The Arctic This Week Take Five: Week of January 11, 2021
India Announces Creation of Official Arctic Policy
On January 5, it was reported that India had recently released a Draft Arctic Policy, and the Government is now requesting comments and feedback on the draft. The document outlines an Arctic framework built on a foundation of scientific, economic, and human development achieved through constructive international cooperation and respect for governance. Climate change is presented as the central ground for this Arctic cooperation and the benefits this would have for India. The document not only outlines the indirect threat posed to Indian national security through Arctic ice melt, but positions its research community as a potential source of Arctic scientific expertise due to the synergies between the study of the Himalayas and polar studies. (Financial Express, The Diplomat, The Hindu, The Week India)
Take 1: In a week featuring the release of several Arctic policy documents (including a U.S Arctic Strategy), this document stands out in particular. Not only is it India’s first foray into the Arctic policy arena, it is also the first to address the high-north under the jurisdiction of several nations and to have no clearly designated Arctic ministerial division. Although some have concluded that international interest in the Arctic has progressed to such an extreme it was only inevitable for a non-Arctic state such as India to formulate its own roadmap, this decision should be understood in the context of a long Indo-Arctic relationship. This has been primarily scientific in nature, dating back nearly a century with the (colonial) signing of the Svalbard Treaty in February 1920 in Paris, and more recently demonstrated by the 2007 launch of the Indian Arctic Research Program. However, more than just a continued articulation of research and connectivity, this document is an assertion of India’s global geopolitical ambitions. The document’s focus on sustainability also belies increasing Indian interest in Arctic coal, oil, and gas resources. This week’s new Arctic US strategy may focus on day-to-day competition with Russia and China, but with India throwing its weight into the Arctic arena it is doubtful it will continue to evade critical attention for long.
Much Anticipated Auction of Oil Leases in Arctic Refuge Falls Short of Expectations
The controversial first-ever auction of oil leases by the federal US government in Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) was met with little interest from the oil and gas industry this Wednesday, January 13. Estimated by the U.S Geological Survey to contain up to 12bn barrels of oil, the coastal landscape has also been under protected status since 1960 due to its ecological significance. Without any bids at the auction from major oil companies such as Exxon, Shell, and BP, state-run agency Alaska Industrial Development and Export Authority instead emerged as the primary bidder after facing competition from only two local companies. With only a third of the 1.6 million-acre coastal plain receiving bids, this ultimately raised a total of $14.4m. A 2018 congressional report had predicted this initial round of lease sales to raise a minimum of $450m as part of a federal government plan to pay for Republican tax cuts with oil revenue. (Anchorage Daily News, CBC, Environmental Journal, Financial Times, NPR, The Guardian)
Take 2: Although this auction fell short of the high hopes of the Trump administration, its weak outcome makes sense in the context of recent developments. Locally, environmentalist and Indigenous Gwich’in groups have lobbied against the plans, leveraging legal action as a powerful deterrent to interested companies – as of publication four of these lawsuits are still pending. Regionally, oil drilling in the Arctic has become associated with expensive physical challenges that have only become amplified by climate change. Particularly with volatile oil prices due to the Covid-19 pandemic, this has made quite an unappealing combination for cash-strapped energy companies. However, while the relative misfiring of this auction can be seen as an environmental triumph and a broader shift away from pursuing Arctic oil, it is important not to declare victory too soon. Although the incoming Biden administration has announced its commitment to protect the refuge, it might not have the power to revoke the contracts. While this site of ecological significance will remain mostly ‘closed’ for the time being, the rest of the Arctic is ‘opening’ in a so-called ‘Arctic Paradox’ as climate change gradually pushes back the Arctic ice sheet and opens up new opportunities for trade and development across the region. American and British companies like BP and Exxon might be turning away from Arctic oil, but this is undermined by those still allured by the region’s significant oil resources such as India mentioned above. (Economist, National Geographic)
Last Norwegian Coal Power Plant on Svalbard to Close
Citing both energy and environmental security, the Norwegian government announced this Monday, January 11, that the last Norwegian coal power plant will be shut down within the next few years. According to a press release by state-owned mining company Store Norske Spitsbergen Kulkompani (SNSK), the closure of the Longyearbyen Heat and Power Plant in Svalbard, an archipelago located between mainland Norway and the North Pole, will likely coincide with the shutdown of the coal mine Mine 7, the last Norwegian coal mine still in operation. Working on an upcoming energy plan for Longyearbyen to be presented in the state budget for 2022, the government aims to have the power plant replaced with more climate-friendly energy infrastructure within five years. (Eye on the Arctic, High North News, The Barents Observer)
Take 3: This event signals an industrial shift that is as much symbolic as it is economic. The mining industry has been critical to the history of Svalbard; long known for its heavy industrial mining dominated by Norwegian and Russian representation. However, the last few years Norwegian mining on Svalbard has operated on increasingly fragile grounds – facing political and public turmoil as well as melting ice. The closure of this plant seems to signal a shift in reliance away from the extractive industries. Norway’s long-debated green shift is now ongoing, with an economic plan towards a low-carbon economy by 2030 more concretely outlined in a January white paper. Continuing to exploit coal would be incongruous in the face of global coal price collapses, and to the aim of promoting (increasingly lucrative) scientific research and tourism for Svalbard’s economic self-sufficiency. Even as Norway dissociates from coal in Svalbard, other global actors will be keen to step in. Both Chinese and Russian companies have expressed interest in buying further rights to extract coal. Despite its climate commitments, Norway also continues to push for more oil and natural gas in the Arctic. Overall, the small spatial scale that Svalbard exists in belies its symbolic capital and relevance to the global economy, while Norway’s broader mixed messages speak to the importance of questioning seemingly ‘green’ national decisions. (The Barents Observer, The Barents Observer)
Fibers from Clothing Dominate Arctic Microplastic Pollution
Research published this Tuesday, January 12, in the journal Nature Communications provides insight into the composition and source of Arctic microplastic pollution, suggesting responsibility lies with activities like textile manufacturing and household laundry. Using seawater samples from the Arctic Ocean, the study found that synthetic fibers make 92 % of microplastic pollution. Lead author Peter Ross of Ocean Wise and the University of British Columbia concludes that this is “strong evidence that homes in Europe and North America are directly polluting the Arctic with fibers from laundry (via wastewater discharge).” The researchers also found that microplastics were not distributed evenly, with three times more microplastics found in the eastern Arctic waters than in those of the western Arctic, suggesting that fibers travel via Atlantic Ocean inputs or southern atmospheric transport. (CNN, Guardian, Phys.org)
Take 4: The ever-increasing extent of microplastic pollution in the Arctic has made concerning news for a few years now, from headlines about plastic fragments found frozen in sea ice to particles falling out of the sky along with snow. Concern about how these synthetic fibers may impact humans and wildlife such as birds, fish and zooplankton are rampant. Studies have already found microplastics in the guts of fish and sea life, and there are fears about the possible health effects for humans, especially for Indigenous communities that rely heavily on seafood. This news also evokes the spatial duality of the Arctic as a place. The world’s pollution localizes in this ‘remote’ area, drawing an uncomfortably intimate link between the massive issue of Arctic pollution with seemingly minor, mundane activities like clothes washing and shopping undertaken thousands of miles away. However, this study is important in that it provides new insight into the composition of these Arctic microplastics as well as unconsidered deposition mechanisms. In doing so, it not only contributes detail to the well-established problem of Arctic micro-plastic pollution but provides a clearer target for tackling the issue.
‘Ice Arches’ Supporting Arctic’s ‘Last Ice Area’ at Risk of Disappearing
Recent research published in the journal Nature Communications last week suggests the Arctic area known as the “last ice area” is in more trouble than expected. Spanning hundreds of thousands of square miles between Greenland and the Canadian Arctic, this body of sea ice is the oldest and thickest in the world. Using satellite data to investigate ‘ice arches’ along the Nares Strait, the study led by a team from the University of Toronto Mississauga found that these seasonal structures experienced an annual decrease in duration of about one week over the past 20 years. Showing that these arches play a key supportive role for adjacent ice floes, they subsequently concluded that the multi-year ice represented by the ‘last ice area’ is at risk not only from melting in place, but floating southward, into warmer waters. Following the study, Professor Moore commented that “the last ice area is losing ice mass at twice the rate of the entire Arctic,” and that “we realized this area may not be as stable as people think.” (BBC, Nature Communication, Nature World News, University of Toronto)
Take 5: The disappearance of Arctic sea ice is one of the most visible tributes to climate change. Evidence suggests that Arctic sea ice is in long-term decline, and forecasts for coming decades have pointed to an almost ice-free summer by 2040. Until now, the “last ice area” has been a critical exception and beacon of hope, thought likely to endure even the highest of projected Arctic temperatures. Among others, the WWF has posited the area as a kind of ‘last refuge’ for ice-dependent species. The trends forecasted by the study are therefore undoubtedly discouraging from a multitude of perspectives. A decrease in the sea ice edge of this area poses a threat not only to Arctic wildlife but to the Inuit communities that traditionally rely on this landscape, with the loss of sea ice further facilitating the northward expansion of fishing, shipping, mining, and drilling. In addition to ice melt contributing to rising sea levels and its associated negative impacts, the southward movement of ice fragments could pose its own unexpected security risks. As reported by Live Science, a major Iceberg nearly collided with an Antarctic penguin refuge on the island of South Georgia late last year. Nevertheless, this study needs to be consolidated by further research. Regardless, Professor Moore’s fresh insights into the dynamism of ‘ice arches’ is an important challenge to the conventional idea of ice in this region as fairly static, a critical reminder for the future monitoring, modelling, and risk mitigation of a changing cryosphere. The studies’ use of remotely sensed data speaks to how Arctic earth observation and the use of geospatial technologies will continue to be an essential element in this process. (WWF)