The Arctic This Week Take Five: Week of September 30, 2019

IPCC Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere Finally Released

On September 24, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released its final Special Report during the Sixth Assessment Cycle. The new report, The Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (SROCC) is the work of 104 scientists from 36 countries. It evaluates what impacts the changing climate already has had on the world’s oceans, Polar Regions, and high altitude regions, and what can be expected until the end of the 21st century. A few Arctic related examples include how permafrost temperatures have increased to record high levels, how Arctic sea ice shrinkage has been observed during all months of the year over the last 40 years, and how there is a 35 percent chance that the Arctic will see an ice-free summer by 2100 even if the world manages to limit future temperature rises to 2°C (CNN, IPCC).

Take 1: The report is considered the first time that the IPCC has produced an in-depth report that examines the furthest corners of the Earth – “from the highest mountains in remote polar regions to the deepest oceans.” The report shows that “even and especially in these places,” climate change is evident. While researchers say that some impacts of climate change, like some amounts of sea level rise, can no longer be stopped, strong, decisive action can still forestall or evade some of the worst impacts. This will include impacts on Arctic communities and ecosystems.

Long Live the New Republic

On September 27, the Barents Observer covered a story about Finland’s plans to build a new giant Christmas theme park 20 kilometers northeast of Rovaniemi. The park, named Republic of Santa Claus will cover a massive area of 7,750 hectares. An estimated 10 million visitors are expected a year, and 10,000 employees will be needed to operate the park. It will include a giant transparent snow globe with artificial snowfall and northern lights year around, a Christmas tree shaped hotel with the world’s biggest sauna, and cute gingerbread houses. There is no specific time frame for the completion of the project, but it will be divided into a number of smaller projects, attracting interest from both local and foreign investors of different backgrounds. Investment costs are estimated to about one billion euros (The Barents Observer).

Take 2: The plans and the desire to construct such an enormous park in the Finnish Arctic is yet another example that demonstrates a shift in the tourism industry. While tourists in the past usually were more drawn to warmer locations, the Arctic has now become “the place” to visit. Never before has Arctic tourism been so lucrative, and it is quite possible that an estimate of 10 million visitors to a future theme park in the Finnish Arctic is not so far fetched. What is important though is that the tourism will be sustainable. One should not build a theme park before considering all future impacts, whether it is social, economic or environmental.

Arctic Salmon on Their Way to China

Finally, after five years of working to secure a number of certifications and registrations, Arctic Fish, an Icelandic company, received its approval from Chinese regulatory and customs officials to send farmed salmon to China. Norway Royal Salmon (NRS), a Norwegian salmon farmer that has had a 50 percent stake in Arctic Fish since 2016, will deliver the product. It is estimated that China will consume 240,000 tons of salmon by 2025, up from around 100,000 tons this year. How many tons of fish Arctic Fish will send to China annually still remains uncertain. The expectation is a lot as current trends predict that China will become the world’s largest consumer of salmon within the next decade. The first shipment was sent last week (High North News).

Take 3: While large-scale exports to China will generate good revenues for both Iceland and Norway, it will also put pressure on the fish stocks over time, potentially altering the marine ecosystems and have dire consequences. In addition, the plan to utilize the Northern Sea Route for future deliveries means that we will continue to see increased shipping in a region that already has seen increased traffic due to intensive resource extraction and a growing interest in Arctic tourism. The shipping of fish to China, like other ship traffic, will continue to increase the levels of emissions that further exacerbate the impacts of climate change. Not only that, but increased shipping also brings another set of problems in terms of a growing threat of oil spills.

Arctic Mayor’s Forum Set to be Established

On October 10, 11 mayors from some of the world’s most northern cities will meet in Reykjavik to sign a foundation paper that will lead to the establishment of the Arctic Mayor’s Forum. The forum will function as a collaborative platform for cooperation and coordination between the members with the goal to advocate the interests of the people and communities in Arctic nations. 400 communities have been identified as potential participants (Arctic Mayors, High North News).

Take 4: The establishment of an Arctic Mayors’ Forum is huge, as there currently doesn’t exist an organized mechanism to connect mayors across the Arctic. There is also no structured procedure for involving them in Arctic policy decision-making processes on a continuous basis. Involving the municipalities in Arctic decision-making is important, as it is the municipal leaders who know their citizens’ interests best. Unfortunately, today decisions affecting Arctic communities are often times made hundreds of miles away by people with no firsthand understanding of the issues. The mayor’s forum is crucial because it will help elevate the voices of local people and bridge the gap between the local peoples and distant policy makers.

Nobel Peace Prize Update

On October 11 the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize will be announced in Oslo. A total of 301 nominees have been nominated, 223 of which are individual persons and 78 that are organizations. Reuters reported that the Arctic Council may be one of the contenders of this year’s prize. In past years the council has been nominated, and even shortlisted (Arctic Today, High North News).

Take 5: The Arctic Council has been crucial to keeping the Arctic region peaceful and stable despite a turbulent outside world. The intergovernmental forum has been a key facilitator of cooperation, coordination and interaction among the Arctic countries on common Arctic issues, in particular on sustainable development and environmental protection. It is the common issues that foster collaboration between countries, even after relations between the Arctic countries and Russia deteriorated following the annexation of Crimea in 2014. In fact, the Arctic Council has been deemed so successful that the Hindu Kush Himalaya region is now trying to build a regional forum similar to the Arctic Council model.