The Arctic This Week Take Five: Week of 1 April, 2024
New Research: Arctic Sea Ice Loss Intensify El Niño Events
As reported by Phys.org on April 1, a new study published in Science Advances found that melting Arctic sea ice could strengthen El Niño events, a climate phenomenon characterized by unusually warm ocean temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. Examining climate models and observational data, the team of researchers, from the University at Albany and Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, noted that Arctic sea ice currently reduces the strength of El Niño events by up to 17 percent. The scientists concluded that as sea ice declines, this interaction could weaken, amplifying El Niño. (Phys.org)
Take 1: The findings that melting Arctic sea ice could strengthen El Niño events are concerning, identifying another consequence of the rapidly changing region. El Niño events occur naturally every two to seven years, on average, with episodes typically lasting nine to 12 months. During that time, tropical Pacific winds that usually expose cold water relax, allowing warmer water to build up in the Pacific Ocean. These warmer-than-normal waters can significantly influence the global climate, amplifying extreme weather events and intensifying natural hazards. For instance, in 2023, climate change intersected with a strong El Niño to drive extreme heat, unprecedented rainfall, and severe storms. In addition to direct harm, these hazards can trigger other crises, as seen in southern Africa, where an El Niño-linked drought has threatened energy and food supplies. The new study indicates that the interaction between Arctic sea ice and the air has a crucial role in regulating El Niño activity by facilitating the exchange of heat between the ocean and the atmosphere. However, as sea ice continues to decline due to climate change, stronger El Niño events would further intensify climate hazards, threatening livelihoods, food and water security, and global stability. Therefore, despite its remoteness, this new research demonstrates the critical importance of the Arctic for the global ecosystem and its broader impact on regions around the world. (NOAA, Scientific American, Sky News, World Weather Attribution)
Norway Announces Plans for Long-Range Drones at Andøya Air Station
As reported by High North News on April 4, the Norwegian government announced a proposal to expand Andøya Air Station as a base for long-range drones for maritime surveillance in the High North, reversing its previous decision to shut down the base. The government stated that it would acquire new long-range surveillance drones, developing the capacity for continuous situational awareness to support total defense and incident management during natural disasters or search and rescue operations. (High North News)
Take 2: As climate change continues to drive new challenges in the Arctic, maritime surveillance in the region has become increasingly important. Given the vastness of the Arctic, drones have a unique capacity to address gaps in surveillance and can support a variety of operations. As announced, the proposed drones based at Andøya would primarily provide sea surveillance for the Armed Forces. Strengthening this capability in the High North is critical as Russia has invested heavily in its maritime forces in recent years, expanded its patrols in the Arctic and North Sea, and conducted numerous exercises in the region. Beyond military uses, long-range drones can also assist with search and rescue operations and the management of illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing. With Arctic sea ice declining, maritime shipping has increased as the region becomes more accessible. Yet, more ship traffic also raises the potential for accidents. Drones would be useful for identifying and reaching incidents quickly to assess the situation. At the same time, climate change is shifting the ranges of many fish populations, pushing new fish stocks into the Arctic and driving existing species further north. While these shifts create opportunities for IUU fishers, drones could help authorities monitor fishing activity over great distances. Thus, investing in long-range drones would strengthen Norway’s capabilities and provide another tool to respond to the Arctic’s challenges. (Arctic Council, CSIS, Ocean Futures, Pew)
Canada and Alaska Sign Seven Year Fishing Moratorium of Chinook Salmon
As reported by CBC News on April 4, Canada and the State of Alaska have agreed to implement a seven-year moratorium on the fishing of Yukon River Chinook salmon to help the species’ population recover. The fishing suspension will include commercial and recreational fishing in the Yukon River and its Canadian tributaries. The agreement, signed by representatives from Fisheries and Oceans Canada and the Alaska Department of Fish and Game, sets a target of 71,000 Canadian-origin fish reaching their spawning grounds by 2031. (CBC News)
Take 3: The agreement to suspend the fishing of Yukon River Chinook salmon is a critical step to preserve the species as the population continues to decline. Yet, the decision comes after fishing has already been suspended several times in the last few years due to record-low salmon runs. For example, in 2023, authorities implemented fishing closures when only 14,752 salmon reached Canada, far less than Canada’s minimum goal of 42,500. The continual decline in salmon populations is worrisome as salmon is vital for the ecology of the Yukon Watershed. In addition, salmon is part of the cultural fabric of many Indigenous peoples in the region and serves as a critical food source for subsistence communities. The loss of Chinook salmon is a severe risk to the food security of these communities, but it also threatens generations of traditional practices around salmon harvests. While the moratorium on fishing aims to help the salmon population recover, the consequences on these local communities could be severe. Prior restrictions on subsistence fishing have already resulted in significant hardship as fishing is the primary economic activity for many communities and under the agreement, harvesting salmon for ceremonial use may also be limited. Therefore, as governments work to conserve the species, they must engage with Indigenous peoples to better support communities and preserve cultural knowledge around salmon during this time. (Alaska Public Media, CBC News, NOAA, UC Davis Climate Adaptation Research Center)
IMO Approves Proposal for New Emission Control Area in Canadian Arctic Waters
As reported by High North News on April 02, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) has approved a proposal by Canada to establish a new Emission Control Area (ECA) in Canadian Arctic waters, alongside a similar proposal for the Norwegian Sea by Norway. Set to be adopted by the IMO in October and expected to come into force by March 2026, the ECAs aim to reduce emissions of air pollutants from shipping, including sulfur oxides (SOx), particulate matter, and nitrogen oxides (NOx). The regulations will require vessels operating in these areas to use fuel with a maximum sulfur content of 0.1% or employ the use of mitigating technologies such as Exhaust Gas Cleaning Systems (EGCS). (High North News)
Take 4: The move to establish an ECA in the Canadian Arctic is a significant victory for environmental and indigenous groups, who have long argued that the region, despite its increased sensitivity to pollution and climate change, lacked equitable protections compared to other regions. This development addresses a long-standing disparity in environmental protection between the north of Canada and its more southerly counterparts, shedding light on what has been described as a “glaring gap in social equality”. In 2010, concerns about the harmful health effects of ship emissions on port and populated coastal areas led to Canada and the US designating the North American Emission Control Area (NAECA). However, due to the perception of insignificant population impacts, the NAECA’s jurisdiction was not extended beyond 60 degrees north. This omission left Canada’s Arctic communities unprotected, even as climate change caused a dramatic increase in ship traffic and associated emissions in their waters. The new regulations promise to level the playing field, finally offering northern communities and wildlife the same clean air standards as other Canadian marine regions. However, this progress does not come without its challenges. The potential increase in operational costs for shipping, driven by the shift to cleaner fuels and technologies, raises concerns about economic impacts on already financially strained and isolated communities. The success of the ECA will depend on careful implementation and a commitment to ensuring that efforts to protect the environment do not come at an undue social cost to the communities that call the Arctic home. (Clear Seas, Springer Link, WWF)
Mild Winter Disrupts Ice Road to Canada’s Arctic diamond mines
As reported by Reuters on March 30, an unusually warm winter has disrupted the use of the Tibbitt to Contwoyto Winter Road, a 400-kilometer ice road that is rebuilt every year as the main conduit for companies including Rio Tinto, Burgundy Mines, and De Beers to access diamond mines in Canada’s Northwest Territories. The road is used for transporting supplies to the mines, which are accessible only by air for most of the year. The two-week delay in building the Winter Road is the longest since the road first became operational in 1982. Despite the disruption and temporary restrictions on commercial truck movements by the Tłı̨chǫ Government for safety, diamond production currently remains unaffected. (Reuters)
Take 5: The narrative of the Arctic’s ‘opening’ amidst climate change has captivated investors and policymakers alike, promising unprecedented access to new economic opportunities. However, the ongoing disruptions to the Winter Road serve as a reminder of the complexities inherent in Arctic development. As the Arctic becomes more navigable, the lure of accessing its rich natural resources grows. New shipping routes promise to slash travel times and costs, while the region’s abundant natural resources — from hydrocarbons to minerals — beckon. Development of abundant mineral resources in the Canadian Arctic has allowed Canada to become the world’s third-largest diamond producer. Now, the Northwest Territories and Nunavut are positioning themselves as the next frontiers in exploring critical metals like rare earth, cobalt, and lithium, crucial for supplying the green transition. Yet, this same thawing poses grave threats to the critical infrastructure essential for exploiting these opportunities. The destabilization of key transport routes and the melting of permafrost, which underpins much of the Arctic’s built environment, are emblematic of the challenges at hand. This dichotomy presents a conundrum for investors: on one hand, the economic incentives to invest in the Arctic have never been clearer. On the other, are they worth the risk? Achieving sustainable development in the Arctic will require innovative solutions that balance economic ambitions with the preservation of the environment, ensuring that the Arctic’s opening does not lead to its undoing. (Natural Diamonds, Reuters, The Narwhal, WWF)