The Arctic This Week Take Five: Week of November 25, 2019

Should We Expect an Ice Free Arctic Soon?

This week, several newspapers covered a story about how new research shows that we can expect to see an ice-free Arctic Ocean within 50 years. The research was published in the journal Nature Climate Change by researchers at the University of California’s Center for Climate Science. The researchers had used 30 years of satellite data on seasonal ice melt as a benchmark, and compared 23 existing models to the data, rejecting those models that failed to match the observed data. The idea behind the method was that if a model can’t accurately predict what happened in the past, it shouldn’t be used to predict the future. Six models were kept for the study, and together they show that the Arctic can become “functionally ice-free” with less than one million square kilometers of ice by September 2044 and no later than 2067, assuming that there are no changes in global carbon emissions (CBC, CTV News, Express).

Take 1: Melting Arctic sea ice is not a new thing, but researchers have finally been able to improve past predictions to tell more accurately the timeframe of when to expect an ice-free Arctic. This is positive because more accurate predictions give people the chance to better plan and come up with appropriate measures that can help reverse or halt Arctic sea ice thaw. If not, we will reach the predicted new low-point of one million square kilometers that climate scientists consider a “tipping point,” the point of no return or very slow return. Historically when Arctic sea ice melts to its lowest amount each September it has covered about six million square kilometers, but in more recent years sea ice has decreased to about four and a half million square kilometers. The problem is that once sea ice disappears, the darker open water absorbs up to 90% of incoming solar energy (heat). Sea ice absorbs just 20% of that energy, with the rest being reflected away. Increased warming and associated negative impacts will become a reality if we don’t start acting now. Knowing that the research has not taken into count possible efforts to cut greenhouse gasses mean that there is still hope to delay or halt the trend of declining Arctic sea ice.

Protecting the Seals

On November 25, it was announced that the Center for Biological Diversity finally had reached an agreement with the U.S. Department of Commerce on designating critical habitat in Alaska for ringed and bearded seals, two ice-seal species that were listed as threatened under the Endangered Species Act in 2012. The decision comes after the Center for Biological Diversity in June sued the Department of Commerce and the National Marine Fisheries Service over this issue. By September 2020 a federal agency will determine how much ocean and coast in northern Alaska will be designated as critical habitat for the species (Center for Biological Diversity).

Take 2: The new development in the Alaskan ringed and bearded seals issue will make it so that federal agencies that authorize activities such as oil drilling will first have to consult with wildlife managers to determine if the threatened species will be affected. This is of huge importance, especially since ice seal habitat is already threatened by climate change. Designation of critical habitat not only can help protect and minimize pressure on seal habitats, but also the larger ecosystem as the existence of another threatened species, the polar bear, is tied to the existence of ringed seals. Animals that have federally protected critical habitat are more than twice as likely to recover than species without.

Sled Dogs Through the Ages 

On November 27, the Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences Journal published new research indicating that Inuit sled dogs have similar DNA to their 2000-year-old Siberian brethren. The research conducted by the University of California, Davis for nearly a decade concluded that the Inuit dog had significantly different DNA than malamutes and huskies. Researchers examined DNA from 921 dogs and wolves, helping them to determine that the Inuit dog had more in common with older Siberian breeds than those found in the Americas (Science Daily).

Take 3: Research like this helps to determine the important role these dogs have played throughout Inuit history, and can help scientists better understand ancient human migratory patterns and behaviors. Inuit dogs were essential native people’s ability to survive the harsh Arctic climate. While not often fully understood or appreciated, this research helps to shed greater light on that fact.

Russia Doubting Natural Gas Investment Potential

This week the Russian Finance Ministry released its 2020 draft budget, which did not include any of Novatek’s desired natural gas projects. The firm has been pushing the government to invest 1.9 billion in Arctic liquid natural gas (LNG) projects in Gydan and Murmansk. While the company seems to have President Putin’s support, the Finance Ministry in not confident in natural gases profitability as the price of LNG has decreased to its lowest point in several years (The Moscow Times).

Take 4: Novatek has been pressuring the Russian government to increase investments in its projects as it aims to increase LNG production up to 70 million tons by 2030. This goal will be near impossible to achieve if Novatek does not have the financial support from the Russian government for its desired projects. While a compromise surely will be agreed upon based on Putin’s support and desire to expand LNG investment, the decreasing price of LNG means that any future projects might be reduced in scope.

A Hypersonic Missile for Christmas

Russia’s Northern Fleet aims to test its new Tsirkon scramjet-powered cruise missile before the end of the year. The test will occur in the White Sea area. The missile is designed to enemy ships at a range of 400 kilometers and can travel at Mach 9. The Tsirkon will be one of the new weapons on Russia’s new class of frigates (The Barents Observer).

Take 5: Hypersonic cruise missiles are designed to be impossible for current missile defense systems to intercept. Their design and employment into a competitive theater are a sign of how serious Russia is about Arctic defense and power projection. Russia for the last several years has been modernizing its weapon systems and military infrastructure. While many in the past doubted the seriousness of these updates, the fact that they are moving forward with many new systems shows that the country should be taken seriously with its increasing military capabilities.