The Arctic This Week Take Five: Week of August 6, 2018

Russia wants to bring back weaponized ‘flying boats’

Russia is continuing its push towards the Arctic, but now by air instead of sea. A new armament plan includes the revival of a Soviet era vehicle, a ‘wing-in-ground-effect craft’ called ekranoplans. The craft is a combination of a boat and a plane, designed to fly no more than 4.8m (16 ft) above the water’s surface at speeds claimed to be above 500 kph (310 mph) (Business Insider).

Take 1: The new armament plan in the Arctic is just another step in Russia’s ongoing militarization of the Arctic. However, this Soviet throwback may not be feasible. Historically, these types of aircraft were so costly and difficult to maintain, making their operation impractical and the extreme climate of the Arctic is likely to worsen maintenance requirements (Business Insider). Should the plan be successful, Russia has stated that the vehicles will be carrying missiles, capable of defending Arctic shipping routes and other Russian Arctic tech (Barents Observer).

Explorer Amundsen’s ship finishes circumpolar journey 100 years later

Norwegian explorer Roald Amundsen’s ship, Maud, was recovered in Canadian Arctic waters in 2016, where it sank 85 years earlier. After its recovery, the shipwreck was transported to the Norwegian port of Bergen. The wreck will be exhibited in Norway’s southeastern city of Asker, where it was launched in 1917. Amundsen was a prolific explorer who the led the first successful expedition to the South Pole among other extraordinary feats. He was using the Maud to study currents in the Arctic Ocean (Phys.org).

Take 2: Although climate change may have made the recovery of Maud and other notable ships, like Sir John Franklin’s (Gizmodo), other Arctic artifacts may soon be lost because of it. Archaeologists believe that permafrost has kept many historic and biological artifacts well-preserved, but that as it melts, these items will be lost (TASS).

The Arctic carbon cycle is speeding up

New research from NASA’s Arctic Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE) program has shown that the carbon cycle in the tundra of Alaska is speeding up. The data shows a 13% reduction in the amount of time carbon stays in frozen soil, which is more similar to carbon turnover rates in the boreal forest. This is just one of the ways in which the boreal forest appears to be encroaching on the tundra, where woody shrubs are becoming much more common (Phys.org).

Take 3: The carbon cycle describes carbon in the environment as ‘pools’ and ‘fluxes’, where pools are reservoirs and fluxes are the movement of carbon from one pool to another. This shift has large implications both locally and globally, in terms of changing arctic flora. Globally, this shift contributes to a positive feedback loop where the increased free carbon becomes atmospheric carbon dioxide gas that further increases warming.

US Coast guard to increase icebreaker fleet

The United States Coast Guard, whose current fleet of icebreakers includes only two ships, has been given permission from the U.S. Congress to acquire six more. This news come amid Russia’s bid for an industrialized Arctic. The Congress believes that the first new icebreaker should be available no later than the 2023 Fiscal Year, and that the rest should follow shortly after. Congress also outlined a variety of specific plans of defense for areas of the Arctic.

Take 4: Considering Russia’s recent activity in the Arctic, the country’s new plans as detailed in Take 1, and pressure from other nations with an interest in the Arctic, the United States’ response is not surprising. Other points of the authorization from Congress included: $286 million in spending for Alaskan military construction, further cold weather training for all branches of the military, and a search and rescue program capable of dealing with a mass casualty event. However, some experts fear the entire plan is in fact in jeopardy, as it is still possible President Trump could redirect funds towards his border wall project (NavyTimes).

Sea-ice forecasting more precise than ever, but still lacking

Researchers from the National Institute of Polar Research and Hokkaido University have reported findings from their study into the prediction of sea ice thickness using the TOPAZ4 ice-ocean data system. They were able to reliably predict ice thickness up to 3 days in advance. Unfortunately, longer range prediction proved more difficult partially due to weather phenomenon such as Arctic cyclones (ScienceDaily).

Take 5: Despite recent reductions in sea ice, accurate prediction of sea ice thickness and location remain critical to make Arctic shipping routes safe and efficient by allowing vessels to avoid areas with thick ice that can slow down or trap them. Tools like TOPAZ4 will be important in the future of Arctic shipping, but their medium- and long-range forecasting capabilities will need to improve to be more useful (Ocean Science).