The Arctic This Week Take Five: Week of April 18, 2022
Russian Worries over Increased NATO Military Activity in the Arctic
As reported by Reuters on April 17, the Russian Ambassador at Large for Arctic Cooperation Nikolai Korchunov has expressed that Russia is concerned about an increase in NATO military activity in the Arctic. The ambassador referenced the recent Arctic military exercise Cold Response, where around 35,000 troops from 27 allied countries undertake training in northern Norway, and also saw non-aligned Finnish and Swedish forces participating for the first time. He stated that such activity could contribute to “unintended incidents,” which can cause serious risks to regional security and the Arctic ecosystem. (Reuters)
Take 1: Although the Cold Response NATO military exercise has been long-planned and is held every two years, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is contributing to a stronger focus on this year’s exercise. A greater emphasis on traditional security concerns and heightened regional tensions have resulted in an increase in NATO operations in the Arctic, with Cold Response one such example. As nations continue to develop or strengthen their Arctic military capabilities, these operations raise the possibility of armed conflict. Moreover, the increasing competition from non-Arctic countries such as China further increases the likelihood of confrontation or accidents, which if to occur, could cause severe damage to regional stability and harm the environment as well as Indigenous communities. Military activity in the Arctic is particularly risky due to a lack of mechanisms to avoid miscommunication and resolve disputes. After Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, Russia was excluded from the Arctic Security Forces Roundtable (ASFR) while another major military forum, the Arctic Chiefs of Defense, was dismantled entirely. With the activities of the largest platform for cooperation, The Arctic Council, now suspended indefinitely, opportunities for dialogue have been severely reduced. As the region continues to change, Arctic activity, especially military activity, is set to increase. Therefore, restoring multi-lateral forums and resuming discussions should be a significant priority in mitigating the potential for military confrontation. (European Security, NATO Review)
Russia to Test Out Ultra-Low Sulfur Shipping Fuels in Arctic Science Expedition
As reported by The Barents Observer on April 19, the Russian research vessel Severny Polyus will be the first Russian science ship to be fueled with ultra-low sulfur diesel (ULSD). ULSD is a type of fuel oil that contains a maximum of 15 parts per million (ppm) of sulfur, substantially less than traditional heavy oils which can contain up to 3000 ppm. While the ice-resistant research platform began trials last fall, its maiden voyage is scheduled to take place in October. (The Barents Observer).
Take 2: Shipping is a large contributor to climate change. While melting ice has made new trade routes possible, shipping is also particularly harmful for the Arctic. When ships using heavy fuel oils pass through the region, they emit large quantities of the short-lived climate pollutant ‘black carbon.’ As engine emissions coat surrounding snow and ice, the dark soot left behind increases the amount of energy absorbed by the ice, causing it to melt significantly faster while accelerating Arctic warming at the same time. More environmentally-friendly alternatives, like ultra-low sulfur diesel (ULSD), have been developed to comply with the International Maritime Organization’s (IMO) 2020 restrictions on the sulfur content in fuel oils. However, although ULSD usage reduces harmful sulfur oxide emissions, studies have found that ULSD may significantly increase black carbon emissions due to their chemical structure. Nevertheless, there is still uncertainty about the fuel’s exact impact. Even so, environmental groups have urged the IMO to ban the use of both heavy and very low sulfur fuel oils in the Arctic and require ship operators to use even cleaner alternative fuels. As the Arctic continues to warm and trade routes become more accessible, ship traffic is expected to increase. Thus, further research into fuel emissions and stronger regulations are necessary to ensure that shipping in the Arctic is safe and that the critical Arctic environment is protected. (Arctic Today, Clean Arctic Alliance, The Guardian).
New Program Aims To Monitor, Mitigate And Adapt To Arctic-Wide Permafrost Thaw
As reported by Arctic Today on April 18, the Woodwell Climate Research Center, the Arctic Initiative at the Harvard Kennedy School, and the Alaska Institute for Justice have announced a new multi-year research program called Permafrost Pathways. The $41 million program intends to fill in the gaps between existing permafrost monitoring mechanisms in the Arctic and provide policy responses to mitigate permafrost thaw. It will also provide tools for Arctic communities to adapt to permafrost loss and assist Indigenous communities with the implementation of climate policies (Arctic Today).
Take 3: Permafrost is estimated to hold double the amount of carbon than currently in the atmosphere. But with climate change thawing this perennially frozen ground, these carbon stores risk being released. With over 15% of the land in the Northern Hemisphere underlain with permafrost, the outcome could be additional billions of tons of carbon emissions. It is clear that permafrost thaw not only has severe consequences for the Arctic environment, but will also contribute substantially to global warming. Yet, despite the dangers, emissions from permafrost thaw are generally not considered in climate policies, due in part to gaps in monitoring capabilities. By filling in these critical data gaps, the Permafrost Pathways program will strengthen understanding of permafrost thaw and provide essential information to policymakers. It is valuable that the program intends to also measure the impacts of permafrost degradation for Indigenous communities, a problem arguably receiving insufficient attention. Many forms of infrastructure rely on permafrost. When it melts, it can result in catastrophic changes to the landscape such as flooding, landslides, and erosion, damaging houses, buildings, water supplies, and other structures along the way. Since most governmental frameworks are designed to respond to acute crises, the program is an important step in assisting Indigenous communities adapt to the potentially life-threatening consequences of permafrost thaw and to respond to other long-term impacts of a rapidly changing Arctic. (Harvard Kennedy School, Indigenous Climate Hub, UN News)
Canadian North Reconnects Iqaluit And Kuujjuaq After 2-Year Break
As reported by Nunatsiaq News on April 18, the airline Canadian North resumed direct flights between the two Indigenous communities of Iqaluit and Kuujjuaq on April 14 after the flight had been canceled for approximately two years due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The new easing of health regulations in Canada will increase the company’s air traffic and significantly reduce travel time between the two communities. Ten passengers were on the first flight to Kuujjuaq. (Arctic Today)
Take 4: The COVID-19 pandemic has caused significant disruptions and has disconnected people around the world. In particular travel restrictions and national health measures have impacted Indigenous communities. Many Indigenous communities are in remote locations with little to no road access. These communities greatly depend on air travel to connect their communities.The restrictions have greatly isolated the communities as the delivery of essential goods and services have become more expensive and time-consuming. Due to the increased cost and difficulty, people in communities such as Iqaluit and Kuujjuaq may not have been able to see each other for nearly two years. In addition to the social cost, COVID measures have had devastating effects on airlines, especially regional or Indigenous-owned airlines. With the loss of air traffic, several Indigenous-owned airlines face bankruptcy, leading to the loss of employment for many and increasing inequality. As health regulations are eased in numerous jurisdictions, air services between Indigenous communities are beginning to resume. As a completely Inuit-owned airline in Canada, Canadian North’s decision to restore its direct flight between Iqaluit and Kuujjuaq serves to reconnect Indigenous communities but also supports the continuation of Indigenous-owned businesses. As the world continues to recover from the pandemic, it is important to continue to identify and address the impacts that COVID-19 has had on Indigenous communities. (Arctic Council, Statistics Canada)
Climate Toll On US Arctic Bases: Sunken Runways, Damaged Roads
As reported by The Associated Press on April 15, the inspector general of the United States Department of Defense has released a report which states that none of the United States’ six military installations in the Arctic and sub-Arctic are implementing the required policies to prepare their installations for climate change. Inspections of the six US bases located in Greenland and Alaska showed that all bases experienced damage from climate change, including cracked runways and collapsed flood barriers. (The Associated Press)
Take 5: The US military has long recognized that climate change poses a severe threat to its facilities and installations around the world. With the Arctic warming at accelerating rates, the US’ military installations in Greenland and Alaska are particularly at risk. As the ice melts, it can harm the structural integrity of infrastructures such as roads, runways, pipelines, and buildings. The changing climate also contributes to flooding and other natural disasters. Over time these damages can reduce combat readiness and potentially compromise the capabilities of the installations. Ensuring the long-term preparedness of the six US bases in the Arctic is important due to the increasing militarization and competition in the region. In its Arctic strategy, the Department of Defense has identified the Arctic as a national security priority and a potential point for attack on the US. Russia is a concern because it has continued to project its influence in the Arctic by expanding its military forces, including constructing military bases, installing air defense systems, and stationing fighter planes and hypersonic missiles. Moreover, China has been increasing its involvement in the region through their Polar Silk Road while also constructing potential dual-use infrastructure. In addition to potential military attacks, increasing activity in the region can threaten shipping and critical infrastructure such as undersea cables. Therefore, it is clear that maintaining bases is crucial for the US to respond to emerging threats and continue its presence in the region. (Atlantic Council, Department of Defense)