The Arctic This Week Take Five: Week of 11 November, 2024

Russia Withdraws from Landmark Agreement on Nuclear Environmental Safety

As reported by The Barents Observer on November 12, the Russian government announced that it intends to withdraw from the Multilateral Nuclear Environmental Program in the Russian Federation (MNEPR), an agreement between Russia, the United States, Norway, and the European Union, that facilitates cooperation on spent nuclear fuel safety and radioactive waste management in Russia. Signed in 2003, the framework addresses legal challenges related to liability, site access, and tax exemption, enabling international assistance for critical cleanup and decommissioning projects, especially in the Arctic. Russian officials are currently making the necessary preparations to formally withdraw from the agreement. (The Barents Observer)

Take 1: Russia’s intention to withdraw from the MNEPR poses a serious risk to the Arctic environment. Although collaboration under the MNEPR agreement has largely been suspended in recent years, the formal termination of the framework eliminates the potential for future projects and reflects the near-total collapse of partnerships with Russia that have been built over the last few decades. The Russian Arctic contains significant amounts of radioactive material, including discarded reactors, radioactive waste, and scuttled nuclear submarines. Many of these nuclear objects were intentionally dumped into Arctic waters, totaling nearly 18,000 sunken assets. The MNEPR agreement was instrumental in creating the legal conditions for international funds and technical experts to enter Russia, allowing the country to carry out important nuclear security projects, including the proper decommissioning of old nuclear submarines and the safe storage of spent fuel rods. Despite these efforts, Russia’s toxic material remains a severe threat to the Arctic environment, and without foreign assistance, it is unlikely that Russia will have the resources or capabilities to fully address the issue. Moreover, Russia continues to construct more nuclear submarines, icebreakers, and other assets, further increasing the risk of a major nuclear accident and radiation contamination. Although Russia’s withdrawal from MNEPR is a setback for nuclear safety, countries should continue to pursue alternative measures to reduce the risks of radioactivity in the Arctic. (Arctic Today, Carnegie Politika, International Panel on Fissile Materials, OECD Nuclear Energy Agency)

Inuit Leaders and Federal Ministers Discuss New Arctic Foreign Policy for Canada

As reported by CBC News on November 9, Inuit leaders met with the Crown-Indigenous Relations Minister and the Foreign Affairs Minister in Ottawa to finalize an updated Arctic foreign policy for Canada. The new policy is expected to strengthen Inuit participation in international conversations about the Arctic and include the reinstatement of an Arctic ambassador. Inuit leaders have been working with Global Affairs Canada to develop the new Arctic foreign policy since the spring. (CBC News)

Take 2: Canada’s new Arctic foreign policy is an important signal that the country is investing in Arctic diplomacy. The country faces numerous environmental and security challenges in the Arctic, from exceptional warming across the region to increasing polar cooperation between Russia and China. Arctic warming also has severe consequences for many communities in Canada, with climate change triggering wildfires, exacerbating food insecurity, damaging critical infrastructure, and threatening livelihoods. Although Canada has always been a key actor in Arctic cooperation, recent actions have diminished its diplomatic presence in the region, even as other states have worked to enhance their foreign engagement. For instance, in 2023, the Canadian government relocated the Canadian International Arctic Centre, one of the institutions responsible for implementing Canada’s International Arctic Policy, from Oslo to Ottawa, moving the center further away from many of the region’s forums for cooperation. With global attention on the Arctic continuing to grow, reinstating the position of Arctic ambassador will help strengthen Canada’s diplomatic efforts in the region and reassert its commitment to Arctic affairs. Moreover, strengthening Inuit participation in international conversations is essential to ensure that the Arctic’s principal stakeholders are at the center of determining the region’s future. Thus, the updated Arctic foreign policy marks a new phase for Canadian diplomacy in the region that will hopefully invigorate international cooperation to tackle the Arctic’s growing challenges. (National Post, Reuters, The Mackenzie Institute, US Department of State)

Norway and the EU Agree on Cod Quotas in the Svalbard Fisheries Protection Zone

As reported by High North News on November 12, the Norwegian government and the EU Commission have agreed on Northeast Arctic cod quotas for EU countries in the Svalbard Fisheries Protection Zone. The EU had objected to the size of its fishing quota after Norway reduced its quota following the UK’s withdrawal from the European Union. Under the agreement, the quota for EU countries will now be 9,217 tonnes and the EU commits to ensuring that all catches of cod are within the set quota by Norway. The quota for Norwegian fishers has not changed. (High North News)

Take 3: The agreement on cod quotas in Svalbard between Norway and the EU is an example of the continued peaceful management of Arctic fisheries, but it also draws attention to the growing potential for these fisheries to be a source of competition and conflict. Rising ocean temperatures are shifting historical fish ranges, driving many fish stocks to migrate poleward into cooler waters. The increasing fish stocks could be a source of contention in the Arctic as states seek to take advantage of the changing fish distributions and maximize their marine catch potential. Fishing has economic and political significance for many countries, contributing to disputes over Arctic fisheries in the past, such as the snow crabs in Svalbard and mackerel near Iceland. Additionally, fishing has increasingly been linked to security concerns, with authorities warning that Russian fishing vessels operating in Arctic waters could be conducting intelligence-gathering and other gray-zone activities. Given growing tensions and militarization in the High North, efforts to enforce unfavorable fisheries regulations, deny access, or counter the dual-use potential of civilian vessels, could result in unintentional escalation. Although the region has yet to experience high-intensity fisheries conflicts and disputes continue to be resolved peacefully, Arctic fisheries have the potential to spark dangerous confrontations. Therefore, states should strengthen governance systems to not only ensure sustainable fisheries management but also mitigate the risks of conflict. (CNN, Ocean Futures, Royal United Services Institute, The Arctic Institute)

ICE Pact Progress: MOU Signed by the United States, Canada, and Finland

As reported by the US Department of Homeland Security on November 13, officials from the United States, Canada, and Finland have signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) that formally establishes the Icebreaker Collaboration Effort (ICE) Pact. The partnership, which was announced in July, aims to spur collective investment, reduce costs, and facilitate the development of polar icebreakers. The ICE Pact will include knowledge and resource sharing between the three countries, collaboration on workforce development, engagement with allies, and joint research. (US Department of Homeland Security)

Take 4: Icebreakers are a critical asset for Arctic security, providing a persistent presence and enabling countries to operate and assert their sovereignty in the region year-round. Although the Arctic has become more accessible due to climate change, sea ice remains a severe challenge, and with maritime activity and tensions increasing in the High North, the need for icebreaking capabilities has only grown. However, the construction of new icebreakers has been hampered by high costs and a lack of technical shipbuilding expertise, particularly in the United States. For example, while the first US Polar Security Cutter (PSC) was intended to be delivered in 2024, the PSC program has faced repeated delays and significant cost overruns, with the estimated delivery date now pushed back to 2029. By promoting the joint development and production of polar icebreakers, the ICE Pact is an important partnership to mitigate some of these challenges. The inclusion of Finland in the pact is especially useful, given the country’s specialized knowledge of icebreaker technology. Finland is a global leader in icebreaker design and construction, and Finnish shipyards also have a history of efficiency and cost-effectiveness. Thus, the signing of the MOU marks the beginning of this resource and information exchange, stimulating the collective development of new icebreakers that will help protect sovereignty, strengthen NATO’s presence in the High North, and support other Arctic operations. (Public Services and Procurement Canada, US Congressional Research Service, Wilson Center)

Study Argues that Planting Trees in the Arctic Could Accelerate Warming

As reported by Earth.com on November 8, a new study published in Nature Geoscience has found that large-scale tree planting at high latitudes may accelerate rather than mitigate global warming. The scientists emphasized that although soils in the Arctic and sub-Arctic contain significant amounts of carbon, forestry would disturb these stores. Moreover, wildfires also pose a serious risk to trees in the High North, releasing their stored carbon back into the atmosphere and reversing climate benefits. The scientists encouraged the consideration of alternative solutions, such as supporting sustainable populations of large herbivores. (Earth.com)

Take 5: The Arctic has a vital role in regulating the global climate by reflecting sunlight back into space, also known as the albedo effect. However, melting sea ice and other changes have reduced the Arctic’s ability to reflect solar energy, heating the region. Therefore, focusing on albedo is critical to addressing the rapid warming across the High North. Although some researchers have attempted to innovate through the problem, such as using new technologies to refreeze sea ice, supporting large herbivores offers a potential nature-based solution. Large herbivores, such as caribou and musk oxen, are essential parts of the Arctic ecosystem. By eating woody vegetation that often shades out a wide range of lower-lying vegetation, they help maintain biodiversity and encourage the growth of grasslands. The deep roots of grasses not only capture carbon but also enable cold temperatures to penetrate the soil, delaying permafrost thaw. Large mammals also trample snow, increasing reflexivity or albedo. These combined impacts could result in a net cooling of Arctic lands. Caribou and other large mammals are also integral for many Arctic Indigenous people, and supporting sustainable populations of these herbivores could strengthen food security and preserve Indigenous culture. Thus, while numerous solutions have been proposed to mitigate Arctic warming, the new study highlights that potential solutions must be robustly assessed, and traditional, nature-based solutions may be even more viable. (Eos, International Centre for Reindeer Husbandry, University of Oxford, US National Park Service)