The Arctic This Week Take Five: Week of 9 September, 2024
Russia Exaggerates Size of Its Fleet in Arctic Navy Exercises
Newsweek reported on September 11 that Russian president Vladimir Putin has been accused of exaggerating the size of Russia’s naval fleet, which is currently participating in the large-scale joint military drill “Ocean-2024” together with China. The Russian Defense Ministry claimed over 400 vessels would be involved in the exercises, but Russian investigative outlet Agentsvo revealed that Russia’s active fleet is closer to 265-299 ships, with fewer than 200 available for the drills after excluding the Black Sea Fleet. (Newsweek)
Take 1: Russia overstating its naval capacities in ambitious military exercises alludes to the potential decline of Russia’s maritime power, raising questions about its actual readiness and influence in strategically vital areas like the Arctic. It reveals vulnerabilities in Russia’s naval force, which has also been under attack by a retaliating Ukraine, resulting in the loss of key vessels like the Moskva. The real size of Russia’s active fleet is revealed to be far below the claims made by the Russian Defense Ministry. This discrepancy not only undermines Russia’s strategic messaging but also reflects broader challenges, including the decline of its icebreaker fleet dominance in the Arctic, and the wear and tear on its naval assets. The implications of this are notable. As Russia struggles to maintain its naval presence, particularly in the Arctic, it risks losing influence in a region vital for its geopolitical and geoeconomics interests. Meanwhile, China’s involvement in these exercises underscores its growing interest in the region and its potential to fill the power vacuum left by Russia. This shift could alter the balance of power in the Arctic, leading to increased competition and potential militarization of the region. Moreover, the perceived decline of Russia’s naval power amidst its assertive rhetoric and large-scale exercises may embolden other nations to challenge Russian interests or expand their own Arctic capabilities. (Legion, Newsweek, The Jamestown Foundation, USNI News)
US Coast Guard’s Icebreaker Healy is Repaired and Returns to Arctic Next Month
KNOM shared on September 11 that icebreaker Healy, belonging to the US Coast Guard, is set to return to the Arctic next month after completing dry rock repairs for over three weeks in its homeport in Seattle following an electrical fire. The US Coast Guard and the US National Science Foundation are now looking for new research opportunities for the 27-year-old icebreaker for the remainder of the year. (KNOM)
Take 2: The return of the US Coast Guard’s Healy icebreaker marks a critical development for American operational capacity in the Arctic. After the vessel caught on fire earlier in August, it was estimated that the US would be left without any Arctic surface presence for the remainder of 2024, as the only other icebreaking vessel, the 55-year-old Polar Star, is kept in dry dock to extend its service life. As Healy had to return to Seattle for repairs, two Arctic scientific missions as well as a patrol of the Northwest Passage had to be cancelled. This came at a time when geopolitical rivals like China and Russia are ramping up their activities in the region. Although Healy will be back in business soon, the incident has revealed the vulnerabilities of the aging US icebreaker fleet, hampering the US’ ability to maintain a consistent Arctic presence. This is in shrill contrast with China and Russia rapidly expanding their icebreaker capabilities, illustrated by China’s deployment of its first domestically produced polar research vessel Xue Long 2, and Russia launching its first “combat” icebreaker. As such, an inconsistent presence of the US will not only limit its ability to conduct vital scientific research, it also weakens the strategic positioning of the US in an increasingly contested region, highlighting the need for urgent modernization in its icebreaker fleet. (Alaska Public Media, gCaptain, KNOM, Marine Insight, The Arctic Institute)
NATO Fighter Jets Practice Landings on Arctic Highways for the First Time
As covered by High North News on September 10, US F-35A and German Eurofighter jets have, for the first time, successfully landed on European Arctic highways in Finnish Lapland. This happened in the context of the Baana 24 exercise, wherein NATO allies Germany, Finland and the United States participated to enhance their Agile Combat Employment (ACE) tactics. The jets landed on reinforced highway strips near Rovaniemi and Ranua. (High North News)
Take 3: As the Arctic becomes more accessible due to climate change, it is emerging as a strategic focal point where military, economic, and geopolitical interests converge. This development demonstrates NATO’s increasing focus on ensuring preparedness and operational capacity in the Arctic, a regional critical for regional stability as well as broader international security. The ability to use highways as makeshift runways enhances NATO’s Agile Combat Employment capabilities, which are vital for maintaining flexibility and rapid response options in the Arctic’s challenging environment. The highways were located some 200km from the Russian border and its strategic maritime routes, signaling NATO’s commitment to defending its northern flank. The use of unconventional locations like Arctic highways for dispersed operations not only reinforces NATO’s adaptability but also serves as a deterrent against potential adversaries who might see the Arctic as an opportunity for power projection. While the exercise underscores the importance of interoperability among NATO allies, especially as new members like Finland integrate into the alliance’s defense architecture, it also reflects a growing recognition that security in the Arctic is pivotal to overall NATO defense strategy, especially as Arctic sea routes continue to open and potential resource conflicts loom. As such, it sends a strong message about NATO’s readiness to safeguard the region, as all but one of the Arctic states are now part of the alliance. (Euronews, High North News, NATO, Wilson Center)
Russia Sends Conventional LNG Carrier Through the Arctic
gCaptain reported on September 9 that Russian LNG producer Novatek has dispatched the non-ice class LNG carrier Everest Energy through the Northern Sea Route, marking the first time a conventional gas carrier has attempted this route. Lacking a permit from Russia’s Northern Sea Route Administration and operating under a suspended Palauan flag, the voyage aims todeliver sanctioned LNG to Asia. (gCaptain)
Take 4: Russia’s decision to send a non-ice class LNG carrier, the Everest Energy, through the risky Northern Sea Route marks a significant escalation in its attempt to circumvent Western sanctions, reflecting a last resort strategy by Russia to maintain its LNG exports amidst tightening US sanctions targeting the Arctic LNG 2 project. Deploying a non-ice class vessel in the Arctic raises substantial safety and environmental concerns. Unlike ice-class vessels that are designed to withstand the harsh Arctic conditions, conventional ships are more vulnerable to ice damage, increasing the risk of accidents and oil spills. Moreover, the Northern Sea Route is characterized by unpredictable ice conditions, extreme weather and limited search and rescue infrastructure, rendering navigation inherently dangerous, especially for vessels not built for these conditions. This increases the risks for accidents, which can result in large-scale spills of LNG or bunker fuel, resulting in irreversible harm for the fragile Arctic ecosystem as the repercussions from spills persist for decades. Moreover, the use of non-compliant vessels undermines international regulations governing Arctic shipping, setting a concerning precedent for other countries and companies seeking to bypass stringent regulations in pursuit of economic gains. On a global scale, this development underscores the complexities and potential dangers of Russia’s increasing reliance on a shadow fleet to bypass sanctions. As Western sanctions continue to tighten, Russia’s unconventional shipping methods reveal the limitations and vulnerabilities of Russia’s Arctic LNG ambitions, as stalling LNG exports could significantly impact its economy. (Elcano Royal Institute, gCaptain, Pipeline & Gas Journal, United24)
New Cultural Centre in Nunavut Rethinks Arctic Building Principles
CBC News reported on September 6 about the inauguration of a new cultural center, the Kuugalaaq Cultural Centre, in Cambridge Bay, Nunavut, to provide elders with a space to share traditional skills and preserve Innuinnait culture. Designed with input from local elders using Innuinnait principles combined with modern building technology, the Centre aims to replicate the feeling of traditional igloos and skin tents. The design features a hexagonal shape and is equipped with sustainable features like solar panels and non-flammable, mold-resistant wall panels. (CBC News)
Take 5: By integrating Inuinnait design principles with modern building technology, the newly opened Kuugalaaq Cultural Centre offers a model for sustainable and culturally resonant architecture in one of the world’s most challenging environments. This approach is particularly important as traditional building methods, such as igloos and skin tents, have proven effective in the Arctic environment for generations. However, adapting the principles underlying these methods with new materials and technologies such as non-flammable panels and energy-efficient systems, ensures that these designs are upgraded to fit contemporary needs and standards, promoting resilience in the face of climate change. The Centre’s focus on preserving Inuit culture by providing a space for elders to pass down traditional skills, such as preparing animal hides and sewing, is crucial in a world where Indigenous knowledge is often marginalized and forgotten. The in-house elder-in-training program further supports the intergenerational transfer of knowledge, ensuring the survival of Inuinnait culture and language, demonstrating a viable model for Indigenous communities to sustain their heritage in rapidly modernizing societies. Moreover, the development of Kuugalaaq as an off-grid, sustainable structure highlights the urgent need to rethink building practices in the Arctic and other vulnerable regions and offers valuable lessons in adaptive design. By promoting sustainable building practices and supporting cultural preservation, the Kuugalaaq Cultural Centre provides a blueprint for balancing modern needs with traditional values while addressing the dual challenge of cultural preservation and climate resilience. (CBC News, Constructive Voices, Medium, Safe Homes Movement)