The Arctic This Week Take Five: Week of 13 January, 2025
Greenland Prepared for Dialogue with the US, But On Its Own Terms
As reported by Reuters on January 13, Greenlandic Prime Minister Mute Egede announced that his government is ready to engage in dialogue with the incoming Trump administration, including on strengthening defense and mining ties with the US, but emphasized that cooperation will be on the country’s own terms. The prime minister has also convened the leaders of Greenland’s political parties to form a collective approach to the renewed US interest in the island. In recent weeks, US President-elect Donald Trump expressed interest in acquiring control of Greenland. (Reuters)
Take 1: Greenland has been catapulted into the center of global attention following the recent inflammatory statements from US President-elect Trump about acquiring the territory for the United States. Although the US has long-standing security interests regarding Greenland, the President-elect’s aggressive rhetoric, including declining to rule out the use of force to seize the island, is inappropriate and counterproductive. Greenland, an autonomous territory of the Kingdom of Denmark, is situated at the nexus of key global challenges and conversations, including climate change, critical minerals, and the changing geopolitics of the Arctic. Greenland is estimated to have a wealth of critical minerals that are essential for clean energy technologies and advanced weapons systems. With China accounting for much of the world’s production of these rare earth elements, securing new supply chains for critical minerals has been an important priority for the US. Moreover, Greenland’s strategic geographic position in the Arctic and North Atlantic, which the US views as vital for its own national defense, has only grown in value as tensions intensify in the region. These issues present opportunities for meaningful cooperation between the US and Greenland. Thus, rather than making antagonistic statements, the US should respect the agency of Greenland and engage in constructive dialogue with the Greenlandic government to achieve mutual benefits. (Foreign Policy, Naalakkersuisut, Politico, The Conversation)
Arctic National Wildlife Refuge Lease Sale Received No Bids
As reported by High North News on January 10, the US Department of the Interior announced that the oil and gas lease sale for the Coastal Plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) received no bids. Last December, the Biden administration finalized restrictions on the sale, limiting it to 400,000 acres due to environmental protections. This was the second lease sale for the ANWR coastal plain, as mandated by the 2017 Tax Act. In response, the State of Alaska has sued the federal government, citing that the restrictions intended to make development unfeasible, violating the congressional directive. (High North News)
Take 2: The second lease sale of the Coastal Plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge and the subsequent lawsuit is part of a decades-long battle to permit drilling in the ANWR. Despite the passage of the 2017 Tax Act, which opened the area for oil and gas exploration for the first time, efforts to drill in the coastal plain have remained unsuccessful. Upon taking office, the Biden administration placed a moratorium on drilling in the ANWR, and the bidders during the first lease sale, which took place under the Trump administration, have since withdrawn or had their leases canceled. One of the principal concerns raised by the Biden administration and opponents of the refuge’s development has been the protection of wildlife, especially caribou. The coastal plain serves as the calving and feeding ground for nearly 200,000 Porcupine caribou that migrate from Canada each year. Since caribou are highly sensitive to oil and gas infrastructure, any drilling activity could harm the caribou population, negatively impacting the Arctic environment and the numerous local communities that depend on caribou for subsistence. While the lack of bids signals that there will be no drilling in the ANWR for now, the new lawsuit from the State of Alaska and the incoming Trump administration’s supportive stance on drilling indicates that the future of the refuge is far from certain. (Alaska Beacon, Natural Resources Defense Council, NPR, World Wildlife Fund)
New Transit Records on Northern Sea Route
As reported by The Barents Observer on January 10, figures released by Russia’s state nuclear energy corporation Rosatom reveal that shipping volumes along the Northern Sea Route totaled a record 37.9 million tons in 2024, resulting in a 1.6 million ton increase from 2023. Additionally, 92 vessels, carrying more than 3 million tons, sailed across the entire route last year, another record. Rosatom, which is responsible for the development of the northern passage, also announced that it plans to continue development, extending the Northern Sea Route to stretch from Kaliningrad to Kamchatka. (The Barents Observer)
Take 3: The record-breaking volumes of ship traffic through the Northern Sea Route in 2024 illustrate the growing maritime activity in the Arctic. With Arctic sea ice receding due to warming temperatures and further investments along the northern passage, maritime shipping through the High North will likely continue to increase. However, Arctic shipping carries significant risks, especially as Russia works to evade sanctions by using ships that have unclear ownership structures, sail without insurance, frequently change registration, and operate outside the organized international shipping industry. Commonly referred to as the “shadow fleet,” these vessels are often aging and poorly maintained vessels that do not comply with international standards and regulations. As a result, the Russian shadow fleet greatly raises the potential for a catastrophic accident, threatening the Arctic environment, marine safety, and local communities. More generally, Arctic shipping presents serious challenges that can disrupt the Arctic’s vulnerable marine environment, such as accidental or illegal discharge, ship strikes on marine mammals, the introduction of invasive species, and increased noise and atmospheric pollution. These impacts can add to or amplify the numerous other issues that the Arctic faces due to climate change. Therefore, as maritime traffic in the region sets new records, it is essential that states continue to monitor shipping activity and strengthen governance mechanisms to maintain the integrity of the Arctic’s unique ecosystem. (Centre for Research on Energy and Clear Air, European Parliamentary Research Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)
Research Finds Gaps in Permafrost Monitoring
As reported by Eye on the Arctic on January 15, a new paper published in Environmental Research Letters has found that while several permafrost regions in North America have some of the most robust monitoring systems, data from other permafrost regions is lacking or more limited. Through the study, researchers reviewed monitoring efforts, tracking technologies, and existing academic literature and permafrost data from across the world. The researchers concluded that there is an urgent need to improve the global monitoring of permafrost change and its impacts on hydrology, ecosystems, and human infrastructure. (Eye on the Arctic)
Take 4: With parts of the Arctic warming four times faster than the rest of the world, permafrost thaw poses a serious and growing challenge for the region, particularly for local communities and infrastructure. As perennially frozen soil, permafrost provided structural integrity to the Arctic landscape, serving as the foundation for settlements, pipelines, airports, and other critical constructions. However, thawing permafrost reduces the ground’s stability, contributing to collapse, as illustrated by the landslides and slumps occurring across the Arctic. These collapses and the increasing instability of the ground can severely threaten buildings and infrastructure. For example, permafrost thaw in Greenland has damaged roads and runways, resulting in the need for frequent and costly repairs. Elsewhere, entire cities and villages, such as Norilsk in Russia and Kasigluk in Alaska, have been sinking as the once solid ground turns to marsh. In addition to these impacts on people and the built environment, thawing permafrost emits large amounts of carbon previously stored in the soil. These emissions can amplify Arctic warming, compounding the challenges in the region, including permafrost thaw, forming a feedback loop. As Arctic temperatures continue to rise, permafrost thaw will likely intensify. Therefore, states should act quickly to fill the information gaps identified by the study and invest in comprehensive monitoring systems to better understand and prepare communities for future changes in permafrost. (Nordregio Magazine, NPR, Scientific American, The Barents Observer)
Citizen Science: Walrus From Space Project Makes New Discoveries
As reported by High North News on January 14, the Walrus From Space project has made new discoveries, including rediscovering and identifying new walrus haul-out sites, or large congregations of walruses on land. The project, which was started in 2021 by the World Wildlife Fund and the British Antarctic Survey, investigates the impact of climate change on walruses by utilizing “Walrus Detectives” from the public that search through satellite images of the Arctic and provide scientists with vital walrus population data. More than 37,000 people have contributed to the project so far, reviewing roughly two years of satellite photos. (High North News)
Take 5: The Walrus From Space project draws attention to the growing impacts of Arctic warming on walruses. While less prominent than some of the Arctic’s other wildlife, like the polar bear, walruses are a keystone species in Arctic marine ecosystems. Walruses are benthic foragers, mostly consuming marine invertebrates on the ocean floor. As walruses sift through sediment, they churn huge parts of the seafloor, releasing essential nutrients and organisms that would otherwise be buried in silt. These nutrients and organisms serve as food for larger fish and crustaceans, which support other marine life, continuing up through the entire food chain. However, walruses are increasingly threatened by climate change. Walruses usually spend most of their time on sea ice, using it to rest between dives. With sea ice receding due to rising temperatures, walruses are often forced to seek refuge on shore and “haul out” of the ocean to temporarily live on land. Not only are these locations far from their productive feeding grounds, but large congregations of walruses heighten the potential for disease and deadly trampling events, particularly for young calves. Therefore, monitoring walrus populations is critical for the region. By drawing on the public to support research and producing new discoveries, Walrus From Space highlights the utility of citizen science and can serve as a model for other important Arctic research initiatives. (Defenders of Wildlife, Medium, US Geological Survey, World Wildlife Fund)