The Arctic This Week Take Five: Week of 16 September, 2024

Russian Nuclear Submarines Sail Under Arctic Ice Cap

The Barents Observer reported on September 17 that two Russian nuclear submarines transited from the Barents Sea to Kamchatka Peninsula by sailing underneath the Arctic ice cap. The Krasnoyarsk, a Yasen-M class nuclear attack submarine, and the Imperator Aleksandr III, a Borei-class ballistic missile submarine, covered a distance of 4,000 nautical miles, passing through the waters of six unspecified Arctic seas as the concluding part of Russia’s week-long military drill Ocean-2024, which took place in the Pacific and Arctic Oceans. (The Barents Observer)

Take 1: The deployment of these nuclear submarines signals a broader strategic shift. Arctic states, such as Russia, are increasing their military footprint and activities in response to the Arctic’s rising strategic value and increasing accessibility as a result of climate change, leveraging the strategic importance of the High North for both defense and power projection. As such, the journey of the Kransoyarsk and Imperator Aleksandr III submarines highlight Russia’s commitment to solidifying control over the Arctic and its readiness to secure the Arctic’s rising economic opportunities. All this raises serious concerns for global security, as Russia’s ability to operate nuclear submarines beneath the Arctic ice not only reinforces its territorial claims, but also increases the risk of miscalculation or confrontation with other Arctic states. Earlier this week, the US Coast Guard tracked Russian submarines and naval vessels within the Exclusive Economic Zone off the coast of Alaska,stating these encounters have occurred more frequently over the past months as both Russia and China have increased their military presence in the region. In response, the US Coast Guard has ramped up patrols, signaling a shifting security landscape where the Arctic is becoming a theater for great power projection. As tensions rise, the Arctic risks becoming a contested military space, complicating efforts to maintain peaceful cooperation, manage shared resources, and address climate change impacts, while significantly raising the potential for conflict between global powers. (CBS News, Newsweek, NewsX, The Barents Observer)

Extinguishing Wildfires in Finnish Lapland Costs Taxpayers Up to €200k

Eye on the Arctic reported on September 17 that the rescue services of Finnish Lapland estimated that extinguishing the three major wildfires that spread across the region last week —i in Sevettijärvi, Kirakkajärvi, and Ahvenjärvi —i would cost the Finnish taxpayer between €100,000 and €200,000. It took rescue workers six days to battle the flames, with assistance from rescue teams in the regions of Kainuu and Northern Ostrobothnia. The estimated costs, which include workers’ salaries,maintenance, fuel, and equipment repairs, represent around 0.5 to 1 percent of the department’s annual budget. (Eye on the Arctic)

Take 2: The high costs associated with tackling the blazes across Finnish Lapland points to an often-overlooked repercussion from climate-related disasters: the broader economic challenges on (local) governments, economies, and taxpayers. As climate change intensifies, extreme weather events like wildfires are becoming more frequent and severe, escalating the economic costs for firefighting, equipment, and personnel. In regions heavily dependent on tourism, such as Northern Lapland, these fires also threaten to damage natural landscapes, which not only severely affects local biodiversity but also deters visitors, adding to the economic fallout. Despite profound local repercussions, the economic ramifications of Arctic climate disasters extend well beyond the region. In the case of wildfires, the release of stored carbon from burned forests exacerbates climate change and drives the frequency and severity of other natural disasters such as floods, storms, and droughts, impacting infrastructure and public health. Industries such as agriculture, fisheries, and forestry – all important for local communities in the High North – are affected by the cascading effects of a disrupted climate, and governments are increasingly forced to invest in adaptation strategies, disaster preparedness, and recovery efforts, which strains public budgets and diverts resources from other critical sectors such as education, infrastructure, and healthcare. (European Commission, Eye on the Arctic, Nørd News, YLE)

Japanese Arctic Research Vessel Arrives at Arctic Sea Ice Edge

On September 17, The Japan Times reported that Japan’s oceanographic research vessel Mirai had reached the edge of the Arctic sea ice for the first time during its current voyage. On Monday, traveling at a speed of 3 knots, the Mirai passed several ice chunks before encountering a highly concentrated ice field. Researchers on board conducted observations using a drone and sensors, recording an air temperature of minus 2.6 degrees Celsius. Findings from the vessel that areas without summer ice are expanding, and that multiyear ice is becoming increasingly rare. (The Japan Times)

Take 3: The current Arctic voyage of Japan’s Mirai research vessel, which has already undertaken 21 Arctic journeys, began in late August 2024 as part of the country’s ongoing efforts to study the rapidly changing Arctic environment and the impact of Arctic warming on global climate systems. While the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC) is currently commissioning the construction of Japan’s first dedicated Arctic icebreaking research vessel, the Mirai II, the original Mirai has been engaged in Arctic research since 1998. However, it is limited to ice-free areas due to its lack of icebreaking capability. This demonstrates Japan’s long-standing commitment to studying the Arctic and highlights a growing interest among non-Arctic states in the region, both when it comes to scientific inquiry and strategic positioning. As such, Japan’s research activities, while primarily scientific, also position the country as an active participant in broader discussions about the Arctic, as Mirai’s observations are significant. The researchers aboard the vessel have already identified an increasing transition from thick, multi-year ice to fragile first-year ice, pointing to the severity of the impact of global warming on the High North and the disruption of global weather patterns. For instance, recent studies have linked the decline in Arctic sea ice to heavy snowfall in East Asia due to the positive feedback mechanism of sea ice-atmosphere interaction. Arctic warming thus has far-reaching consequences for countries across the world. (Atmospheric Research, Polar Journal, PNAS, The Japan Times, The Japan Times)

NATO Considers Combined Air Operations Center in the Arctic to Manage Russian Threats

Defense One reported on September 17 that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization is exploring the creation of a new Combined Air Operations Center (CAOC) in the Arctic to address Russia’s increasing activity in the region. The idea, proposed by US Air Forces Europe and NATO Allied Air Command General James Hecker, has received preliminary approval from US European Command head General Chris Cavoli, though it still requires approval from NATO leadership. The location for the potential CAOC has not yet been determined. (Defense One)

Take 4: The Arctic is increasingly becoming a theater for military and strategic competition and Russia has been steadily increasing its footprint in the region with frequent air and naval incursions into NATO airspace and waters. This has prompted NATO to consider enhancing its presence, capabilities, and readiness in the region, including recent exercises such as fighter jet landings on Arctic highways. The inclusion of Sweden and Finland in NATO has significantly strengthened the alliance’s position in the High North, offering greater cooperation among like-minded Arctic states. A new Arctic Combined Air Operations Center would thus provide NATO with improved coordination, situational awareness, and response capabilities, solidifying their strategic posture in the region. However, the establishment of an Arctic CAOC would contribute to further militarization of the region, raising concerns about a possible arms race in the High North. While the center aims to counter Russian threats, its presence could provoke Moscow to further increase its military infrastructure in the Arctic. As such, balancing between deterrence and avoiding provocation should be a critical consideration for NATO. An increased presence and protection of the northern flank is necessary to adequately respond to threats and protect the sovereignty of the northern NATO-members. However, unnecessary escalations should be avoided to not result in a destabilizing arms race reminiscent of the Cold War as this would divert resources and attention from pressing issues like climate change mitigation, adaptation, and sustainable Arctic development. (AFCEA, Defense One, National Defense, War on the Rocks)

Study Finds That Arctic Warming Can Influence Ice Formation in Clouds

Phys.org published on September 19 that a recent study from Japan’s National Institute of Polar Research found that Arctic warming may increase ice formation in clouds. Using year-round aerosol measurements from the Zeppelin Observatory in Svalbard, the researchers investigated the relationship between rising surface air temperatures and ice-nucleating particles (INPs), which promote ice crystal formation in clouds. The study found that as surface temperatures rise above 0°C in areas like Svalbard, snow and ice-free surfaces release more INPs. This, in turn, encourages ice formation in clouds, which can reduce the liquid water content in mixed-phase clouds. (Phys.org)

Take 5: Exploring the connection between Arctic warming and ice formation in clouds can provide valuable insights in global climate change adaptation. As Arctic surface temperatures rise above 0°C, more barren and vegetated areas are being exposed. These newly uncovered surfaces release dust and biological aerosols, which act as INPs, promoting ice formation in clouds. This process, as observed in Svalbard, runs counter to traditional climate models which generally predict that warming will lead to more liquid water in Arctic clouds. Instead, increased INPs may lead to more ice crystals in mixed-phase clouds, which reduces their liquid water content, potentially decreasing the clouds’ reflective capacity and contributing to further warming. As a result, changes in cloud composition can affect how they interact with solar radiation. As more INPs are released due to increasing snow-free areas, these clouds can contain more ice crystals, which are less effective at reflecting sunlight than liquid droplets. This could subsequently accelerate regional warming and intensify feedback loops, further melting ice and increasing aerosol emissions. Such changes can in turn disrupt weather patterns, affect sea levels, and alter ecosystems. Overall, these findings point to the need to constantly rethink and update existing climate models as current models may underestimate the impact of biological aerosols and mineral dust on cloud formation in the Arctic, leading to incomplete predictions of future warming. (Geophysical Research Letters, Nature, Nilu, Phys.org)