The Arctic This Week Take Five: Week of December 2, 2019
The Siberian Connection
On December 2, the $55 billion natural gas pipeline, “Power of Siberia,” was officially opened between Russia and China. The 3000 km pipeline stretches from Russia’s Siberian fields to China’s northeast, and is expected to yield Russia $400 billion over a period of 30 years. The pipeline is operated by Russia’s state-owned company Gazprom and is expected to deliver 4.6 bcm of natural gas in 2020, 10 bcm in 2021, 16 bcm in 2022, 21 bcm in 2023, and reach the full capacity of 38 bcm by 2025 (CNN, TASS).
Take 1: The new gas pipeline is considered an important part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative that seeks to connect Asia with Africa and Europe through the building of roadways, railways, maritime ports, power grids, oil and gas pipelines, and other associated infrastructure projects. The Russia-China pipeline will help diversify China’s import supplies and improve gas penetration in the historically coal-burning northeast. It also works to China’s favor that Russia still continues to feel the effects of Western sanctions over the annexation of Crimea in 2014. In addition, China wants to be less reliant on LNG shipments from the U.S. and Middle Eastern countries potentially influenced by U.S. policy. For Russia, China is seen as an attractive market not only because the demand for gas is rapidly growing there and there is a possibility of a better economic return, but also because it allows Russia to diversify its markets away from Europe, and help it in its quest for energy security. It is clear that both countries are dependent on each other, and it is understandable why we are seeing an increased level of collaboration between the two countries.
From Alaska to Svalbard, the Epic Adventure of Two Polar Explorers
This week, the Norwegian media has extensively covered the expedition drama of polar explorers Borge Ousland and Mike Horn who faced harsh conditions in terms of weather, and more open water and thin ice than expected, on their journey from Alaska to Svalbard. That coupled with a western ice drift on their journey made it impossible for the Norwegian and South African polar explorers to meet their intended schedule of reaching the edge of the sea ice by mid-November where they would have been picked up around 82°30′. This Friday morning it was reported that they were only a few kilometres away from where they would receive a resupply of food for the last part of their journey (BBC, Explorersweb, TV2, vg.no).
Take 2: It is not surprising that Ousland and Horn’s final dash towards Svalbard has been dubbed as the most dramatic in modern polar history. The polar explorers had to face ice drift, harsh weather and the elevated risk of sea ice collapse, all of which played a role in extending the trip’s length and contributing to serious food shortages. While the expedition is important because it shows how climate change is real, it is also important because it is the first of its kind to cross the frozen Arctic Ocean via the North Pole to Svalbard and trek into darkness and winter.
Russia Emplaces New Radar Systems in the Arctic
On December 2, Russian state media outlet TASS reported that Russia was setting up a new, long-range over-the-horizon radar system in the Russian Arctic that will provide early warning and general monitoring coverage with regards to different potential threats, including aircraft, cruise missiles and hypersonic weapons. The radar system consists of a transmitter that has 36 masts and covers an area of 1,440 feet, and a receiver that has 144 masts that are spread across an area of 4,265 feet. It will work by bouncing signals off the Earth’s ionosphere (an upper region of the atmosphere) to detect and track objects in one direction across a 180-degree arc between 1,240 and 1,864 miles away, depending on the size, type of the target, the weather and other atmospheric conditions. The radar system will be linked to the larger Russian integrated air defense network (Asia Times, Military Times).
Take 3: The installation of a new Russian radar system in the Arctic isn’t really a surprise. It is just one of many other recent or planned Russian activities and investments in the region. It comes just over a week after the U.S. Northern Command called the U.S. to invest in an early warning system for the Arctic similar to Distant Early Warning Line radar stations that were built in the U.S. in 1957. While it still remains to be seen if the United States will follow the Russians with investing in over-the-horizon radars, or focus more on other terrestrial capabilities or expanding polar satellite early warning coverage, it is clear that there is increased competition for the strategic Arctic region.
Bringing the Arctic Experience to the Big City
On December 3 it was announced that during October and November the Arctic Refuge Experience, an interactive 4D exhibit that transports visitors to the wilderness of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, had successfully been able to draw 10,000 people to its events in New York City, Washington DC and San Francisco. The exhibit put together by the Wilderness Society had been broken up into several rooms, giving people the chance to go through areas that simulated the Northern Lights and the native flora and fauna in the Arctic tundra. Through technology, design and art, the Wilderness Society was able to raise awareness about the beauty of the Arctic ecosystem, and how the refuge could be disrupted with increased oil drilling (No Proscenium, The Hill).
Take 4: Raising awareness about the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge is important as the largest refuge left in the U.S. is in the crosshairs of oil and gas development. In September the U.S. Department of the Interior had announced that leases would be available for drilling in an area that comprises 400,000 acres along the Coastal Plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. While proponents support oil and gas drilling in efforts to create jobs and reduce dependency on exports, opponents argue that drilling is bad because of the greenhouse gases associated with drilling and the threat it has on native animals like caribou and polar bears, and in turn indigenous groups like the Gwich’in who see caribou as a staple food. These pros and cons need to be carefully considered when determining future oil and gas activity in the refuge.
A New Arctic Report for U.S. Congress
On November 27, 2019, the Congressional Research Service report Changes in the Arctic: Background and Issues for Congress was released in the United States. The 84 pages report first provides background information on what the Arctic region is, U.S. Arctic Research, existing major U.S. policy documents related to the Arctic, the Arctic Council, and the International Law of the Sea. The report then addresses relevant issues for Congress, including issues related to climate change and loss of Arctic sea ice, the geopolitical environment, U.S. military forces and operations, polar ice breaking, search and rescue, oil, gas and mineral exploration, oil pollution and pollution response, and indigenous people living in the Arctic, among other things (USNI News).
Take 5: The release of the new Congressional Research Service report is great because it is important to be up to date on the many changes happening in such a strategically important region like the Arctic. However, what becomes clear from the report is that there are many issues at hand that urgently and continuously need to be addressed and improved. The information really only becomes useful if acted on. If the U.S. doesn’t act now, it will continue to fall behind while other states like Russia expand their force posture and overall military capabilities in the region.