The Arctic This Week Take Five: Week of February 25, 2019

20 Years till A Summer with No Arctic Ice

A study published this week in American Geophysical Union Journal predicts that the Arctic will be ice-free during summer within the next 20 years. The study utilized computer models to determine that the combination of a natural warming cycle in the pacific and human caused warming will result in an ice-free Arctic. The main driver and the main cause of variation in the models was human caused warming. If greenhouse gas emissions are reduced it could take longer before the Arctic becomes ice-free. Yet, the scientists warn that the natural pacific cycle has shifted from a cold to warm phase that could last up to 30 years. When taken into consideration and combined with the human element, the date of an ice-free Arctic might be considerably sooner than expected (Science Daily).

Take 1: The results produced by the computer models in this this study are not set in stone. The models take into consideration both human and natural factors. While the natural factors are consistent, human behavior can change. With the growing awareness of the negative effects of climate change, there is the hope that an ice-free Arctic summer can be avoided. Yet, it seems that countries are already planning for an ice-free Arctic summer as more and more begin to invest in tourism, mining, and shipping operations in the region.

Preparations are Underway for Northern Wind Military Exercise

This week Norway, Sweden, Finland, the United States, and Great Britain continued preparations for Northern Wind, a military exercise that will be taking place in Sweden. The exercise, which will occur from March 18 to 27, will consist of a total of 10,000 personnel, and will mimic a possible land attack from the border area to Finland towards Överkalix and Boden north of Luleå (Eye On The Arctic, The Barents Observer).

Take 2: The perception of a threat motivates countries that don’t often work together to begin greater cooperation. In this case Finland and Sweden are cooperating and conducting joint exercises at levels rarely seen. The importance of these exercises cannot be overstated. Not only do they create and test joint command systems, equipment, and soldier readiness, they also confirm the commitment of partners. Mutual defense works if allies and partners trust each other and understand their systems. Exercises like this one are as politically important as they are militarily.

A Dearth of Knowledge Regarding the Risks of Arctic Mining

A study conducted in Finland and published this week in The Journal of Environmental Management stated that little research has been conducted on the environmental risks connected with mining operations in the Arctic. The report notes that environmental protection laws in Arctic bordering countries are poorly enforced and are ambiguous in their intent. This conclusion was reached after five years of research that examined the environmental, economic, social and legal dimensions associated with pre-mining, mining, and post-mining operations. The research was funded by the Academy of Finland and conducted by the University of Lapland in collaboration with the Geological Survey of Finland and the Natural Resources Institute Finland (The Journal of Environmental Management, The Barents Observer).

Take 3: Mining operations in the Arctic will continue to expand in the future as countries seek to extract more and more resources from the region. The report serves as a wakeup call to Arctic bordering countries. They need to examine and study more comprehensively how mining operations will impact not just the environment but also local economies. An example noted in the report was how local tourism might be negatively impacted as a result of mining operations. Understanding the full impact of mining also helps in creating laws that are clear and properly enforced.

Russia Allocates More Money for Arctic Research

This week the Russian government announced that it is allocating 868.75 million rubles ($13.2 million) to the Transarktika-2019 program. The initiative ran by the country’s state meteorological institute aims to improve the country’s meteorological security by conducting scientific experiments and reviewing the level of pollution in the region. As part of the research, four Arctic research vessels will be utilised with three having very specific tasks; the Akademik Tryoshnikov will be stuck in the ice and left to float with the current, the Mikhail Somov will conduct research along the Arctic coast, and the third one, the Professor Multaovsky will be utilised as a training platform (The Barents Observer).

Take 4: The Russian Arctic regions are currently experiencing increased levels of warming. In some parts the average temperatures have risen by 5 degrees Celsius in less than 30 years. These drastic changes impact Russian industrial activities in the region. It is important to note that this study does not seek to deter what is causing the pollution. On the contrary Russia seeks to expand usage of the Northern Sea Route. President Putin wants 80 million tons of goods to pass through the route by 2024, eight times more than the amount that went through in 2017. The Transarktika-2019 program really aims to contribute to improving the safety of the shipping lanes so their usage can be expanded in the future to meet President Putin’s goal.

Norwegian Prime Minister Joins Arctic Territory of Dialogue

This week it was announced that both Norway’s Foreign Minister Ine Eriksen Søreide and Prime Minister Erna Solberg will be joining the International Arctic Forum in addition to international stakeholders from business, politics and science. The forum will be held from April 9-10, in St. Petersburg, Russia. It is the fifth time the forum will be organized since its start in 2010, and it is considered to be the largest forum for discussing issues and prospects for development of the Arctic. The theme of 2019 is “The Arctic: An Ocean of Opportunity,” and more than 3000 people from about 40 countries are expected to participate (Arctic: Territory of Dialogue, Eye On The Arctic).

Take 5: The fact that the Norwegian Prime Minister is going to participate in the forum in April is huge. It will be the first time a Norwegian Prime Minister travels to Russia since the country’s annexation of Crimea in 2014. It will demonstrate that the Prime Minister understands the importance of dialogue and practical contacts. It will also send a strong message that despite tensions, sanctions and decreased trade, there is still an open door for continuation of cooperation in the north.