The Arctic This Week Take Five: Week of April 8, 2019
Russia Hosts the International Arctic Forum
On April 9-10, in St. Petersburg, Russia the anticipated two-day International Arctic Forum was hosted for the fifth time. More than 3000 participants from 40 countries were in attendance, including Norway’s Prime Minister Erna Solberg, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin, Finland’s President Sauli Niinistö, Iceland’s President Gudni Johannesson, and Sweden’s Prime Minister Stefan Löfven. The forum focused on socio-economic development of the Arctic territories. Russian President Putin outlined his country’s ambitious plans in the Arctic region. The plans involve increasing the amount of cargo carried across the Arctic sea route from 20 million metric tons last year to 80 million tons in 2025, renewing Russia’s icebreaker fleet, modernizing its ports on the Arctic coast, and drafting a federal law that gives beneficial conditions for companies working in the region (AP News, Eye on the Arctic, RT).
Take 1: This International Arctic Forum serves as a reminder of Russia’s strong interests in the Arctic region, and the difference that exists in perception between Russia and its Nordic neighbors. While Russia is mainly focused on developing the region with new infrastructure, military capabilities and extraction of hydrocarbons and coal, the Nordic countries also recognize the need for higher focus on climate issues. The fact that so many Nordic heads of state participated in the forum means that there still is a willingness for cooperation in the north even after Russia’s past acts of aggression, and sanctions now being in place. It is huge that it is the first time a Norwegian Prime Minister travels to Russia since the country’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, and it is the first time a bilateral meeting takes place between the Swedish and Russian heads since Löfven took office over four years ago. In order for true cooperation to occur in regard to Arctic issues, countries must be willing to meet, even if there are other areas of tense disagreement.
Russia Establishing Its Missile Defense Capabilities in The Arctic
This week, the Russian Northern Fleet has prepared for a missile drill outside Northern Norway that is set to occur next week. A NOTAM, a notice filed to alert about potential hazards along a flight route or at a location, was established 100 nautical miles northwest of Lofoten, in international waters and airspace. The NOTAM is valid from April 11 to 14 between 3 am and 7 pm and stretches an area of 66,000 feet (The Barents Observer).
Take 2: The reason why the Russian missile drill is of importance is because it sends a signal to NATO that Russia is capable of expanding its bastion defense beyond the Barents Sea. In the event of a conflict occurring in this area, Russia will be able to utilize its bastion defense to establish a layered defense ensuring freedom of sailing for its strategic ballistic missile submarines. Russia’s defense capabilities seek to prevent NATO forces access to naval bases on the Kola Peninsula. This should be of concern to NATO as it limits the alliance’s freedom of maneuver and ability to conduct offensive operations. Russia is serious about its Arctic capabilities. NATO therefore needs to begin asserting itself in this area or it will find itself left out.
Global Warming Moving Arctic to Unprecedented State
A study published on April 8 in the Environmental Research Letters concludes that the Arctic biophysical system is moving into an unprecedented state, trending away from its relatively stable 20th century state. The study examined various indicators of Arctic change from 1971 to 2017 with the international team concluding that temperatures have risen in the Arctic by 5 degrees Fahrenheit since 1971. The study shows how the increased temperatures have resulted in increasing precipitation, increasing ice melt, and creating longer growing seasons for plant life. The scientists have stated that a “warmer Arctic is a greener Arctic.” (IOP Science, The Weather Channel)
Take 3: A green Arctic sounds nice but the reality is that warmer temperatures are confusing plants and insects. As plants bloom at different times, bees are unable to pollinate, resulting in less plant life in the future. At the same time increased temperatures affect the patterns of fish. As the water gets warmer, various types of fish could perish or move elsewhere, affecting the whole ecosystem. The rising temperatures and the changes they create are truly going to have global consequences.
Norway’s Labour Party Withdraws Support to Oil Drilling in The Arctic
This week, Norway’s largest party in parliament, the Labour Party, withdrew its support for exploratory drilling off the coast of the Lofoten Islands. In doing so, the Labour Party now creates a large majority in parliament that remains opposed to drilling in the area. The Lofoten archipelago contains an estimated 1 to 3 billion barrels of oil. Equinor, the country’s largest oil producer, has stated that in order for Norway to maintain current production levels in the future, it must have access to this vast oil reserve (Independent).
Take 4: In Norway there is raising environmental concerns among the population. The leadership of the Labour Party sees withdrawing its backing in this case as a way to gain greater support from these segments of the population. Yet, the Labour Party is walking a tightrope for many of its current supporters are from the oil industry. This group is potentially negatively impacted as a result of the party’s recent actions. The oil industry has already come out in opposition to the Labour Party’s move. This means that the number of members and voters might not be getting any higher in the short-term. However, shifting the party’s course may pay off in the long-term as the world focuses more on climate and moves towards more renewables. The new stance also preserves the future of the Arctic archipelago.
Blue Lights Over Arctic Not Aliens but NASA Rockets
On April 5, NASA launched two specialized rockets from a base in Finland. The rockets were designed to release colored chemicals into the atmosphere. The project, called The Auroral Zone Upwelling Rocket Experiment (AZURE), seeks to gain a greater understanding of the Northern Lights and their role in Earth’s energy systems. Residents for hundreds of miles were surprised and scared by the lights the rockets produced. Some residents even called the police to alert them of an alien attack (New York Post).
Take 5: The rockets and the colorful chemicals they release are only one part of AZURE. After the rockets release their chemicals, the clouds they produce are tracked by ground-based photography, helping to triangulate their movement. In the future NASA should publicize these types of events. It’s important to let local communities know what is going on so emergency services don’t get overwhelmed with concerned phone calls.