The Arctic This Week Take Five: Week of February 3, 2020
Norway’s New Arctic Drilling Limit
This week the Norwegian government discussed the various options of moving the ice edge, the legal line that sets the limit on how far companies can go north to drill. Under Norwegian law anything north of this line is off limits for drilling. Under political pressure and retreating ice the government is facing increasing calls to redraw the line further south. The Centre-Right minority government is set to review multiple options and will present their new demarcation line in April. The government has received multiple recommendations from state agencies and environmental groups. It is expected that the new line that will be drawn is a compromise between extreme options (Reuters).
Take 1: As the ice withdraws, the Norwegian government should be reexamining its ice edge boundary line. A line redraw has the potential to affect future exploration, but most experts agree that the line redraw will still allow companies that have received licenses already to not be affected. Political pressure is building in Norway from pro-green groups. Pressure from these groups has the potential to make lawmakers push the line further and further south in the future.
Arctic Sinkholes Growing
On Monday February 3, a new study was published in the journal Natural Geoscience stating that the ice holding soil together is melting. As a result of this melt in the Arctic more and more sinkholes are starting to appear. At the same time, the melting ice is releasing large quantities of carbon that has been trapped in the frozen soil. Scientists worry that the erupt thaw of permafrost will cause increasing landslides and ecological shifts (CBS News).
Take 2: While there is reason to be concerned over the increasing rates of permafrost melt and the effects it’s having on both the terrain and the environment, there is still hope. Scientists have stated that the worst consequences can be held off if we act this decade. Changing policy and growing environmental awareness can help to reduce the thaw. Yet, talking about changing policy is a lot harder than getting people to actually implement it.
A Link Between the Ice and Tropics
A new study published on February 3 in the journal of Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences sees how a decline in sea ice can increase the level of frequent warm cycles in the Central Pacific Ocean. As the ocean heats up at an increasing rate, it has the potential to disrupt climate, leading to droughts, hurricanes, and potential floods. The Arctic’s role in this lies with the winds, and as the Arctic heats up the warm sea air rises and falls with increasing force upon the equatorial pacific, resulting in warm water being pushed towards Asia and Oceana (Inside Climate News).
Take 3: While the study is still speculative it does provide some compelling evidence on how what happens in the Arctic has global implications. Welfare and care of the Arctic environment and climate is not just a regional problem. It must also be viewed as a global problem. More research remains to be done in this field, but if the conclusions are true, the implications of this study cannot be undervalued and should inspire other non-Arctic countries to get involved in what is happening up north.
The Polar Bear Struggle is Real
A new study published last month in Ecological Applications monitored 43 adult female polar bears from 1991-1997 and 38 adult females from 2009-2015, examining their fat levels and overall physical health. The study determined that climate change is affecting polar bear health as disappearing ice reduces the ability for bears to get enough food. Female bears are unable to raise healthy cubs and are fasting more as melting ice reduces their chances of hunting seals. Female bears are having few litters, reducing polar bear numbers even more (Daily Mail, Ecological Applications).
Take 4: Since the polar bear is an apex predator, the effects of climate change on its eating behavior and litter size imply that other species are going through similar hardships. They are indicators of a healthy environment and must to us signal the need to try and find ways to help restore ice in the Arctic.
Russia Presents Oil Development Plan
New legislation in Russia will now give oil companies incentives to invest more in Arctic oil drilling and exploration. The new $231 billion tax regime hopes to create conditions that are favorable to the national oil companies and will help in increasing the development of the Northern Sea route. For example, companies that build seaports in the Russian Arctic will receive a 0% income tax for 10 years, and shipping companies will have no VAT on icebreaker services or shipped goods (The Moscow Times).
Take 5: The new set of tax laws is one of the largest incentive programs Russia has thrown at its national oil companies. The government hopes these incentives will increase the viability and long-term profitability of the Northern Sea Route. Still, increasing drilling, seaport development, and shipping are all bound to accelerate the decline of the environment in the Arctic. Russia continues to develop ways to further exploit the region’s resources for its own economic security.