The Arctic This Week Take Five: Week of 6 November, 2023

Willow Oil Project in Alaska’s Arctic Given Approval to Proceed

As reported by NPR on November 9, U.S. federal Judge Sharon Gleason gave approval on Thursday for the Willow oil project on Alaska’s North Slope led by ConocoPhillips, dismissing legal challenges from environmental groups. A social media TikTok campaign from activists has been urging the Biden administration to intervene, highlighting concerns about climate impacts and potential harm to polar bears. Despite concerns, Judge Gleason ruled in favor of the government’s analysis, stating it aligned with environmental laws and Alaska’s National Petroleum Reserve (NPR-A) goals. ConocoPhillips plans to resume construction on December 21. (NPR)

Take 1: While environmentalists plan to appeal, the Biden administration says it will balance this development with proposed rules limiting future oil and gas activities in the NPR-A, which demonstrates ongoing government efforts to curb Arctic oil production. The trade-off between environmental conservation and economic interests brings forth the tensions that commonly arise between economic and environmental needs. On one hand, ConocoPhillips praises the Willow project’s potential economic benefits, including an estimated $7.6 billion in revenue and job creation. Supporters argue that this revenue is crucial for local governments in the region, grappling with scarce job opportunities and the challenges posed by climate change. Certain Alaska Native associations and corporations have endorsed the project, emphasizing its minimal footprint and adherence to stringent environmental protections. However, the region, home to threatened polar bears and crucial migratory bird habitats, faces potential harm from increased greenhouse gas emissions and habitat disruption. The government’s estimate of 260 million metric tons of emissions raises valid concerns, equivalent to putting two million extra cars on the road for 30 years. This ongoing debate will influence the future of Arctic oil projects, with both the economic and environmental impacts demanding careful considerations. (NPR)

Construction Finalized on First Operational Orbital Spaceport in Continental Europe

As reported by High North News on November 5, Andøya Spaceport in Northern Norway was officially inaugurated by Crown Prince Haakon of Norway. The facility will become the first operational orbital spaceport in continental Europe to finalize construction of the launch site, finishing in under 18 months. Built for launching satellites into polar orbits, the Arctic location was chosen because of its minimal air and sea traffic and direct access to such orbits without traversing other countries’ airspace. (High North News)

Take 2: The rapid construction of Andøya Spaceport highlights the growing interest in space activities, not just from established space agencies but also from commercial entities. The fact that a private company, Isar Aerospace, is the spaceport’s first customer, securing a 20-year contract, underscores the commercial potential of space endeavors. This aligns with the broader trend of the privatization and commercialization of space, dubbed “New Space”. The concept of “New Space” also offers thoughtful solutions to the growing concerns surrounding space debris and satellite proliferation, which are important considerations in exploring space sustainably. It’s a sign that space is no longer the exclusive domain of governments but a frontier where private enterprises can make a significant impact. At the same time, the wider geopolitical context cannot be overlooked. The development aligns with Norway’s ambitions to establish itself as a space nation, bolstering national defense and supporting NATO’s space interests. The urgency to establish this spaceport may therefore have been intensified by the conflict in Ukraine and the subsequent sanctions from the West. Europe’s quest for its own spaceport has gained momentum, demonstrating the increasing importance of space as a domain for both economic and strategic interests. Andøya Spaceport calls attention to the valuable role of Norway’s Arctic region for space activities – a domain experiencing an increase in international attention in recent years. (Andoya Space, High North News, Space News)

Ship Suspected of Sabotage Sails Toward Bering Strait

As reported by The Barents Observer on November 6, the container ship Newnew Polar Bear, which is suspected of sabotaging underwater infrastructure in the Baltic Sea, is sailing course to the Bering Straight after making it through the Chukchi Sea. Finnish authorities are also investigating its possible involvement in damaging communication cables, leading to heightened security measures in the Baltic Sea. The ship sails under a Hong Kong flag but has connections to Russia, with its sailing permission issued by the General Administration of the Northern Sea Route, addressed to Torgmoll, a Russian-registered logistics company with offices in Moscow and Shanghai. Finnish authorities indicate that had the ship not been in international waters, it would have been arrested in October. (The Barents Observer)

Take 3: The Northern Sea Route, which the Newnew Polar Bear navigated, represents a rapidly changing landscape due to climate change. The Arctic’s ice is melting at an alarming rate, opening new possibilities for shipping and resource extraction. This stresses the urgent need for international cooperation and stringent regulations to protect this fragile ecosystem and ensure responsible use of these newfound opportunities. The suspicion surrounding the Newnew Polar Bear, including its alleged involvement in damaging critical infrastructure such as the Balticconnector gas pipeline and communication cables between Sweden and Estonia, reveals the vulnerabilities in the Arctic’s security landscape. These suspicions call for comprehensive security measures and cooperation among Arctic nations. Moreover, the ship’s complex ownership structure, sailing under the Hong Kong flag but linked to Russia and China, highlight the challenge of regulating maritime activity in the Arctic. Clear governance mechanisms are needed in the Arctic to effectively monitor and manage shipping in the region. The Newnew Polar Bear’s journey highlights the broader geopolitical and economic dynamics at play in the Arctic. It is a region rich in resources, including oil and gas, minerals, and fish stocks, making it an area of growing interest to nations like Russia, China, and the United States. The Arctic’s importance as a potential trade route between Asia and Europe cannot be overstated, which will become increasingly strategic for certain countries. (RCINet, The Barents Observer)

New Study Reveals Unnoticed Warming Effect on Polar Amplification

As reported by The Conversation on November 7, a new study, from researchers at the University of New South Wales, has revealed a previously unnoticed warming effect on “polar amplification”, caused by stratospheric clouds over the Arctic. Using a high-resolution atmospheric model that includes the stratosphere, the study reveals how polar stratospheric clouds, which become more common with increased greenhouse gas levels, contribute to Arctic warming. The research also develops forecasting techniques for predicting future climate changes, such as ice sheet melting and permafrost thawing. By analyzing past climates, especially the extreme polar amplification during the early Eocene, the study provides insights into the role of these clouds in warming the polar regions. (The Conversation)

Take 4: Climate models simulate the effect of “polar amplification”, but when tested against the last 40 years of warming and increased greenhouse gases, have proven unsuccessful. These models are the same ones used for future climate projections, risking high inaccuracies in future forecasting. This study highlights the challenges climate models face in accurately simulating this phenomenon when compared to the last four decades of warming and historical periods characterized by high greenhouse gas levels. The atmosphere models developed were complex enough to test paleoclimatologist Lisa Sloan’s hypothesis from 1992, who suggested that polar stratospheric clouds might have caused extreme warming at high latitudes. The ability to test previously untestable hypotheses is a promising step forward for climate research. As well, the models predict that, despite their warming effect, these clouds will be less prevalent in the future due to shifts in continents and mountains. This knowledge enhances climate modeling accuracy for both historical climates and future projections. Understanding and modelling historical climates help inform future climates under different global scenarios. The significance of forecasting future climate changes, including risks like ice sheet melting and permafrost thawing, is that they hold a central role in climate policy decisions. (Nature, TheConversation)

Salmon Farm in Iceland Required to Harvest Due to Lice and Bacteria Outbreak

As reported on November 6 by Seafood Source, a salmon farm, Arctic Fish, in Tálknafjörður, Iceland, has been required to harvest fish due to a rapid increase in sea lice levels. The escalating sea lice situation caused injuries to the fish, prompting the company’s decision. The situation was further complicated by an outbreak of environmental bacteria. In response, the Icelandic Food and Veterinary Authority (MAST) has instructed aquaculture companies to seek non-pharmaceutical lice treatments from abroad. . (Seafood Source)

Take 5: This lice outbreak serves as a testament to the vulnerability of ecosystems in the Arctic. Sea lice outbreaks are not unique to Iceland; they are a common problem in salmon farms. Additionally, the simultaneous outbreak of environmental bacteria exacerbates the crisis and highlights the complex web of interconnections within Arctic ecosystems. As Arctic waters warm, we can expect such unforeseen complications to arise more frequently, affecting not only fish farms but also native wildlife and the local communities that rely on these ecosystems. The problem was first reported in October, where the two salmon farming companies faced sea lice issues in the Westfjords region. A kayaker and conservationist documented injured salmon in Arctic Fish’s net-pens, with one million salmon dying due to sea lice damage. This outlines how the public can have an influence on private companies’ action. (Seafood Source, The Guardian)