The Arctic This Week Take Five: Week of 21 November, 2022
New Study Shows Alaska’s Deplorable Economic Performance
As reported by Anchorage Daily News (ADN) on November 18, research issued on Thursday by the University of Alaska Center for Economic Development shows that Alaska’s economy has consistently ranked lower than all other states over the past seven years. Alaska is the lowest-performing state in terms of four key indicators of economic health, including employment growth, unemployment rates, net migration, and gross domestic product (GDP). The relative decline of oil prices, according to the Center’s executive director and lead author Nolan Klouda, is likely the main factor influencing these indicators. (Anchorage Daily News)
Take 1: The main driver of Alaska’s economic growth is oil production. About half of its GDP and a significant number of jobs are supplied by this industry. In other words, Alaska’s economy would be half as large without oil. However, neither employment loss nor ongoing profitability in the form of royalties is assured in this sector. As Nolan Klouda said in his interview with ADN, there have still been significant job losses in oil and gas businesses. It is absolutely clear that the diversification of the state’s economy and funds allocation to initiatives that can draw brand-new investments to Alaska are needed. One option is alternative energy development, which nowadays mainly serves the locals as an energy savings source. Moreover, the rapidly changing Arctic has far-reaching implications not only for Alaska’s inhabitants but also for the economy and security. Consequently, Alaska, which is equipped with all the necessary resources, may be receptive to the development of clean blue and green energy sources. But it is also apparent that the state won’t be able to just end its reliance on oil cold turkey. Thus, a highly thought-out policy will be required. (AlaskaBusiness, Resource Development Council for Alaska, Urban Institute)
Nunavut Government and Nunavut Tunngavik Inc. Agree on Tuberculosis Data Exchange
As reported by Nunatsiaq News on November 21, the Government of Nunavut and Nunavut Tunngavik Incorporated (NTI) -the official spokesman for Canadian Nunavut’s Inuit in regard to native treaty rights and negotiations- signed a tuberculosis information sharing agreement on Monday. According to the treaty, the government will be responsible for data exchange on latent and active disease cases and notify NTI when local outbreaks occur. On its end, the NTI will provide updates on its National TB Elimination Action Plan to the territory’s authority and host an online public training course on tuberculosis. (Nunatsiaq News)
Take 2: Even though Canada has one of the lowest rates of active tuberculosis in the world, First Nations peoples, particularly Inuit, are nevertheless disproportionately affected by the disease. When compared to the Canadian average in 2020, the rate of active tuberculosis among Indigenous Peoples was the highest . According to a 2018 report from the Public Health Agency of Canada, the average yearly tuberculosis rate among Inuit was 290 times higher than among the non-Indigenous Canadian-born population. Acute home overcrowding, poverty, food insecurity, and a lack of access to healthcare are the main reasons behind the devastating TB outbreaks seen over the last few years. Until now, the release of data on illness cases has been a tense issue in Nunavut’s communities, where demands from Inuit leaders for more transparency have previously gone unacknowledged by Canada’s Department of Health. However, it appears that events have now entered a new phase with this new agreement, which denotes a favorable development in the battle against tuberculosis. But lowering tuberculosis rates in Indigenous communities is only an achievement in the short-term. Real progress entails addressing the socio-economic issues that have contributed to the spread of tuberculosis and that can be achieved only through complex, continuous, and multi-sectoral work. (CBC News, The Globe and Mail, The Guardian)
Nordic Military Cooperation: Finland, Norway and Sweden Sign Updated Agreement
As reported by High North News on November 23, the defense ministers of Finland, Norway, and Sweden met in Oslo, Norway, for a meeting of the Nordic Defence Cooperation (NORDEFCO), a military collaboration framework that also includes Denmark and Iceland. A revised statement of intent that prioritizes operations planning in the Cap of the North, the three nations’ regions located north of the Arctic Circle, was signed. It is expected to strengthen the countries’ capacity to operate jointly. (High North News)
Take 3: In the relatively non-hostile period following the Cold War, Nordic military capabilities became oriented on international activities overseas rather than on domestic national defense. National operational strategies thus became progressively out of date. The necessity for domestic military planning, however, was given significant consideration in the late 2000s and early 2010s, with the Russo-Georgian War in 2008 and the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014 alarming wake-up calls. Now, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has altered the Arctic security environment, leading both Sweden and Finland to submit NATO membership applications and enhance military cooperation within the Alliance and NORDEFCO. The new NORDEFCO agreement shows that this process is only continuing to gain momentum. However, why the focus on the so-called Cap of the North? Due to its proximity to the heavily militarized Russian Kola Peninsula, the area’s security may be quickly jeopardized amid potential military conflict. Moreover, operational capabilities will be extremely difficult considering the comparatively small and dispersed ground troops located in the vast and largely uninhabited northern areas. Therefore, operational plans and coordination between air and ground forces may very well become crucial. (Arctic Review on Law and Politics, High North News, The Barents Observer)
Southeast Greenland’s Marine Ecosystem to Enter New Regime
As reported by Eye on the Arctic on November 21, a newly published study in Global Change Biology shows that Southeast Greenland’s marine ecosystem may have reached a critical turning point and transitioned to a new ecological regime. The study was led by the Greenland Institute of Natural Resources with the support of researchers from Iceland and the U.S, and analyzed changes in the climate, physical oceanography and ecology of the region. The team concluded that the ecology of the region’s seas is being altered by the increasingly warm and ice-free conditions, which is causing the expansion of large mobile predator species into new areas. (Eye on the Arctic)
Take 4: Indirect warnings about possible imminent changes to Southeast Greenland’s marine ecosystem have already been present since the middle of the 1990s, when the first changes to the region’s local climate and ice cover started to be observed. Years later in 2018, a study showed that the rising ocean temperatures and abnormally warm shelf waters had begun to affect the stability of the Kangerdluqssuaq Glacier located in the region. The mixture of sea ice and icebergs known as mélange, which had previously been rigid enough to prevent calving in winter, started to weaken, driving the rapid retreat of the glacier inland. And now, based on recent research, we can conclude that a new state with open sea in the summer has been attained. Formerly typical conditions with significant summer drift-ice and cold temperatures are no longer maintained. Species, especially large predators, that were not previously common in Southeast Greenland will be able to increase their range and occupy new habitats. These changes are likely to have both direct and indirect effects on other endemic species as well as on the connection between biodiversity and food chain processes. (ICES, Nature)
Russia Launches New Nuclear-Powered Icebreaker
As reported by The Barents Observer on November 23, in a ceremony on Tuesday, the Russian flag was flown aboard the brand-new heavy-duty icebreaker Ural, signifying its readiness for operations. Igor Sechin, the head of Rosneft, the world’s largest publicly traded petroleum company, is anticipated to receive the ship and employ it for the Vostok Oil project. The second nuclear-powered vessel of the same class, Yakutia, was also launched at the same location, the Baltic Shipyard in St. Petersburg. (The Barents Observer)
Take 5: While some of Russia’s Arctic oil and gas ambitious projects, such as Novatek’s Arctic LNG 2, were halted due to western sanctions, other projects are still moving forward. The substantial Vostok Oil project is a notable example. As Europe attempts to rid itself of Russian hydrocarbons, Russia’s cargo flows of oil and gas will likely be channeled east instead via the Northern Sea Route (NSR). A capable and reliable icebreaking fleet is therefore essential in ensuring a continuous year-round supply to customers in Asia, especially to the Chinese market. Russia has already successfully completed the second-ever voyage of a crude oil ship across the Arctic Circle with the terminal destination in the Chinese port of Rizhao. The regular escort of oil and gas tankers along the NSR is quickly becoming a reality, and the navigational ice-free season duration is only set to increase. A rapidly growing number of vessels are already running along the Route. However, this year, they are almost entirely of Russian origin. It seems that the NSR can become a maritime path monopolistically used by Russia. But as market access restrictions and technological bans potentially jeopardize Russia’s ambitious plans, the question of financing and securing spare parts for the new fleet will also start to emerge. (High North News, The Barents Observer)