The Arctic This Week Take Five: Week of April 20, 2020
Ice-Free Summers
A study published on April 17 in the journal Geophysical Research Letters utilized models to show that regardless of current measures taken to reduce carbon emissions, the Arctic will likely not have summer sea ice by 2050. The expectation is that summer sea ice will be gone before then. The new research used newly generated climate models from 21 research institutes. The models also revealed that it is possible that if emissions remain high, winter sea ice could vanish too (Geophysical Research Letters, The Guardian).
Take 1: While the study appears to cast a dim light on current carbon reduction efforts, the researchers are quick to note that models can vary year to year. The models reveal that efforts to cut carbon emissions must be continued and increased to reduce the potential for worst-case scenarios to occur. This new research emphasizes the reality of what the Arctic is facing if we do not act. It should not inspire trepidation.
Economic Aid to Greenland
This week the United States announced that it plans to provide Greenland with a $12.1 million economic aid package. The package aimed at the education, tourism, and natural resource industries seeks to show an increasing U.S. commitment to the autonomous Danish territory. Greenland has welcomed the package even though there has been some skepticism both in Greenland and in Denmark on what the U.S. is trying to accomplish. The U.S. also intends to open a consulate in Greenland’s capital, the first time since 1953 (Reuters).
Take 2: The U.S. has begun to show increasing interest in the region. This investment is a sign of the growing ties between Greenland and the U.S. While the U.S. claims that there is no hidden motive with the package, the fact that it focuses on natural resources is a sign that the U.S. seeks to strengthen what it believes is growing partnership. With both Russia and China vying for resources in the region, the U.S. needs friends wherever it can find them. This is a good first step in that path even though it has been met with some skepticism.
Arctic Behemoth
On April 23 it was announced that two Russian companies, Atomflot (a subsidiary of nuclear group Rosatom) in Vladivostok and Zvezda shipyard in Murmansk, remotely signed a deal to build the world’s largest and most powerful icebreaker. This icebreaker, also known as the Project 10510 Lider type, will be used to provide year-round navigations along the Northern Sea Route and will be so powerful that it can crush through ice that is more than 4 meters thick, and have a displacement of 55,000 tons or twice as much the current class of ships. It will be commissioned in 2027, and two more of these icebreakers are planned in 2030 and 2032 (The Barents Observer).
Take 3: Russian investment into icebreakers continues even during these economically unstable times. The country continues to reinforce its Arctic policy with action. These actions are not insignificant given the current global environment. Russia does indeed view the Arctic region as its future and continues its investment. Other Arctic countries need to remain aware of this and decide if they wish to follow suit and increase their own investment. As of right now, the global economy is about to enter a recession, and while many countries might want to compete in the region, they might not have the resources to do so. Russia seems poised to take advantage.
The Fight for Norway’s Future
This week Norway’s Supreme Court decided to hear the case “The People vs. Arctic Oil.” The case involves Greenpeace Norway, Nature and Youth, Friends of the Earth Norway, and Grandparents Climate Campaign. The plaintiffs believe that the Norwegian government must be held accountable for violating the constitution (article 112), which protects the right to a healthy environment. The groups claim that Norway’s oil drilling and exports are causing continual harm to the environment, thus violating the rights. The groups have lost their case in both district and appeals courts (The Barents Observer).
Take 4: We have been following this case since it first appeared in 2018, and while the environmental groups have lost at the lower courts, that has not deterred their desire to fight for their constitutional right. The groups’ argument does hold some weight. Norway exports ten times more greenhouse gas emissions than it uses domestically. For a country that prides itself in being green, it continues to be a major oil and natural gas exporter at the same time. How this case plays out in the public sphere might be more important than what actually happens in the courtroom. As this case develops, expect us to continue reporting.
Canadian Arctic COVID Vulnerability
While the world faces a global challenge in combating the COVID-19 pandemic, communities in the Canadian Arctic are at particular risk. Dr. Pertice Moffitt, a manager and instructor at the Health Research Programs at the Aurora College in Yellowknife Canada, and co-investigator for the Canadian Domestic Homicide Prevention Initiative for Vulnerable Populations 2015-2020, has stated that these communities are at an increased risk due to social challenges they have historically faced. For example, the COVID isolation creates an increased risk for more domestic violence within households. In a “regular” year, intimate partner violence in the Northwest Territories is seven times higher than the national rate. At the same time with communities and shelters dispersed, getting aid or supplies to people in need becomes a greater challenge (High North News).
Take 5: Oftentimes in our discussions on the Arctic it can be overlooked that communities in the region face a unique set of challenges. In regular years these challenges cause stress to households and local governance, more so now during a time of crisis. As governments and aid organizations scramble to assist populations, pressure must be maintained on them to ensure that the most vulnerable communities get the support they need.