The Arctic This Week Take Five: Week of July 16, 2018

• Fire in the North

On July 18 The Copernicus, the European Earth Observation Programme, reported that 11 wildfires are raging on inside the Arctic Circle, in the countries of Russia, Norway, Finland and Sweden. The country worst hit is Sweden, and it has called for emergency assistance from its partners in the EU to help fight the flames. There are over 60 fires reported in the country alone, and so far, Norway has already sent ten firefighting helicopters, and Italy is sending two firefighting planes with 6,000 liters of water in one go. Four communities have been evacuated, and people have been warned to stay inside and close windows and vents (The Guardian, TIME).

Take 1: 2017 was the worst fire year in Europe’s history, but it is quite possible that 2018 will surpass that record. It is no secret that climate change is occurring much faster than in the past, resulting in some areas getting warmer and drier. As areas get warmer and drier, more frequent and more intense fires will occur. Fires threaten lives, destroy homes, damage wildlife habitats, and release large quantities of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases into the air. Increasing quantities of greenhouse gases result in even stronger climate change, and more fires. European countries must continue to work together to deal with the increasing challenges posed by larger wildfires. If possible they should seek to collaborate more on training and resourcing in order to prepare for future challenges.

• A Large Iceberg Threatened a Small Greenland Village

On July 13 it was reported that residents in Innaarsuit, an island community in northwestern Greenland, were on alert because an 11-million-ton iceberg drifted close to the village, and threatened to break apart. The massive floating block of ice is 650 feet wide (107 m) and rises 330 feet into the air (100 m), the biggest ever seen close to the island community of about 170 people. The fear was that if the iceberg calved, it would send a wave towards the village that would inundate the town. 33 people were evacuated to safer places inland, and a search-and-rescue helicopter was moved closer to the community (ABC News, Fox News, National Geographic, The Guardian, VG).

Take 2: Fortunately, the iceberg moved further north, averting the crisis. Even though the crisis was avoided this time around, it does not mean it will not happen in the future. The reality is that iceberg production in Greenland has been increasing as climate change has become stronger. Icebergs breaking free from glaciers will become more common in the future, and so will iceberg induced tsunamis. It is just a matter of time before island communities like Innaarsuit will be hit. The consequences can be devastating with entire towns, populations and cultures being washed away. As news stories like the Innaarsuit story appears, the warning lights keep flashing. It is evident that countries need to do more to combat climate change, and they have to act NOW.

• Canada is Losing its Glaciers

This week, several newspapers have covered a story about glaciers disappearing. They point to a study that was published on June 27 in the Journal of Glaciology by Canadian researchers at the University of Ottawa. The scientists examined the change in ice extent of 1773 glaciers across Northern Ellesmere Island over a 16-year period (1999-2015) using a variety of optical satellite scenes. The results show that out of the 1,773 glaciers, all shrank a little bit, while 1,353 shrank significantly. Overall, it was found that ice coverage decreased by more than 1700 square kilometers, a loss of almost six percent over the time period (Canada’s National Observer, Cambridge University Press, CBC News).

Take 3: The new study confirms once again that glaciers are receding at astonishing rates. The results show that the icescape of Northern Ellesmere is changing, and if current temperatures persist or continue to increase, it is certainly possible that more ice can disappear in the future. New permanent ice is not growing. While scientist Adrienne White says it is difficult to say what the consequences of shrinking glaciers will be, she supports the idea that it will have impact on sea level rise. In addition, the melting ice is likely to release more and larger icebergs into the water.

• A Good Polar Bear Season

Wildlife photographer Paul Goldstein spent a total of 6 months in the Arctic aboard a Russian icebreaker. He documented 30 polar bears in just 10 days, 60 sightings in June alone with more cubs than adults noted. Seeing this many bears has become unusual as climate change reduces the amount of ice polar bears have to walk and hunt on. Polar bears exist across the Arctic Ocean, living in parts of Canada, Alaska, Russia, Greenland and Svalbard Island. They can roam vast areas in search of food or to breed. Goldstein believes that last year’s ice harvest was fertile enough to ensure that female polar bears went to their dens well fed. There are an estimated 20,000 to 25,000 polar bears left in the wild, so observing a large number of cubs helps alleviate some fears of the polar bears being wiped out in 40 years (Mirror).

Take 4: With the rising expectation that polar bears will be extinct in 40 years, it’s reassuring to observe some growth. Still, Paul Goldstein’s observations were not part of any official long-term study of overall polar bear populations, and have to be viewed in context. One strong polar bear breeding season does not reduce the threat these animals face. In fact, reports like this can be used to discredit the real challenges polar bears face. While heartening let’s hope more can be done in the future to craft real policies that can reverse the long-term trend.

• The Mammoth Russian Icebreaker

Russia intends to build a super powered (120 MW) and super expensive ($1.2 billion) icebreaker called the Lider (Leader). The vessel is expected to be 209 meter long and 47 meter wide, capable of breaking through four-meter thick ice at 12 knots speed. It will be powered by two RITM-400 reactors with a total 120 MW capacity. Several shipyards are now competing for the right to build the ship. The state nuclear power company Rosatom has stated that the investment decision will be known by late 2018 or early 2019 by which time they hope to have selected a shipyard. The icebreaker will be used to develop northern resource rich fields at a faster rate. If successful, Russia plans to build two or three more of these types of ships.

Take 5: With such a large and expensive vessel comes large expectations. Lider is expected to strengthen Russia’s presence in global markets by increasing access to larger pockets of liquefied natural gas. It is also expected to be a platform for larger Arctic expeditions. Yet, outside of the government many other natural resource developing companies such as Novatek and Gazprom might not want or need such a large ship. Instead, they are planning to build their own fleet of icebreakers. These companies want greater freedom and independence, and do not want to become over reliant on factors that are outside of their control. If private companies begin going their own way in creating their own icebreaker fleets the Russian government might not see any real return on its investment. While a large icebreaker is a novel idea, in the long-term it might end up not being practical (TASS, The Barents Observer).