The Arctic This Week Take Five: Week of 21 October, 2024

Norway Proposes NATO Hub to Secure Undersea Infrastructure

High North News reported on October 23 that Norway has proposed establishing a NATO hub to protect critical undersea infrastructure in the High North, as part of a joint initiative with Germany. This regional hub would monitor critical infrastructure including energy pipelines and subsea cables. The initiative builds on NATO’s Maritime Centre for Security of Critical Undersea Infrastructure (CUI), founded earlier this year. Norway and Germany are proposing the creation of regional hubs under CUI for different maritime areas in NATO’s area of ​​responsibility, including the North Sea. (High North News)

Take 1: Norway’s proposal for a joint NATO hub to protect undersea infrastructure in the High North could significantly shape Arctic defense and international policy and strengthen NATO’s presence in the region. By focusing on critical undersea energy and communication lines in the North Sea, the hub aims to address growing vulnerabilities from cyberattacks and sabotage, particularly following recent incidents like the Nord Stream pipeline sabotage in 2022​. Other recent attacks have damaged undersea infrastructure in the Baltic Sea, including telecommunications cables between Sweden and Estonia and between Finland and Estonia. As Arctic sea routes open due to melting ice, the region is becoming more attractive for shipping, including energy transport, making it an increasingly strategic zone​. The proposal would enhance NATO’s capacity to safeguard critical infrastructure from Russian interference, as Russia has ramped up its military presence in the Arctic since invading Ukraine. These developments fit the broader trend of NATO prioritizing non-traditional threats—like hybrid warfare and infrastructure attacks—and also emphasizes NATO’s growing focus on its northern border and the Arctic region. However, while this hub bolsters Arctic security, it may increase geopolitical tensions. Russia has long viewed NATO’s expansion into the Arctic with suspicion, and new military infrastructure could provoke a response, escalating the militarization of the region. Furthermore, this could further strain Norway’s traditionally cooperative relations with Russia in the Arctic, as the security dynamics shift toward competition. Overall, the proposed hub is a proactive response to evolving threats but may also carry the risk of further militarizing the Arctic. (Center for Strategic and International Studies, High North News, NATO Media Centre, The Barents Observer)

China to Send Crewed Submersible to Arctic Seabed

As reported by the South China Morning Post on October 20, China plans to send a crewed submersible to the Arctic seabed, to be launched from the research vessel Tan Suo San Hao. Developed by the China State Shipbuilding Corporation, the project aims to support polar scientific research and deep-sea exploration using domestically-made technology. The submersible has undergone tests for underwater docking and low-temperature operations and is expected to start sea trials next year. (South China Morning Post)

Take 2: China’s plan to send a crewed submersible to the Arctic seabed signals a potential shift in Arctic geopolitics, intensifying competition between China and other Arctic powers. While China presents itself as a ‘near-Arctic state’ its growing presence raises concerns about its long-term strategic intentions, particularly regarding access to Arctic resources like oil, gas, and rare minerals. This deep-sea exploration mission challenges Russia’s dominance there, as Russia is the only other nation to have sent a crewed vessel to the Arctic seabed in 2007. The mission may also complicate Arctic cooperation efforts. Traditionally, Arctic states such as Russia, Canada, the US, and the Nordic nations have focused on regional cooperation through forums like the Arctic Council. China’s increasingly assertive stance could strain relations, especially since non-Arctic nations have typically been excluded from decision-making bodies focused on Arctic affairs. From a defense perspective, China’s technological advancements in polar research vessels and icebreakers may have multiple applications. The US and other Western nations view China’s growing Arctic presence with suspicion, given its potential military and strategic interests. As a result, the US and its allies have been advancing their own Arctic capabilities, including their joint icebreaker development program with Canada and Finland. NATO has also been increasingly focused on a defensive presence in the Arctic and the High North. China’s mission to the Arctic seabed not only highlights its growing technological capabilities in Arctic research, but also heightens competition in the region, creating challenges for international cooperation and raising concerns about militarization. (Center for Strategic and International Studies, Institute for Security & Development Policy, RAND, Wilson Center)

NATO to Work Together to Strengthen Satellite Coverage in the Arctic

The Globe and Mail reported on October 18 that thirteen NATO nations have agreed to enhance satellite coverage in the Arctic through a new satellite network called Northlink. This initiative, revealed at a NATO meeting in Brussels, aims to strengthen secure communication and navigation infrastructure in the region by leasing commercial satellite services or using ally capacities. The project signatories include the Arctic nations of Canada, the US, Finland, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, and Iceland, with plans to implement the system in the coming years. (The Globe and Mail)

Take 3: The decision by thirteen NATO countries to strengthen reliable satellite coverage in the Arctic through the Northlink project has significant implications for regional security. Northlink is one of five new multinational co-operative projects unveiled at this month’s meeting, and it shows NATO’s determination to work more closely on defense and deterrence, and to enhance its presence in the Arctic. As Arctic sea routes open and geopolitical tensions rise, particularly due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the presence of Russia’s Northern Fleet near Murmansk, the initiative addresses critical gaps in military-grade communication and navigation capabilities in the region. This improvement is vital for both civilian and military operations, ensuring better situational awareness in an area where Russia’s Northern Fleet operates, housing its nuclear submarine forces. NATO’s cooperation on this project demonstrates a unified approach to countering potential threats in the Arctic, where Russia’s presence has expanded significantly. The initiative marks a shift in NATO’s strategy, recognizing the Arctic as a zone of growing strategic importance, particularly in light of Russia’s enhanced Arctic military infrastructure and presence, including recent jamming attacks on satellites. Strengthened satellite coverage would allow NATO forces to operate more effectively, potentially deterring any aggressive action from Moscow. For Russia, this development could be seen as an escalation, challenging its long-standing dominance in the Arctic. Overall, the Northlink initiative boosts NATO’s Arctic capabilities and strengthens alliances, but it could also heighten geopolitical friction with Russia as the competition for influence in the Arctic intensifies. (Eye on the Arctic, NATO Media Centre, Network for Strategic Analysis, Politico)

Study Finds Polar Bears Experience Ice-Related Injuries Attributed to Climate Change

Phys.org reported on October 22 that polar bears in some parts of the High Arctic are experiencing ice-related paw injuries due to changing sea ice conditions that are linked to climate warming. A study led by the University of Washington and published in the journal Ecology documented injuries such as lacerations, hair loss, and ice build-up on the feet of adult polar bears in two populations. The ice build-up can cause difficulty in walking and has not been reported before. Researchers attribute this phenomenon to increased freeze-thaw cycles, rain-on-snow events, and environmental changes near glaciers. (Phys.org)

Take 4: The discovery of ice-related injuries in polar bears in two distinct bear populations due to changing sea ice conditions in the Arctic underscores the broader implications of climate change on Arctic ecosystems. These injuries, which include lacerations and ice build-up on the bears’ paws, are linked to increased freeze-thaw cyclesand rain-on-snow events caused by a warming climate. This is the first time such injuries have been documented in polar bears, and the research illustrates the wide-ranging impacts of climate change. For researchers, this new phenomenon highlights the need for continued monitoring of polar bear health as a key indicator of Arctic environmental shifts. Polar bears depend heavily on sea ice for hunting and migration. The injuries documented in the study—especially ice build-up—could hamper their ability to move across the ice and hunt, potentially impacting their overall fitness and survival. This research provides critical insight into how shifting climate patterns are influencing Arctic species in ways previously unobserved, contributing to broader discussions about ecosystem resilience and species adaptation. From a conservation perspective, these findings emphasize the urgency of addressing climate change impacts to preserve healthy and resilient polar bear populations. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions is paramount, as highlighted by the researchers, in order to mitigate further warming and protect these vulnerable populations. Additionally, this study reinforces the importance of long-term Arctic research to track and respond to new climate-related challenges facing both wildlife and ecosystems. (Ecology, UCAR Center for Science Education, University of Washington News)

Air Greenland, Icelandair Sign Codeshare Agreement to Improve Connections in the Arctic

As reported by Eye on the Arctic on October 23, Air Greenland and Icelandair have signed a codeshare agreement aimed at improving travel connections between Greenland, North America, and the Nordic region, effective next summer. The partnership, formalized at the Arctic Circle Assembly in Iceland, will simplify flight bookings and enhance air connectivity. Icelandair’s hub airport at Keflavík, Iceland, will serve as the key link to its vast North American network, particularly benefiting travelers between North America and Greenland, who will now be able to book all parts of their journey on a single ticket. (Eye on the Arctic)

Take 5: The Air Greenland-Icelandair codeshare agreement significantly enhances travel options in the Arctic, especially between Greenland and Nunavut. For Inuit travelers, this development offers more direct routes between the two regions, fostering easier cultural exchanges, family visits, and community interaction. Historically, the lack of direct flights made such travel prohibitively expensive and notoriously time-consuming, despite the geographic proximity between Nunavut and Greenland. This summer, Air Greenland and Canadian North also partnered up to provide a seasonal, weekly flight between Nunavut and Greenland. The codeshare agreement was coupled with Icelandair’s similar partnership with Atlantic Airways, aiming to improve connections to the Faroe Islands. For business and tourism, the agreement creates new opportunities by improving accessibility to formerly difficult to access areas. Easier connections could open up Greenland and Nunavut as attractive destinations for adventure tourism, and make travel throughout the Arctic significantly more accessible. This boost in Arctic and Nordic tourism would bring economic benefits to local communities, supporting sustainable development initiatives while offering travelers unique cultural and natural experiences in the region. Furthermore, the collaboration between Air Greenland, Icelandair, and Atlantic Airways demonstrates a broader strategy of regional cooperation that strengthens ties within the West Nordic and Arctic regions. It also emphasizes the importance of aviation for economic growth, expanding infrastructure, and promoting regional identity through tourism and business exchanges. These partnerships could serve as a model for future cooperation among Arctic nations, ensuring that the region’s communities remain connected and economically viable in the face of a changing climate and geopolitical challenges. (Air Greenland, Icelandair, Nunavut News)