The Arctic This Week Take Five: Week of November 5, 2018
It’s Not All Humanity’s Fault
On November 5, Nature Geosciences published the results of a new Arctic study. Researchers from Lawrence Livermore Nature Laboratory had studied which factors best explain changes in Arctic sea ice during the past 37 years using a series of climate models and an analytical method known as “fingerprinting.” The results showed that man-made climate change alone doesn’t explain the dramatic loss of sea ice in the Arctic. Instead, natural climate fluctuations contribute to about 40-50 percent of the observed multi-decadal decline in sea ice (Nature Geoscience, Phys.org).
Take 1: The new study helps with explaining the accelerated sea ice melting we have observed in the Arctic these recent years. In the past, most climate models have predicted less sea ice loss than observed. Now, with the new findings, it will be possible to get more accurate estimates. When taking natural variability into account, Arctic sea ice loss is quite similar across models and observations. The recent study is therefore of high importance for future sea ice predictions in the Arctic. More accurate predictions are necessary as the Arctic ice melt affects the entire world, contributing to for example extreme weather events and rising sea levels. Enhanced knowledge will help people and governments better understand how much effort is needed to limit ice melt, and how to better prepare for future changes and crises.
A New Railway Connection to Yamal Peninsula
On October 29 it was announced that Russia’s energy company Gazprom and Russian Railways plan on constructing a railroad that will run to the new Arctic port of Sabetta on the Yamal peninsula. The project is set to cost up to 115 billion rubles ($1.7 billion), and it will extend the existing 1097 km long line that already connects the small northern settlements of Obskaya, Bovanenkovo and Karskaya. The goal is to transfer the project to federal ownership, ensuring that the government backs potential investors (Bne Intellinews, RT).
Take 2: The new railroad will be of huge importance to Russia due to its recent and future activity on the Yamal peninsula. The peninsula holds about 26.5 trillion cubic meters of gas, accounting for 85 percent of Russia’s natural gas. In December 2017, a port and LNG plant was opened in Sabetta. Since then, over five million tonnes of LNG have been shipped from the port. Russia has also signed future deals with countries like India, China and Saudi Arabia. In the future, the new railroad will help contribute to Russia’s success in the Arctic. It will be vital for delivering cargo, transporting oil and gas, and moving freight from the Northern Latitudinal Railway to the Northern Sea Route (Gazprom, Reuters).
Canada Invests in New Icebreaker
On November 2, the Canadian government confirmed plans to construct a sixth Arctic and Offshore Patrol Ship (AOPS) for the Royal Canadian Navy. The decision comes after a push by Irving Shipbuilding and its employees for additional work, and the government’s commitment to maximizing stable employment.The project will be completed in the winter of 2024 for a total of $810 million, a price tag that is double that of other vessels previous built by the shipyard. The price increase is a result of the federal government extending the production schedule by 18 months, and adjusting labor rates, project office costs, and foreign exchange. This will allow Irving employees retain their jobs until a new fleet of larger warships (Canadian Surface Combatants) is ready to be built (Saltwire, Vancouver Sun).
Take 3: The decision to build a new icebreaker will not only save money over the long-run as skilled labor will be in place to start construction of the larger warships in the early 2020s, but it will also increase naval readiness. Six ships are necessary for the country to successfully operate in the Arctic Ocean, the North Atlantic, and the North Pacific. A sixth ship will ensure that the country has at least one ship on each coast ready for deployment at all times while the others undergo maintenance. The ship is a necessary investment as Russia and other non-Arctic actors show increased interest in the area.
A Whale of a Time
This week, Brandon Laforest, a marine biologist with the World Wildlife Fund, reported the sighting of sperm whales in the Canadian Arctic. These whales, he claims are a sign that warming waters in the Arctic are causing changes to the ecosystem. This is the second known sighting of these whales in the region. The last time sperm whales were spotted in Arctic waters was in 2014. The physiology of sperm whales makes it difficult for them to navigate colder waters. Their oily fat turns waxy in colder waters, and their bodies are generally ineffective in breaking through ice (The Guardian, YouTube).
Take 4: Sperm whale sightings in the Canadian Arctic supports the idea that the warming weather is allowing animals not historically present in the Arctic region to migrate north. While the whales themselves are not a threat to the ecosystem, there are other predators that can disturb the balance. This can better be observed on land. A new study has shown that plovers and sandpipers, shore dwelling birds, are under threat from predators migrating north. There has been a threefold increase of egg thefts in the last 70 years. As migratory patterns change, the relationship between predators and prey will continue to change, bringing with it larger changes to the fragile Arctic ecosystem (The Independent).
Russian Strategic Bombers Fly Along Norwegian Coast
This week Russia flew four long-range bomber missions from the Barents Sea to the North Sea. The bombers flew along the Norwegian coast, around the same areas where Trident Juncture, the large NATO military exercise was occurring. In all four cases Norwegian F-16 fighter jets were scrambled; the jets are part of NATO’s Quick Reaction Alert (QRA). All of supersonic Tu-160 and Tu-95 strategic bombers are based in Southern Russia but often fly north for missions. The route along the coast is considered the “gateway” route to international airspace, and at no time was Norwegian airspace violated (The Barents Observer).
Take 5: While Norwegian airspace was not violated, the timing of all the flights is suspicious. Russia has been opposed to Trident Juncture from the beginning, and even threatened to conduct missile testing in the area. These flights and other actions are a measured response by Russia, showing the West not only their displeasure at the exercise occurring but also showing off Russian capabilities. A positive sign that comes from this is Norway’s quick reaction. Russian actions in a way allow NATO’s QRA to test and flex its own muscles.