The Arctic This Week Take Five: Week of August 13, 2018
Not a Complete Picture
29 scientists from Lund University in Sweden recently published the results from a review study of Arctic climate change research. The goal was to gain better knowledge of our understanding of climate change across the Arctic. The scientists started with googling “Arctic climate change,” giving them over 66 million results. They then limited their search to scholarly publications alone, resulting in 1.39 millions results. From there they focused on an even more refined field, the scientific articles found on August 18, 2015 in a database called the Web of Science. A total of 1,840 scientific articles were found, representing 6,246 locations and more than 58,000 citations in scientific journals. The researchers then extracted data from the 1,840 studies over a period of eight months. During this time the researchers read every article, identified the research station or site involved, and plotted the findings on maps. Their findings showed that 31 percent of the cited studies were derived from research done within 50 km of two research stations, the Toolik Field Station in Alaska, and the Abisko Scientific Research Station in Sweden (CBC News, ScienceDaily).
Take 1: The recent findings are worrisome. The fact that scientists rely on data largely collected in only a handful of Arctic locations means that much of the Arctic is still left untouched by fieldwork, or fieldwork that is done is not reaching the broader scientific community. This includes large areas along Russia’s Arctic coastline, and much of the northern Arctic Archipelago in Canada. It turns out that scientists in the Arctic have only really been studying a small portion of the full spectrum of climates and environments that exists across the region. This is a problem as sparse sampling can mean inaccurate assumptions. It is for example possible that we have an inaccurate grasp of the quantity of carbon storage in permafrost across the Arctic and the release from thawing ground. It is therefore also quite likely that scientists are underestimating the global impact of warming in the Arctic. Field research needs to be distributed more randomly or regularly, not intensely concentrated in few places like it seems to be now.
UK Minsters Remind Government Not to Forget about the High North and the Arctic
On August 15, the UK’s Defense Sub-Committee published a report stating that the country’s ability to defend against growing threats in the High North and Arctic has been put at a huge risk due to cost saving measures, loss of military skills, and a decrease in intellectual investment. It recommends that the country invest more resources to address the rising security situation. The report further points out that the retreating ice has made the Arctic more accessible to shipping and has created a new opportunity for natural resource extraction, exploitation, and competition. A growing threat highlighted in the report is Russia’s military presence in the region. The country has reactivated bases, re-introduced strategic bomber flights over northern airspace, and increased naval activity. In light of the changing situation, the report recommends a greater focus to be put on the Arctic and the High North (The Telegraph).
Take 2: Over the last two decades England’s priorities have shifted away from cold weather warfare and defense of the High North and Arctic region. Like the U.S. it has just started to realize that countries like Russia and China have taken an increased interest in the area. Climate change and the resulting ice melt have turned what was once a generally stable area to one of potential great power competition. UK and the U.S. are both behind in their Arctic investment, and while it has been encouraging to see that the government is finally taken note of that, it’s still moving at a much slower pace in implementing any strategic changes.
Arctic Sea Ice and the Tornado Connection
A study published on August 6 by experts in Climate and Atmospheric Science highlights the potential effect that global climate change is having on the severity of U.S. tornados. It examined the possible connection between melting sea ice, the atmospheric changes it creates, and how that potentially decreases the severity of U.S. tornados. The study points out that the number of tornadoes in the U.S. has been abnormally low in recent years. In order to determine if there was a correlation the scientists examined three decades of historical weather data. They determined that there seems to exist a connection between the scope of Arctic Sea ice and the frequency/strength of tornadoes in the U.S. While the study does not prove causation as there is no definitive evidence, the study proposes that as Arctic Sea ice decreases in the summer months, it changes the atmospheric conditions to such extent that it results in tornadoes occurring less in regions that historically experience a lot of summer tornadoes. The scientists want to further explore how this data can be utilized in the future to help predict severe weather in the future (Climate and Atmospheric Science, ScienceAlert).
Take 3: As scientific knowledge about Arctic ice melt continues to grow it is important that the correlations about how it affects other parts of the world are known. While in this case the scientists are unable to prove that correlation means causation, they are able to determine a potential connection that requires further study. If data like this also help determine and predict future storms, then it should continue to be supported. The general public must be constantly reminded that what happens in the Arctic can and does have potential effects in their daily lives.
Large New Norwegian Ship Seeks to Expand Research
On August 6, the largest research vessel in the world, the RV Kronprins Haakon, a Norwegian polar research icebreaker, set out on its maiden voyage in the Barents Sea. The 1.4 billion NOK ship ($166.5 million) is on a research mission to generate knowledge of Arctic marine areas and provide a better scientific basis for ocean management. It is part of the Nansen Legacy project, Norway’s largest marine research project that involves 10 Norwegian research institutions that together study the complex interactions of ecosystems within the northern Barents Sea. It is estimated that the research vessel will set out on a total of 285 expeditions between 2018-2022 (The Nansen Project).
Take 4: It is important to note that the RV Kronprins Haakon has year round capability providing key data on the environmental state, helping Norway and the region to remain informed on the climate changes that are occurring. The vessel helps Norway maintain a strong reputation in polar and Arctic research, a reputation that has suffered lately, as it has seemed like the country is more focused on resource extraction than conducting environmental research. Being perceived by regional countries as a responsible stakeholder in the Arctic region potentially allows Norway to influence regional decisions in the future. The ship can also potentially allow scientists to conduct field tests in new areas, helping to create a better picture of the environment. It will be exciting to see what research this ship is able to provide the region and the world with.
Russian Train Volunteers to Assist with Clean Up Efforts
On August 14, it was reported that 40 volunteers in Russia have been chosen to participate in an Arctic ecology project after completing a practical training course in the Yamalo-Nenets Region. The participants are between 18 and 55 years in age, and will conduct cleaning as part of a larger clean up project in the region and the surrounding islands. The waste has accumulated there after the first wave of Yamal’s development in the 1960-1970s when environmental standards in extraction of hydrocarbons were less strict. Over the last five years, 150 volunteers have already cleaned more than 52 hectares, and collected approximately 1,200 tonnes of scrap metal and other waste.
Take 5: Russia is taking important steps forward in its clean up efforts of past waste issues. These efforts are necessary if the country seeks to expand its resource extraction into those areas. Even if such efforts are guided by self-interest, they should still be applauded and supported when possible. The volunteer teams that go out into these remote areas are now getting valuable training that hopes to get them ready for the conditions they will face. This not only ensures their safety but also ensures that they are more effective in their clean up efforts. As operations continue to expand in the Arctic, training volunteers on how to conduct ecology clean up will become necessary as the risks of environmental disasters increase.