The Arctic This Week Take Five: Week of 14 August, 2023
Scientists Warn of Arctic Cod Decline
As reported by the Vancouver Sun on August 15, a consortium of 43 scientists from 26 institutions has published a study in Elementa warning of a decline in Arctic cod due to climate change. After reviewing 395 scientific papers published since 1954, the researchers found that rising ocean temperatures are contributing to habitat loss, disrupted reproduction, and reduced food availability for the species.The consortium concluded that urgent action is needed to mitigate the impacts on the Arctic cod population. (Vancouver Sun)
Take 1: Arctic cod is one of the most abundant fish in the Arctic Ocean and can be found throughout the region’s freezing waters. However, the species is facing numerous threats due to climate change. While Arctic cod inhabits a variety of habitats, it is also known to specifically reside under pack ice, which provides an important source of shelter for the fish. But with the Arctic warming more than four times faster than the rest of the world, disappearing sea ice has reduced this essential habitat and heightened the species’ vulnerability to predators. Studies have also found that changes in sea ice could lead to smaller and less nutritious zooplankton, the main food source for young Cod. Moreover, rising ocean temperatures could lead to increased competition from fish that typically reside in the warmer North Atlantic and northern Pacific oceans. These multifaceted pressures are highly concerning, as Arctic cod is a keystone species in the region, serving as a critical high-energy food source for seabirds, seals, whales, and other large Arctic mammals, as well as Indigenous communities. A decline in Arctic cod could cascade through the Arctic food web, drastically altering the ecosystem. This crucial warning from 43 scientists should compel the international community to take immediate measures to preserve the species and all that depend on it. (Institute of Marine Research, NOAA, Ocean Conservancy)
Ice, Danger, and Delays: The Uncertain Future of the Northern Sea Route
As reported by The Barents Observer on August 11, Russian oil tankers Primorsky Prospect and NS Arctic have been seriously delayed by sea ice in the East Siberian Sea, part of the Northern Sea Route. The sudden emergence of pack ice may have been due to wind or other changes in weather conditions. The two ships, carrying a total of more than 200,000 tons of crude oil destined for China, do not appear to be in imminent danger. The arrival of the nuclear icebreaker Taymar has allowed the tankers to resume their journey as a convoy. (The Barents Observer)
Take 2: Once again, unexpected ice has disrupted vessels sailing through the Northern Sea Route (NSR). Despite warming temperatures and melting sea ice, shipping through the passage remains dangerous, as conditions can change rapidly.. This was starkly demonstrated in 2021 when an early freeze along the NSR left more than 20 ships stuck in sea ice. However, receding sea ice may also come with its own challenges. A recent study found that as ice disappears due to climate change, the Arctic Ocean has been getting foggier, reducing visibility and raising the potential for disastrous accidents, like oil spills. Therefore, with or without ice, the difficult operating conditions can lead to costly delays, undermining the NSR’s main advantage of being shorter than alternative routes. These continued issues, along with harsh weather, logistical challenges, the lack of infrastructure, and environmental concerns, all raise questions about the reliability, safety, and long-term economic viability of the passage. With Russia identifying the NSR as a critical state priority and investing heavily in transforming the route into a competitive maritime corridor, low demand for the passage could have serious consequences. As the Arctic continues to change, the situation of the Primorsky Prospect and NS Arctic serves as yet another warning of the dangers of Arctic shipping, which may further deter interest in the NSR. (Harvard International Review, High North News, Polar Journal)
New Study Highlights AMAP’s Crucial Role in Combating Arctic Pollution
As reported by Phys.org on August 11, a new article published in Environmental Science and Ecotechnology has assessed the scientific and political cooperation on environmental pollution in the Arctic, with a particular focus on the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP). The paper found that AMAP’s scientific research and data were instrumental in establishing international chemical regulations, such as the UN Stockholm Convention on Persistent Organic Pollutants and the UN Minamata Convention on Mercury. Continued monitoring has indicated that these agreements have not only reduced persistent organic pollutants and mercury levels in the Arctic but also have had a global impact. (Phys.org)
Take 3: Despite its remoteness, pollution is a critical issue for the Arctic due to the long-range transport of pollutants from around the world, like persistent organic pollutants (POPs) and plastics. POPs, toxic chemicals which resist degradation, are especially dangerous to the Arctic ecosystem because they do not break down in the environment. As a result, POPs can persist for immense periods of time and travel vast distances through the wind, water, and food cycles to accumulate in the Arctic. These chemicals can have serious consequences for wildlife and human health, including adverse effects on reproduction, development, and the immune system. Despite these dangers, POPs are widely used in a variety of common products, from packaging to detergents. Similarly, large amounts of plastic debris have made their way to the Arctic, with the region recording some of the highest concentrations of microplastics globally. Scientists have observed plastic particles in numerous species, including seabirds, fish, and even algae, the foundation of the Arctic marine food chain. The Arctic also faces environmental threats from mercury, radioactivity, oil, acidification, and more. However, as the article highlights, AMAP’s research has successfully led to the development of vital regulations and agreements in the past. Drawing on this experience, countries should continue to support and utilize the organization’s scientific-based policy advice to combat the global sources of pollution threatening the Arctic. (Nature, Norwegian Polar Institute, The Arctic Council, The Arctic Institute)
Start of an Arctic Air Operations Center for NATO?
As reported by High North News on August 17, the Chief of the Norwegian Air Force has announced that Norway has initiated a proposal for an Arctic air operations center within NATO. The proposed center would control air missions for the region and could include representatives from the Nordic, US, UK, and Canadian Air Forces. The Air Force Chief stated that the proposal has broad support from allies and that the center could potentially contain around 200 to 300 personnel. The development of an Arctic air operations center is still in the initial stages of discussion. (High North News)
Take 4: The announcement of a potential Arctic air operations center highlights NATO’s growing focus on the region. The proposal builds on a recent declaration by the Swedish, Norwegian, Finnish, and Danish air forces to establish a unified Nordic air defense. An Arctic air operations center could expand this joint initiative beyond the Nordic region, incorporating the air forces of other NATO members active in the Arctic to improve interoperability, training, and planning. These actions, aimed at enhancing NATO’s Arctic capabilities, also draw attention to the potential for a dedicated Arctic Command. Although there are no official plans to develop an Arctic Command, NATO has worked to bolster its presence in the region in recent years. In response to Russia’s increasing militarization and China’s expanding activity in the region, NATO has conducted several major Arctic exercises, including Cold Response 2022 and Arctic Challenge 2023. It has also identified the deepening partnership between Russia and China as a strategic challenge to the values and interests of the alliance. As geopolitical competition increases in the High North, an Arctic Command could coordinate military operations, enhance domain awareness, build knowledge of cold-weather capabilities, and signal a unified Arctic strategy.Nevertheless, the proposal for an Arctic air operations center and further discussions demonstrate that NATO is invested in the future of the High North. (Atlantic Council, Foreign Policy, The Arctic Institute)
NASA Announces Launch Service Provider for PREFIRE Mission
As reported by Space News on August 15, NASA has selected US aerospace manufacturer Rocket Lab to provide launch services for its Polar Radiant Energy in the Far-InfraRed Experiment (PREFIRE) mission. The PREFIRE mission aims to monitor energy entering and leaving Earth’s polar regions and will consist of two CubeSats, which are square-shaped miniature satellites. Rocket Lab also announced that it intends to launch the satellites individually in May 2024. (Space News)
Take 5: Earth’s climate is determined by the flow of energy to and from the planet. In effect, all of this energy comes from the Sun. While some of the energy from sunshine is reflected back into space by clouds, dust, and snow, most is absorbed by the atmosphere and the surface, especially in the tropics. As the absorbed sunlight warms the Earth, atmospheric and oceanic circulations redistribute solar heat from the equator toward the poles and emit the energy back into space. Thus, the Arctic has a vital role in regulating the climate, effectively venting excess energy. This balance between incoming and outgoing energy is known as Earth’s energy budget. At equilibrium, global temperatures remain relatively stable. However, climate research, including the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report, has determined that the energy budget is out of balance. Specifically, the amount of energy coming in is higher than the energy going out, leading to global warming. As temperatures continue to rise, studying the energy budget is essential to addressing and predicting the impacts of climate change. By monitoring the energy entering and leaving Earth from the Arctic, the PREFIRE mission will provide a more accurate understanding of the Arctic energy budget and fill critical gaps in the data. With the Arctic and the rest of the world rapidly warming, this information has never been more crucial. (NASA, The Conversation, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, University of Wisconsin-Madison)