The Arctic This Week Take Five: Week of March 29, 2021
Nuclear Ballistic Missile Subs Surface and Break Arctic Ice in Russian Drill
On Friday, March 26, Arctic Today reported that three Russian nuclear ballistic missile submarines surfaced and broke through the Arctic ice simultaneously as part of a complex military exercise. Commander-in-chief of the Russian fleet, Nikolai Yevmenov, reported that the submarines surfaced within a 300-meter radius near the archipelago of Franz Josef Land, breaking ice 1.5 meters deep. The drill was part of a larger exercise beginning on the 20th of March, and was designed to test Russian military operations in extreme weather. President Vladimir Putin praised the Russian navy in a video conference with Commander Yevmenov, stating that there is no historical equivalent for the surfacing of the three submarines. (Arctic Today, Daily Mail, Daily Mail, The Barents Observer)
Take 1: These submarine exercises are important to Kremlin’s increased emphasis on defensive assets in the Arctic, which Putin has proclaimed essential for boosting Russian interests as anthropogenic warming makes the region more accessible. The Arctic is believed to hold almost a quarter of the globe’s untapped oil and gas resources, which are valued at about £22trillion, and Russia’s increased defense is a push for Arctic jurisdiction. Russia is not the only nation emphasizing defense and security in the Arctic, however, the United States, Canada, Denmark, and Norway are similarly interested in the region’s extractive potential. The United States especially is increasing its defensive capabilities in the Arctic as tensions between Russia and the west reportedly rise to Cold-War era highs. While calls for tension-reducing communication between the nations’ defense committees are being heard, the increased militarization of the Arctic is cause for concern.
2021 Arctic Winter Sea Ice Peak is Seventh Lowest on Record
The winter peak of Arctic sea ice for 2021 is the seventh lowest on record, Carbon Brief reported on March 31. After growing throughout the fall and winter, sea ice in the Arctic appeared to reach its maximum extent on March 21, recorded at 14.77 million square kilometers (5.70 million square miles). At approximately 880,000 square kilometers (340,000 miles) below the 1981 to 2010 average maximum, the 2021 extent ties with the 2007 recording as the seventh-smallest extent of winter sea ice, and the lowest on satellite record since 2018, according to scientists at the National Snow and Ice Data Center. (Arctic Today, Carbon Brief, IFLScience, Phys.org)
Take 2: Although this winter peak has been called “uneventful”, it is indicative of what can be the “new normal” in the Arctic. Of the ten lowest recorded wintertime extents, seven have occurred in the last decade; all ten were recorded in the 21stcentury. The summer months are similarly impacted. October 2020 marked the first time that the Laptev Sea, an important region for sea ice build-up on the Siberian coast, has failed to freeze. This winter peak is significant in that these observations point to severe loss of multi-year ice, which causes the polar ice cap to thin and weaken. Many scientists predict that the Arctic will be ice-free during the summer from 2030 onwards, which will have dramatic impacts on shipping, biodiversity, and the livelihoods of Arctic communities.
A Timely Joke Promotes Increased Attention to Arctic Shipping Routes
What started as a joke from Russia’s State Nuclear Energy Corporation Rosatom has become an opportunity to promote Arctic trading routes, the Financial Times reported on March 30. As hundreds of ships were blocked in the Suez Canal this week, Rosatom took to twitter to tweet “You might get stuck in the Suez Canal for days.” Since the vessel’s freeing, Russia has outlined the benefits of using the northern sea route to Asia as an alternative. “The northern sea route… has high potential in expanding the cargo transportation volume, allowing to significantly cut the duration of goods transportation from Asia to Europe”, the Russian energy ministry reported. (Arctic Today, Financial Times, The Barents Observer, The Straits Times)
Take 3: Warming conditions in the Arctic mean that the window for sailing trading vessels north of Russia is dramatically increasing. Although year-round navigation is not projected until 2025-2030, the incident in the Suez Canal is encouraging for Rosatom, who expect a rise in demand for the Northern Sea Route. For Russia, trading routes through the Arctic are important for development in northern Siberia, which is believed to be a cornerstone of the country’s economic future. Already the northern sea route is a viable trading route, shipping 33 million tons of cargo in 2020. In comparison, the Suez Canal transports 3 million tons daily. This route is also approximately 40 percent shorter than the Suez Canal shipping route from China to European ports. Although the Northern Sea Route is not currently seen as a competitor to Suez or African routes, the weakened sea ice in the Arctic has opened the region for unusual ship traffic this winter, and enabled oil tankers and LNG carriers to travel without icebreaker escort. As the Arctic warms, it is likely that the Northern Sea Route will become more active as a year-round shipping route, which potentially can have negative impacts on local wildlife if not properly monitored.
Increased Arctic Noises Can Wreak Havoc on Seal Populations
As the Arctic warms and the window for shipping in the North increases, seals may not be able to make enough noise to find mates, Forbes reported on March 29. In a study from the Cornell Lab of Ornithology’s Center for Conservation Acoustics, published in Proceedings of the Royal Society B, researchers at Cornell University had studied seal populations in Alaska over a period of two years by listening to thousands of recorded vocalizations. Their findings showed that male bearded seals adjust the volume of their mating calls in response to natural Arctic noise, such as the wind or ice cracking. Past a certain threshold, the volume of their calls diminishes. As human activity increases in the Northern Sea Route, bearded seals may be unable to compete with the shipping noise. (Cordova Times, Forbes, The Royal Society B)
Take 4: This study is significant at a time where the Northern Sea Route is becoming a more viable trade route. Male bearded seals are competing not only with other individuals, but also with ambient noise. However, researchers at Cornell have observed that when external noise levels reach approximately 103 decibels re 1 uPa, bearded seals will decrease their volume. This is problematic as bearded seals are important to Inupiat North Slope communities both culturally and as a food source. The governments will therefore have to take the welfare of these seal communities into consideration or the seal populations might be in real danger.
Greenland’s Upcoming Elections Can Decide the Fate of Greenlandic Mining
As reported by Arctic Today on March 31, Greenland’s April 6 snap election can be a deciding factor in determining the fate of the rare earth metal deposits which are vital to Greenland’s economic future. After the quitting of a junior coalition partner over a mining project at Kuannersuit, or Kvanefjeld, Greenland’s parliament called an election which opinion polls project the Inuit Ataqatigiit (IA) party to win. IA opposes the major rare earth mining project in southern Greenland on the basis of the presence of radioactive materials. (Arctic Today, Reuters)
Take 5: This upcoming election is extremely significant as it can have far-reaching impacts on not only Greenland, but other nations as well. Although the population of Greenland is small, with just over 56,000 calling the Arctic island home, it houses the world’s biggest undeveloped deposits of rare earth metals. As access to the Arctic increases with warming temperatures and melting ice, international mining companies are competing for the right to exploit these resources. If Inuit Ataqatigiit forms a coalition, it is possible that they can delay, or even halt, the project, leading to dramatic repercussions for global investors. Concerns about the Kvanefjeld project stem largely from locals and fishermen, who have expressed anxiety about potential contamination of fishing grounds and drinking water. However, labor unions and economic experts alike stress that, for Greenland to achieve independence from Denmark, new jobs and a diversified economy are needed. Rasmus Leander Nielsen, assistant professor at the University of Greenland, has for instance stated that pulling out of the project now may taint the credibility of Greenland on a global scale, while IA will be left with the difficult job of communicating that “Greenland actually wants mining, and that it is only this particular project that is problematic.”