The Arctic This Week Take Five: Week of September 21, 2020

Arctic Sea Ice Extent Reaches a Near-Record Low

On September 21, the U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) reported that Arctic sea ice had likely reached its annual minimum extent on September 15 at 3.74 million square kilometers (1.44 million square miles). It is the second-lowest extent recorded in over four decades of satellite observations. NSIDC indicates that this year’s low extent melting was driven by Siberian heat waves throughout the summer and persistent offshore winds. Researchers noted that the minimum extent was preliminary, and that warm winds or weather can still further reduce ice extent this season. 

Take 1: The ecological and geopolitical effects of this downward trend in ice extent have been on display in this week’s ecological and geopolitical reporting. They include the changing distribution of fish species, milestones in Arctic shipping and icebreaking, and – most notably – a heightened security dialogue in the region this week, marked by the official opening of NATO’s Atlantic Command in the U.S., a top-heavy Norwegian government tour of Northern and Arctic Norway, and the signing of an Arctic-relevant defense agreement between Nordic nations. We are living within a changed ecosystem and are watching nations grapple with the actual, rather than theoretical loss of the passively defensive ice. This news reinforces a now foregone conclusion – reduced sea ice extent is a present reality that will continue into the future, as are the ecological and geopolitical effects of its loss. (Arctic Today, HNN, Nature, NSIDC, NYT)

International Lenders Set to Back $9.5bn Arctic LNG2 Investment

On September 18 Reuters reported, based on a shared Bpifrance document, that approximately $9.5 billion dollars worth of external financing has been lined up for the Russian company Novatek’s Arctic LNG2 project, a $21bn mega-project on the Gydan Peninsula in the Russian Arctic. The financiers include Bpifrance, the China Development Bank, Germany’s Euler Hermes, the Japan Bank for International Cooperation, an unnamed Russian bank, Russia’s Sberbank and Italy’s SACE, an export credit agency. If the finance outlined in the document is backed in full, it will cover Novatek’s estimated need for external financing. Although LNG is touted as a relatively clean alternative to coal and crude, Reuters notes that it is hard to reconcile these investments with the low-carbon future that many of these countries have committed to through the Paris agreement, regional and national carbon emissions and renewable energy goals. (Reuters)

Take 2: Exploration into binding, long-term investment in fossil fuel projects by state-backed companies makes those nations’ carbon emissions and renewable energy goals seem like lip service. The willingness of international entities to invest also indicates increasing willingness to engage in year-round use of a Russian-administrated Northern Sea Route, and would mark a milestone for Russia’s goal of developing the shipping route in line with it’s “Basic Principles in the Arctic until 2035,” which the Russian government announced in March 2020. This project is Russia’s second major, recent LNG development, and the Northern Sea Route will definitely make it possible for Novatek to efficiently transport the majority of the LNG to an East Asian market. 

Arktika Sets Course for the Barents Sea

On September 22, the Russian, nuclear-powered icebreaker “Arktika” set proverbial sail from St. Petersburg to Murmansk on its maiden voyage as part of Russia’s icebreaker fleet. The vessel is 173 meters long and can break through three-meter thick ice. According to Rosatomflot, the state-backed company which maintains Russia’s fleet of nuclear icebreakers, it is the world’s largest icebreaker. It is the first of six icebreakers in its class that Russia intends to build. The next is due for completion in late 2021, and the last in 2027. The Independent Barents Observer reports that Arktika set out despite the fact that one of its three engines and the associated propeller were damaged during sea trials off the coast of Finland. (Reuters)

Take 3: Arktika is a long-anticipated vessel! The joining of Arktika in Russia’s icebreaker fleet marks a significant moment for the country’s efforts to develop the Northern Sea Route. It is designed to communicate and actualize that Russia is the foremost operational power in the Arctic, and that it is fully invested in realizing the Northern Sea Route’s economic potential. Due to the nearly record-breaking low sea ice extent at this time, Arktika may only have to break ice for a short distance north of the Franz Joseph Archipelago en route to Murmansk. This may be positive for Russia as it means putting less pressure on the ship and its engines.

Shell Announces Plans to Resume Offshore Exploration in Alaska

On September 23, various sources reported that Royal Dutch Shell had outlined plans to resume offshore oil and gas exploration in Alaska’s Beaufort Sea. Shell outlined a multi-year plan that seeks to consolidate 18 leases in its Harrison Bay license area into a single unit, a first step towards exploration. This announcement comes despite open acknowledgement by Shell that the exploration would struggle to attract necessary financial partners, and would be “high risk” in investment terms due to the logistical challenges of offshore development and uncertain future of oil prices. (Arctic Today, HNN) 

Take 4: That any oil company wants to propose potentially expensive offshore oil exploration in the Alaskan Arctic right now – with global oil consumption tanked and showing no signs of full recovery, lack of investment appetite for such projects, and strongly divided public opinion – is probably hoping that the Trump administration and the state will clear the path for them in terms of costly environmental regulations and other legal challenges. This development can also be significant in the context of Alaska’s economic prospects. In the absence of income, sales or property taxes – or a truly taxable population – the state is dependent on oil for the majority of its operational budget. It was facing financial straits before the pandemic and further suppression of oil prices, and now has little to bank on beyond the return of near-historical oil prices, however unlikely that may seem. 

Pink Salmon Thrive in Arctic Streams

On September 21, Arctic Today reported on a study published in Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography. The study, conducted jointly by Alaskan and Canadian researchers, used life-history models of pink salmon to identify a statistically significant and positive relationship between warmer air temperatures in Nome and both higher juvenile salmon productivity during their developmental freshwater residency and better runs of adult pink salmon returning to spawn in rivers that feed into the northern Bering Sea. This indicates that warming air temperatures, which serve as a proxy for river and stream temperatures, contribute to both larger salmon runs and the pioneering of pink salmon into new habitat in rivers feeding into the Bering Sea. (Arctic Today, Science Direct)

Take 5: Expanding salmon runs along the U.S. Arctic coast is likely both a marker and a driver of significant terrestrial and marine ecological change. This can probably drive social change as well, especially in subsistence-heavy communities, as the relative abundance of ice-dependent species and fish that spawn and appreciate warmer water temperatures, such as salmon, shifts. Although I find them delicious, the local population and commercial fishing crews may bemoan that it has to be “pinks,” the least valuable of Pacific salmon species.