The Arctic This Week Take Five: Week of 26 August, 2024

Russia Operates ‘Shadow Fleet’ of LNG Tankers in Barents Sea

As reported by High North News on August 22, at least three Russian LNG carriers—part of the so-called ‘shadow fleet’—are currently operating in the Barents Sea. These vessels are reportedly bypassing U.S. sanctions by spoofing their AIS transponder signals to conceal their positions after loading liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Russia’s Arctic LNG 2 facility. Norway has not responded to inquiries about whether they will take action against the vessels, which have been traveling through Norwegian waters. (High North News)

Take 1: The emergence of Russia’s shadow fleet in the Barents Sea, used to transport while evading international sanctions, has significant implications for Arctic security and cooperation. This fleet, engaging in activities like AIS spoofing—sending out fake positioning signals—to avoid detection, poses several risks. First, it exacerbates geopolitical tensions in the Arctic, where Russia’s actions challenge maritime norms and put Norway in a difficult position regarding its Arctic waters. Oil and gas exports are crucial for Russia’s economic stability, which is why some sanctions have been directed specifically at specific Russian LNG projects. . Second, the use of older vessels, frequently un- or underinsured, increases the likelihood of maritime accidents, which could lead to severe environmental disasters in the fragile Arctic ecosystem. The Barents Sea, partially in Norway’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ), is especially vulnerable​. Ships flying flags of convenience—especially the so-called ‘black flags’ of countries deemed to have the lowest standards of maritime regulation enforcement, such as Palau—are especially difficult to prosecute. Finally, this situation highlights the broader issue of Arctic militarization. The Arctic has become a strategic front in the broader conflict between Russia and Western powers, with Russia leveraging its control over LNG supplies as a tool of influence. This undermines efforts at Arctic cooperation, particularly those focused on sustainable development and environmental protection,​ and in particular complicates the role of Norway whose EEZ directly borders Russia’s as well as international Arctic waters. Russia’s shadow fleet threatens Arctic security and represents a broader challenge to international maritime law and multilateral cooperation. (Atlantic Council, Eurasia Review, High North News, High North News, S&P Global)

Finland in Negotiations to Host NATO Troops in the North

The Barents Observer reported on August 26 that Finland is in discussions with various NATO member states to station NATO troops in Lapland as part of efforts to bolster Northern defense capabilities. Lapland is Finland’s northernmost region, directly bordering Russia. The proposal would see Norwegian and Swedish troops along with other NATO forces deployed near the Russian border during crisis situations. (The Barents Observer)

Take 2: Finland’s negotiations to host NATO troops in the Lapland region point to a continuing shift in NATO’s Arctic strategy, marking a deeper commitment to the region’s security. This move, which places NATO forces in immediate proximity to the Russian border, underscores the alliance’s recognition of the Arctic as a strategic region in its collective defense efforts. Lapland is Finland’s largest and northernmost region, largely north of the Arctic Circle, and, like the rest of Finland, shares a very long eastern border with Russia. The Arctic’s growing geopolitical importance, driven by climate change and increased resource accessibility has heightened tensions, particularly between NATO and Russia​. Stationing NATO troops in Finland’s North enhances the alliance’s deterrence capabilities, providing a rapid response option to potential threats from Russia and providing troops with more Arctic-specific training. This is crucial given Russia’s ongoing military build-up in the Arctic; Finland’s geographic position offers NATO strategic access to the Arctic, enabling better surveillance and defense of the Northern Flank​. This development signals a broader trend of NATO’s increasing focus on Arctic security, as seen in recent military exercises and partnerships with Arctic nations like Norway and Canada (such as Nordic Response in spring 2024). Finland’s recent joining of NATO and its active involvement in it strengthens NATO’s posture in the region. In conclusion, hosting NATO troops in Lapland not only enhances Finland’s own defense capabilities but also reinforces NATO’s presence in the Arctic and its commitment to maintaining Northern security amidst rising geopolitical challenges. (Defense News, The Barents Observer, Yle, Wilson Center)

Meeting on Developing Russian Arctic Takes Place in Arkhangelsk

Polar Journal reported on August 27 that a meeting in Arkhangelsk, Russia, brought together Russian regional leaders and representatives from China, India, and the United Arab Emirates to discuss the development of the Russian Arctic. The discussions focused on advancing infrastructure projects, such as development of the Port of Arkhangelsk and increasing container shipping by Chinese and Dubai-based companies. (Polar Journal)

Take 3: The Arkhangelsk meeting clearly points to Russia’s intensified focus on Arctic development, with significant implications for Arctic defense, resource extraction, and shipping routes. This gathering ofRussian, Chinese, Indian, and Emirati representatives, so-called ‘friendly nations,’ reflects Russia’s strategic interest in not only securing its northern territories through military enhancements but also in bolstering industrial development and infrastructure. The information available about the meeting shows, however, that not many countries are willing to publicly invest in Russia, and those that are–such as China and the United Arab Emirates—have pledged rather modestly. Arkhangelsk, unlike Murmansk, is not an ice-free port, and opening the Northern Sea Route to regular container traffic will require additional icebreaker capabilities. On the other hand, Arkhangelsk is much further East than Murmansk and so the shift in focus may also indicate Russia’s desire to move its strategic industry and infrastructure further away from European observers, particularly in Norway and Finland. Due to Western sanctions, Russia would benefit significantly from being able to export LNG via the Northern Sea Route. The opening of new shipping routes is central to Russia’s Arctic strategy and its turn East after its complete break with Western countries. Control over these routes not only enhances Russia’s economic position but also increases its influence in global trade. The discussions in Arkhangelsk underscore Russia’s determination to leverage these new opportunities, solidifying its strategic advantage in the Arctic, but also highlight the fact that it cannot afford to invest in Arctic development in its own territory and might become particularly dependent on Chinese investment. (GIS, Lloyd’s List, Polar Journal, South China Morning Post)

Global Team of Scientists Studies Rising Sea Levels in North Greenland

WMUR reported on August 27 that researchers from the University of New Hampshire are working with over 40 international scientists to study Arctic sea level rise. They are part of the GEOEO North of Greenland 2024 Expedition, exploring Victoria Fjord aboard the icebreaker ODEN. Using robotic vehicles, they are mapping the seafloor and collecting ice samples to understand Greenland’s melting ice sheet. The team’s findings aim to improve predictions of future sea level changes. (WMUR)

Take 4: The University of New Hampshire’s team’s participation in the GEOEO North of Greenland 2024 Expedition underscores the critical importance of Arctic research in understanding global climate change and in particular in the significance of Greenland as an essential site of global climate research. The Arctic, and especially the rapidly melting Greenland ice sheet, plays a crucial role in global sea level rise. By mapping and sampling previously-inaccessible areas like Victoria Fjord (in the northernmost part of Greenland) and analyzing ice samples, researchers are gathering vital data that could enhance our predictions of sea level changes. This research is significant not just for its scientific contributions, but also for its collaborative aspects. Scientists from around the world are coming together to tackle one of the most pressing issues of our time: climate change. Such global cooperation is essential for developing comprehensive strategies to mitigate the impact of rising sea levels, which threaten coastal communities worldwide. The expedition also highlights the role of advanced technology—like remotely operated vehicles—in exploring and understanding otherwise remote and challenging environments. As the Arctic undergoes rapid changes due to global warming, studies like this are crucial for informing policy decisions and developing adaptive measures to protect vulnerable regions. The UNH team’s work exemplifies the importance of combining technological innovation with international collaboration to address complex global environmental challenges. (NASA Sea Level Change, Swedish Polar Research Secretariat, UArctic, WMUR)

New Underwater Device to Count King Crab in Barents Sea

As reported by The Barents Observer on August 23, researchers from the Norwegian Institute of Marine Research have tested a new self-propelled autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV), the Triton, in Porsangerfjord in Northern Norway to count king crabs more efficiently. Unlike traditional methods that involve researchers manually counting crabs in video footage taken by underwater cameras, the AUV captures high-resolution images at a rate of three frames per second, eliminating the need for physical capture or manual observation of the crabs.The collected data will be used to inform Norway’s annual fishing quotas. (The Barents Observer)

Take 5: The testing of the Triton in Norway’s Porsangerfjord marks a significant advancement in Arctic fishery research and management. King crabs, originally native to the North Pacific Ocean, were introduced into the Barents Sea by Soviet scientists in the 1960s to create a new fishery resource. Since then, the species has proliferated, becoming both an economic boon and an environmental concern. The crabs have spread to Norwegian waters, where they support a lucrative multi-million dollar industry. However, their invasive nature and lack of predators threaten local marine ecosystems and habitats (including those of cod and herring), making effective management crucial. Triton’s deployment represents a leap forward in this management effort. Traditional crab counting methods are labour-intensive, costly, and environmentally taxing, involving large vessels, teams of researchers, and manual data collection from video. In contrast, the use of AUV technology improves efficiency by capturing high-resolution images of the seafloor, reducing the need for extensive human intervention. This technology lowers the carbon footprint and provides more precise data on crab populations and their distribution, enabling scientists to monitor a larger area than before. This data is essential for setting accurate and effective fishing quotas, which in turn ensure that the invasive king crab population is kept in check while allowing the industry to thrive. The broader significance of the Triton’s success lies in its potential application across the Arctic. As climate change continues to alter the region’s ecosystems, innovative technologies like this could become indispensable tools for effective monitoring and management of ever-changing marine resources. (Marine Policy, National Fisherman, The Barents Observer, The Barents Observer)