The Arctic This Week Take Five: Week of 18 March, 2024
New EU Office in Nuuk Opens
As reported by High North News on March 15, the European Union has just opened an office in Nuuk, the capital of Greenland. The Prime Minister of Greenland, Múte B. Egede, and the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, opened the new office, which is meant to focus on shared goals in education, climate, and critical materials. (High North News)
Take 1: The opening of an EU office in Greenland is a testament to the EU’s focus on the Arctic and the importance of Greenland to the EU’s Arctic strategy. In its updated Arctic policy, published in 2021, the EU emphasizes its priorities in the Arctic, such as sustainable development, improving resilience to climate change, reducing emissions, fighting pollution, and preserving permafrost. The EU currently funds 21 scientific polar projects, but the region also carries geopolitical importance. Preserving the Arctic as a peaceful area—which requires multilateral cooperation—is a serious concern for the EU. The EU has also engaged in the Northern Dimension, a joint policy promoting partnerships between the EU, Russia, Norway, and Iceland focusing on the environment, public health, transportation, and culture. However, after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the EU paused all activities of the Northern Dimension involving Russia or Belarus (Belarus has been one of the policy’s observer states). Differing from Denmark, Greenland is not a member state of the EU, but it has cooperated with it on various key policy issues (including sustainable fisheries) and has access to the EU market. Greenland is also one of the largest recipients per capita of EU support. The opening of the EU office in Nuuk—first announced in fall 2021—shows that the EU considers Greenland a strategic partner and that it is looking to strengthen their partnership. It also signals the EU’s growing presence in the Arctic. (European External Action Service, Greenlandic Broadcasting Corporation, High North News, High North News)
Finland Wants Stricter Border Control on Border with Russia
High North News reported on March 15 that Finland’s Prime Minister, Petteri Orpo, and Minister of the Interior, Mari Rantanen, have revealed a new government proposal for stricter border entry regulations on its eastern border, which includes a section in Sápmi, above the Arctic Circle. The objective of the proposal is to increase the power of border authorities to return asylum seekers to Russia. The proposed law would include exceptions for children or people with disabilities, but would otherwise enable border authorities to return asylum seekers along the eastern border, particularly to Russia. (High North News)
Take 2: The news of Finland’s proposed law for tougher borders highlights the country’s anxiety over border security and the ability of border authorities to remove asylum seekers crossing Finland’s eastern border. PM Orpo has mentioned that he believes the situation will get more difficult in the spring, echoing a concern previously voiced by the Border Guard. Finland’s eastern border has been almost entirely closed to passenger traffic since last fall due to the alleged instrumentalization of migrants by Russia. This has included the northernmost border crossing, Raja-Jooseppi in Inari, Sápmi, which is located above the Arctic Circle. The proposed bill would enable border authorities to immediately and without merit review return asylum seekers to Russia. The law would include exceptions for particularly vulnerable individuals, including children and people with disabilities, and would only be in effect for limited periods at parts of the border. It remains unclear, however, how such a blanket provision could comply with international treaties of which Finland is a signatory. Article 14 of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights grants everyone the right to seek asylum. In addition, the 1951 Refugee Convention asserts that asylum seekers should not be returned to a country where their life or freedom may be endangered. This proposal is currently being circulated for expert opinions, but, in addition to the challenges of enforcing border control in the Arctic, the Finnish government will need to align the bill with international treaties or, potentially force passage regardless of their violation. (Finnish Border Guard, High North News, Yle News, Yle News)
NASA Research Finds the Arctic is Becoming Rainier
On March 19, the NASA Earth Observatory reported on new research published in The Journal of Climate, in which NASA scientists found an increased frequency of rainy days over the Arctic and North Atlantic oceans. Studying rainfall trends from 1980 to 2016, the scientists noted that the annual rainy season was also getting longer. The North Atlantic saw the greatest increase: an average of five more days per decade, while the Arctic saw two more days per decade. (NASA Earth Observatory)
Take 3: The new NASA study shows that the Arctic has seen profound environmental changes in the last few decades. Due to the impacts of global warming, the Arctic has been warming much faster than the rest of the world: a recent study, examining almost the same period as the NASA rainfall study, found that it has warmed four times faster. As the authors of the NASA study point out, the faster warming of the Arctic also brings about more rain precipitation than before. This is confirmed in their research, which shows that the number of rainfall days has increased over the studied period, as has the length of the rainy season. This is positively correlated with the number of days above freezing and a longer warm season. Rain used to be rare in the Arctic, but has become increasingly more frequent with rising temperatures. Even a minor increase in rain frequency and intensity is expected to trigger significant ice loss, floods, slush avalanches, and landslides. Recent rain and rain-on-snow events in the Arctic have been linked to declining numbers of caribou, moose, muskoxen, and other animals that are essential food sources for Arctic hunters. It is becoming clear that the Arctic is seeing the most significant impacts of global warming, and also that global climate change research must be informed by environmental changes taking place in the Arctic. (Communications Earth & Environment, Journal of Climate, Yale Environment)
Russia’s Northern Fleet Gets a New Commander
The Barents Observer reported on March 15 that Admiral Konstantin Kabantsov is likely to be appointed the new Head Commander of Russia’s Northern Fleet, headquartered in Severomorsk near Murmansk and mainly responsible for Russia’s naval operations in the High North. Kabantsov, who has served on the Northern Fleet’s submarines since the 1990s, is currently the First Deputy Commander of the Fleet. Kabantsov would be replacing Admiral Aleksandr Moiseev, who was appointed Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Navy earlier this month. (The Barents Observer)
Take 4: The news of top personnel changes in the Russian Navy comes at a critical time for Russia’s security. Russia has been concentrating its military resources in Ukraine and Arctic tensions have increased with the accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO. Russia’s Northern Fleet is arguably the most important of its five fleets, consisting of around 25 submarines and 20 surface vessels, along with air and land capabilities. With its nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines, it is also one of the two fleets responsible for nuclear deterrence. Russia’s foreign policy has recently increasingly prioritized the Arctic as a site of posturing and to project Russian sovereignty. The increasing militarization of the Arctic, along with the potential for naval conflict between Russia and NATO, make the Northern Fleet Russia’s key operational resource. Russia also seems concerned about the possibility of a Ukrainian attack in the Arctic, as a recent exercise in Severomorsk (the base of the Northern Fleet), made clear. In this training scenario, the base was attacked by enemy drones, such as could be employed by Ukrainian sabotage groups. The fact that the outgoing Commander of the Northern Fleet has become the Commander-in-Chief of the Navy as a whole is a testament to the privileged position of the Fleet, and to the level of trust the Kremlin has in its command. Any top personnel changes, such as Kabantsov replacing Moiseev as Head Commander, can be seen to reflect Russia’s military goals and priorities in the Arctic theatre. (High North News, Network for Strategic Analysis, The Barents Observer, The Barents Observer)
Arctic Winter Games Consider Changes to Cut Costs
As reported by the CBC on March 16, the Arctic Winter Games (AWG) international committee is currently undergoing a review of possible changes to lower the costs of hosting the games. These include the prospect of moving the games to a three-year cycle, instead of its current biannual cycle and revising the number of age groups or participants per sport. An external organization, Sport for Life, will review the AWG and provide a report in the summer to make the games more sustainable and less costly. (CBC)
Take 5: The news that the AWG international committee is reviewing possible changes follows last year’s decision by the city of Yellowknife, NWT, not to host the 2026 games due to the high costs. The AWG is a circumpolar sports competition that has taken place since 1970 and includes both athletic disciplines and cultural performances. This year’s AWG has recently concluded in Mat-Su Valley, Alaska. In addition to conventional sports disciplines, the AWG also includes Dene and Inuit sports such as the Head Pull and the High Kick. The AWG’s mission is to promote athletic competition, cultural performance, and social exchange across the Arctic, and it has hosted youth and adult participants from the Canadian Arctic, Alaska, Sápmi, Russia, and Greenland. It has encouraged the preservation of Arctic sports and cultural traditions and created a positive environment for youth to learn and share their culture. In recent years, the costs of hosting the AWG have exceeded $10 million CAD. Thus, the long-term sustainability of the games will require the involvement of multiple stakeholders, such as the host city, provincial or state governments, and private businesses. Even with the potential for additional tourism revenue, the AWG requires significant public financial support, and efforts need to be made to create a more sustainable model of the event to ensure it can continue to build and strengthen connections across the Arctic. (Arctic Winter Games, CBC)