the study states that at a time of increased competition in the region, a failure for the government to protect its sovereignty in its Arctic territory can have a large negative impact on the future of the country. The report further notes that Canada is missing a very important opportunity at domestic development. Many northern communities are underdeveloped. The reports sees this as an untapped potential that the government should now invest in (CBC, France24, Senate of Canada).
Take 2: As Arctic competition continues to increase, Canada and the U.S. have both began to realize that they need to pay more attention to the area. This report seems like Canada’s attempt to begin to do that on a more consistent basis. The fact that the report notes the importance of northern communities, which are predominantly made up of indigenous groups, is a huge step in the right direction. These communities are often underfunded, and as the report explains there is huge potential for future growth in this area that can come from increased attention and investment. The hope is that this happens and that these communities can begin to receive the support they deserve from the government. Such efforts not only strengthen Canada’s territory claims but they also allow the country to access an area that is rich in natural resources.
Russia and U.S. Conduct Joint Operation in the Bering Sea
On June 11, the Russian Federal Security Forces and the U.S Coast Guard conducted a joint patrol in the Bering Sea. The focus of the joint operation was to improve communication and to work together in securing the area from illegal maritime activities. The forces conducted radio communication training and utilized the international Code of Signals when maneuvering together. The ships did not observe any illegal activities in the waters at that time (Newsweek).
Take 3: It’s surprising and hearting to see that there are still some areas of cooperation between Russia and the U.S. The fact that they both conducted a joint operation and training goes a long way in improving communications between the two countries and reduces the chances of a misunderstanding occurring in the area. Yet, one joint operation does not reduce the threat the U.S. feels from Russia and its increasing interest in the Arctic region. The hope remains that operations like this one can lay the groundwork for greater trust between the two countries.
Arctic Sea Ice Set to Hit New Record Low This Summer
Scientists this week reported that June has had the lowest levels of Arctic sea ice for this time of the year. This assessment is based on studying the 40-year satellite record that exists. The spring and summer seasons are known as the melt seasons, so the general expectation is decreased ice levels, with sea ice hitting its lowest amount by September, although weather patterns vary this amount year by year. This summer already appears to be on track to produce a new record low before September. The low numbers in June come off an already record-breaking hot spring (Mongabay, Thinkprogress).
Take 4: Yearly Arctic sea ice levels fluctuate, depending on constantly changing weather patterns. Yet, even when these variables are taken into account, this year’s May and June temperatures are way above the norm. Increased temperatures and melting sea ice have negative effects south of the pole. The U.S. is currently experiencing heatwaves, floods, and increased tornado activity. These weather patterns could be a result of a warming Arctic. At the same time, increased heat and melting ice are rising levels of permafrost that is melting. Permafrost contains a substantial amount of carbon and methane in it. As it melts it contributes to increasing temperatures. What happens it the Arctic affects the whole world. Only a significant reduction in carbon pollution will help to stabilize the situation. Outside of this happening, the future looks hotter and hotter.
Russia Conducts Live Fire Exercise in the Arctic
On June 13, the Defense Ministry of Russia reported that the Northern Fleet held a live fire exercise at the Kapustin Yar practice range to test a new Arctic surface-to-air missile system, the Arctic Tor-M2DT. The exercise took place as units conducted jamming drills, simulating an attack by enemy air forces. The Arctic Tor-M2DT, revealed at Russia’s Victory Parade in May 2018, is capable of enhanced target detection and is comprised of 16 surface-to-air vertically launched missiles. These missiles have a striking range of up to 12 km and can reach altitudes up to 10,000 meters (TASS).
Take 5: Testing new systems and conducting live fire exercises is a norm among many militaries around the world. As such, this training exercise is not a cause of too much concern. As the summer season continues, expect many countries to conduct more and more exercises in the north, testing out systems and forces. While such exercises will be the norm, they can still continue to increase tensions in what is a very competitive area. Russia has not shied away from asserting a larger military role in the Arctic than other countries. Just last week, Russia conducted coastal and amphibious landing exercises 15km off the coast of Norway at Pechenga Bay. How countries like Norway or NATO in general will respond to increasing Russia military activity in the Arctic remains to be seen, but what seems certain is that exercises by all parties will continue.