The Arctic This Week Take Five: Week of July 2, 2018
The Effects of Increased Vessel Traffic on Marine Mammals
On July 2, the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences published the results of a new Arctic study. Researchers from the University of Washington and the University of Alaska Fairbanks studied 80 subpopulations of seven marine mammal species (beluga whales, narwhals, bowhead whales, ringed seals, bearded seals, walruses and polar bears) in the Northwest Passage and Northern Sea Route during the month of September, a month when the Arctic Ocean has the most open water. The goal was to assess the vulnerability of marine mammals to increased vessel traffic. The results showed that narwhals (tusked whales) are the most vulnerable species while polar bears are the least (CBC, UW News).
Take 1: The new Arctic study is of great importance because very little is previously known about how increasing vessel traffic affect marine mammals. In recent decades, the Arctic has become increasingly ice-free in summer months and early fall. As sea ice is expected to continue to recede due to climate change in the years to come, traffic in the Northwest Passage and Northern Sea Route is projected to increase as well. It therefore becomes even more important to know how marine mammals in the region are impacted of such activity. Only then can one establish the proper strategies to mitigate the harmful impacts. A few suggestions can include adjusting the timing of when vessels go through certain areas, avoiding key habitats, and making efforts to minimize sound disturbance. It is not surprising to find that narwhals are highly vulnerable to vessel traffic. The animals use sound for navigation, communication and foraging, and are therefore sensitive to acoustic disturbances. It also makes sense that polar bears are the least vulnerable. These animals spend most of their time on land during September, and don’t rely on underwater sound for navigation or communication.
The Loss of Heritage
A recent study published in the Antiquity Journal provides the first analysis of the threat that climate change presents to Arctic archaeological sites. There are at least 180,000 archaeological sites in the Arctic spread over a 12 million km2 area covering Russia, Canada, and Greenland. For over a thousand years the cold has preserved these sites. Yet, today storms, rapid vegetation growth covering the landscape, tundra fires, resource exploitation and tourist traffic are all contributing to the loss of this heritage. An example of what is at stake can be seen in the loss of the Inuit village located on the Mackenzie River delta, the site of first European contact with indigenous people in the 1800s. Today nothing remains of the village. Sites like this are so remote that scientists struggle to reach them in time to recover and study artifacts. In order to save these sights experts are recommending excavation and high-resolution documentation, which is a very costly process (The Straits Times, Union of Concerned Scientists).
Take 2: While it may seem like a secondary concern, the loss of these archaeological sites has two major consequences. First, the loss of history and heritage. To allow the loss of these sites denies future generations the ability to explore, interact, and learn from the past. Second, indigenous communities face a loss of rights. In many communities land claims require archaeological evidence to be deemed valid. A loss of sites means that communities will lose the ability to assert their rights. It is imperative that funding is allocated and increased to support scientific efforts at excavating sites as the consequences can be disastrous.
Will China become a Security Threat?
A recent analysis of a report published by the Center for Strategic and International Studies stated that China’s Arctic strategy is based around the country utilizing its economic might to gain greater influence with Arctic countries. Russia remains an ideal partner for China, as the country continues to feel the effects of Western Sanctions. Yet, China has not stopped there, it has increased investments with Iceland and improved relations with other Arctic states. NATO cautions that it remains necessary to maintain a level of situational awareness of the High North as other outside countries seek to gain an advantage in the area (Center for Strategic and International Studies, JAPANForward).
Take 3: Arctic countries generally don’t consider China’s interest in the region to present any real security concerns. Yet, NATO is right to emphasize to them the importance of maintaining a high level of awareness. China continues to increase its military capabilities and has recently shown in the South China Sea that it’s willing to use force to claim sovereignty. While China might not act so boldly in the Arctic, it would be unwise to assume that China’s investment in the region will not have security implications. Right now it’s too early to tell what China’s larger security plans for the Arctic will be but without a doubt the country eyes the resource rich area as being strategically valuable.
Russia’s Flying Expedition
On July 3, three amphibious planes took off from a small airfield in the Krasny Yar village in Russia, heading northeast. The three planes are on an Arctic air expedition set to last about 40 days with 50 landings and stops along the way. During this period, the planes will cover a distance of 20,000 km above the polar areas, crossing Alaska, Canada, Greenland, Iceland, the UK, Norway, Sweden and Finland before returning back to Russia. The goal of the expedition is to conduct various medical, biological and climatic experiments to study the Earth from small heights and to design future routes for air tourism in the Russian Arctic (TASS).
Take 4: Conducting medical, biological and climatic experiments in the Arctic region is important because there is still much that needs to be known about the region. However, this research expedition is just one of many Russian scientific explorations the last couple years. Overall it is a concern that Russia spends so much time and effort on developing its scientific, transport, navigation, and military infrastructure, while other Arctic countries lag behind. The current research expedition clearly shows Russia’s interest in the Arctic region, and can of many be perceived as another sign of Russia’s desire to dominate the region. Maybe it is time to start catching up?!
Norway Seeks To Expand Oil Production for Years to Come
On July 3, the Norwegian multinational oil and gas company Equinor, (formerly Statoil), announced that it plans on investing an estimated 7.8 billion kroner ($955 million) to further develop the gigantic Troll oil and gas field on the Norwegian continental shelf, extending the productive life of the field beyond 2050. The plan will be submitted to Norway’s Ministry of Petroleum and Energy, and it is expected to be one of the most profitable and robust projects in the company’s history. The field will be able to produce 2.2 billion barrels of oil equivalent, and the future value creation is estimated at 1,65 trillion kroner ($202 billion) (Fox Business, Financial Post).
Take 5: Norway is currently Europe’s 2nd top gas supplier after Russia. Gas exports from its Troll field alone is estimated to account for as much as 8 percent of the European Union’s total gas consumption. Oil and gas production overall has generated a vast amount of wealth, resulting in Norway now having the world’s largest sovereign wealth fund of more than $1 trillion. However, many of the producing fields are aging, and Norway desperately needs to open new fields or extend its capacity to keep its status as an oil giant. The Troll oil and gas field will help Norway do so, and it will strengthen Norway’s ability to supply Europe with gas. The gas from Troll will ensure reliable and profitable gas supply equivalent to the consumption of 50 million households in Europe for 30 years in the future. Unfortunately, it all comes at a price. The push for more oil and gas means more greenhouse gasses will be added to the air, and the increased level of these gasses will have drastic effects on the world, including the Arctic region. It is an established fact that climate change, resulting from the burning of fossil fuels, is more severe in the Arctic. The region is currently warming twice as fast as the global average. The Arctic will continue to see sea ice receding, posing threats and danger to the survival of Arctic ecosystems and indigenous communities. Norway should stop and consider the long-term consequences of this plan. It threatens the Arctic, the rest of the world, Norway’s climate commitments, and runs counter to its domestic efforts of reducing emissions.