The Arctic This Week Take Five: Week of 20 May, 2024
Russia Claims Research Vessel North Pole Investigates Climate Change
As reported by The Barents Observer on May 23, the Russian research vessel Severny Polyus made a port call in Murmansk on May 17 after a 20-month expedition in the Arctic. Researchers onboard the vessel collected a range of data aimed at understanding climatic changes and improving the safety of shipping on the Northern Sea Route. However, the research vessel, with a crew of 16 and a research team of 34, can also be used to map the seabed and underwater infrastructure. The vessel is operated by Russia’s meteorological service and its captain, Sergei Nesterov, has experience in Arctic and Antarctic waters. (The Barents Observer)
Take 1: The mission of the Severny Polyus is to conduct geological, acoustic, geophysical, and marine research to enable future exploitation of natural resources in the Arctic and to facilitate an increase in trans-Arctic shipping along the Northern Sea Route. Yet, Russia will also use the data collected to support its claims on the Arctic shelf, and the vessel has capabilities to engage in reconnaissance and intelligence-gathering activities. During its journey, the Severny Polyus covered over 3,000 nautical miles from the East Siberian Sea to the Greenland Sea. Before docking in Murmansk, the vessel spent time near Svalbard in April and May including several days in the waters around Bear Island. Given the current state of relations between Russia and the other seven Arctic states, which are all in NATO, tracking and reporting on the work of vessels like the Severny Polyus is increasingly important. The Russian government has clearly articulated in its Maritime Doctrine, updated in July 2022, that it plans to employ civilian ships and infrastructure for military purposes and to expand its Arctic presence. This includes trawlers and fishing vessels currently operating in the vicinity of Svalbard as well as more specialized research vessels like the Severny Polyus. While the Arctic remains peaceful today, Russia’s Maritime Doctrine will guide operations in its hybrid war against “the West” and emphasizes the dual-use risk of civilian vessels. Thus, the Severny Polyus is an important capability operating across the Arctic in support of that war. (Arctic Today, CIMSEC, The Barents Observer, The Barents Observer, The Washington Post)
Russia Announces New Commander for Leningrad Military District
The Barents Observer reported on May 16 that Colonel-General Aleksandr Lapin was appointed as the Commander of Russia’s Leningrad Military District, responsible for all of Northwest Russia, including St. Petersburg, Murmansk, Arkhangelsk, and Russia’s Northern Fleet. Lapin’s previous assignments include Chief of Staff of the Russian Ground Forces and Commander of the Central Military District. He has served in Syria and Ukraine. (The Barents Observer)
Take 2: The appointment of Colonel-General Lapin is part of a recent leadership reshuffling that coincides with the beginning of Vladimir Putin’s fifth term and the transformation of Russia’s economy to support a long-term war in Ukraine. Putin regularly rotates officials and military commanders based on his objectives and the internal politics of his regime. Lapin’s appointment to command the Leningrad Military District follows the more significant appointment of Andrey Belousov as Defense Minister on May 12. Belousov, a civilian economist, replaces Putin’s close ally Sergei Shoigu who served as Defense Minister for 12 years. In conjunction with these recent leadership changes, Putin has indicated his intent to prioritize improving Russia’s defense industrial base. The poor performance of the Russian military in Ukraine and the recognition that the war will continue for several years is the impetus for this new focus. Colonel-General Lapin’s appointment is noteworthy because he will implement Russia’s defense reforms in the Arctic. Under Lapin’s command is Russia’s Northern Fleet which is responsible for protecting Russian military assets on the Kola Peninsula including a significant portion of their strategic nuclear capability. Late last year, the Russian military started restructuring their military districts in response to Finland and Sweden joining NATO. The previous Western Military District was separated into the Moscow Military District and the Leningrad Military District, with the Northern Fleet subordinated to the Leningrad Military District. As the Arctic’s environment and geopolitics continue to change, Lapin’s assignment will be challenging as he tries to operationalize Putin’s intent. (CNN, CSIS, TASS, The Barents Observer, The Barents Observer)
Finland to Consider Rail Network Transition to European Gauge
High North News reported on May 22 that Finland is investigating options to change their railway network to the standard European track gauge to improve connectivity between Norbotten in Sweden and Northern Norway via Narvik Finnish Minister of Transport, Lulu Ranne, announced the initiative on the sidelines of the NATO transport meeting held this week in Tampere, Finland. She said the first connection would be to Haparanda, Sweden. The transition requires an examination of technology, costs, and timeframe. Standardized rail gauge from Finnish Lapland to the Arctic Regions of Sweden and Norway will serve civilian and military purposes. (High North News)
Take 3: Transitioning Finland’s rail network to European standard track gauge is costly, but necessary. In 2022, the European Commission proposed this change, but the idea was rejected due to financial and operational feasibility concerns. The European Commission has indicated its intent for all member states to switch to the standard European track gauge which is 1435 millimeters, compared to Finland’s 1524 millimeter tracks. Other EU countries with different gauges include Ireland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Portugal, and Spain. Standardizing rail networks is an important step to improve the operational mobility of the NATO alliance as it enables interoperability. It lends to more efficient use of resources and enhances operational effectiveness. NATO has been working to improve mobility in recent years and with the addition of Finland and Sweden there is new work to be done. Military mobility is complicated by legal and diplomatic factors as well as the condition of physical infrastructure. Improving mobility is one of the aims of exercises like the Immediate Response 24 which is being held this month across Norway, Sweden, and Finland. During the exercise, NATO forces are testing their ability to move using the already existing port, rail, and road infrastructure in the region. While infrastructure investments are costly, they provide economic benefits beyond military purposes. Exploring the opportunity to improve the rail links from Finland to Norrbotten in Sweden and Narvik in Norway is a worthy initiative. (Atlantic Council, High North News, NATO, Transport Online, Yle, Yle)
Walrus Counts Validated with Mixed Technologies
Eye of the Arctic reported on May 22 about a project in Svalbard that employed drones and on-the-ground visual observations to validate walrus population estimates gathered by satellite imagery. Launched in 2021 by the British Antarctic Survey (BAS) and the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) the project intended to enable semi-real-time monitoring of walrus populations in remote and difficult-to-reach regions by experts and citizen scientists. The results were published on May 22 in Remote Sensing Ecology and Conservation. (Eye on the Arctic)
Take 4: The combined use of satellite imagery, drones, and on-the-ground human observers to ascertain walrus counts in the Svalbard archipelago demonstrates the power of synchronizing technologies for scientific research. Walruses rely on sea ice for resting, giving birth, and as platforms to dive for food such as starfish, mollusks, and sea cucumbers. As sea ice melts and human activity increases in the Arctic, walruses are forced to adapt. Therefore, scientists need to be able to track and monitor the health of walrus populations spread over large areas. Satellites and drones are powerful tools to enable this work, especially when they are employed in a synchronized fashion. In this case, the satellites generated Very High Resolution (VHR) imagery with three spatial resolutions of 15cm, 30cm, and 50cm. These images were analyzed to focus drone deployments to confirm the accuracy of walrus counts derived from the satellite imagery. The 30cm resolution proved to be the most accurate. While this case is an example of the positive benefits of drone technologies for scientific research, it is important to recognize that a technology like drones can serve multiple aims. The technologies and techniques used for this project have been standard practice for many militaries for decades. They have been repurposed here to enable science, but it also works the other way around. The ease with which technologies can be repurposed to serve military or civilian aims means that international agreements like the Svalbard Treaty are potentially open gates for hostile actors to deliver a trojan horse. (Eye on the Arctic, Zoological Society of London)
Norway-Russia Border to Be Closed for Tourists and Shoppers
As reported by The Barents Observer on May 23, the Norwegian government announced it will close its border to Russian tourists and shoppers as of May 29. Since September 2022, the Storskog border crossing, located 15 kilometres from the town of Kirkenes, , has been the only access point for Russian citizens to enter the Schengen-Europe zone for shopping and vacation travel. Exceptions to the new restrictions will be granted for Russians crossing to visit close relatives or to work and study in Norway or other Schengen countries. (The Barents Observer)
Take 5: Border policy decisions are difficult because restrictions disrupt the lives of regular people. However, the current state of relations between Russia and Europe demands such action. The new restrictions announced by the Norwegian Ministry of Justice and Public Security are unsurprising and follow decisions by Poland, the Baltic States, and Finland, who closed their borders for non-essential travel shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. Vladimir Putin has made it clear that he intends to continue his war on Ukraine for as long as it takes and he is re-organizing the Russian economy to support that war and potential future actions against other European states. In the meantime, Russia will continue attacking Europe through asymmetric means. Espionage, sabotage, subversion, and information operations are elements of Russia’s strategy to destabilize the continent. Consistent with this assessment, The Barents Observer published a detailed report on May 20 about Russian covert operations designed to cultivate partners in Norway through the auspices of the Russian Geographical Society. The Storskog border crossing has been an important point of entry for Russian operatives to enter the Schengen zone. Russia is increasing its asymmetric attacks across Europe to sow fear and influence civilian populations. They will likely use border restrictions like those announced this week as part of their information war to garner sympathy from those affected, but they are necessary security measures nonetheless. (The Barents Observer, The Barents Observer)