The Arctic This Week Take Five: Week of September 10, 2018

Vostok-2018 Exercise Begin

On September 11, Russia began its largest military exercise, Vostok-2018, since the end of the Cold War and the collapse of the Soviet Union. The week-long mock battle between land, air, and sea forces will include counter-terror and missile defense scenarios. A total of 300,000 Russian troops, 36,000 vehicles and 1,000 aircraft are taking part in the exercises that will be held from September 11 to 17 in Russia’s Eastern Military District, an area located on the country’s borders with China and Mongolia. In addition, 3,200 troops from China and some units from Mongolia will join the Russian exercise (BBC News, CNN, The Atlantic).

Take 1: The exercises are held at a time of heightened tensions between the West and Russia. Yet, as impressive as the numbers and the scale of the exercise are, some reports indicate that Russia has inflated the numbers and the real total is somewhere around 150,000 troops. If true, then perhaps the exercises are meant more for show than actual practicality, intended to show Western nations that Russia can still conduct continent wide joint operations. Either way, Russian actions have increasingly grown more hostile towards the West and it seems that the country is seeking closer ties with China.

Dust Storms Deceive Satellites

This week, CBC News covered a story about a recent study published in Scientific Reports by Dr. Ron Vincent from the Royal Military College of Canada. The research was conducted using satellite infrared data between 2007 and 2017 in the Western Canadian Arctic. The findings revealed that 25% of dust storms in Asia, mainly dust storms in the Gobi and Taklamakan deserts, transport particles directly to the Arctic. An estimated 6.5 million metric tons of dust is deposited on ice, snow and water in the Arctic each year. The dust deposited there increases the chances of warming by reducing the reflectivity of the surface of the ice. However, satellites have misread the surface temperature. Satellites report the temperature as being colder than it actually is because dust doesn’t emit energy as efficiently as water or ice surfaces (CBC News).

Take 2: It is no secret that with global warming we are seeing more drylands, and an increased frequency and intensity of dust storms. This implies that more dust will be coming to the Arctic with time. Increased warming means less ice and snow, detrimental effects on ecosystems and indigenous communities, and of course more storms in the future. It is important to remember that human activities are still a big contributor to climate change and the increasing levels of deforestation around the world. Therefore, it is highly necessary to step up efforts in tackling the problem. If global warming can be limited while improving land management techniques to reduce deforestation, then we can also limit areas from becoming too arid. This can help protect the Arctic from increased warming by reducing dust storms.

Breaking the Ice

This week, China launched the Snow Dragon II (Xuelong 2), the country’s first domestically built icebreaking ship. The ship designed by both Finnish and Chinese companies was built on the frame of an old Ukrainian vessel. Construction began in 2016, and it is the only research vessel that can break ice going forward and backwards. It will contain advanced laboratories, two helicopter pads, and can sustain a crew of 90 for sixty days. The ship’s research will focus on the collection of first-hand data from various sites and other scientific surveys. The Snow Dragon will commission and begin its research missions in early 2019 (High North News, South China Morning Post).

Take 3: The building of the Snow Dragon and its future research missions serves a few purposes. In order for China to increase its influence in the region it has to contribute to the region’s growing research field. Being involved with research allows China to start developing a say in important issues that impact the area and that influence regional bodies like the Arctic Council. At the same time, if China is to be considered a major player in the area, it needs to have the necessary capability to act on its own. The Snow Dragon contributes to the growing list of China’s Arctic capabilities, with future plans in place for the country to start building nuclear powered icebreakers. It seems that China is taking its Arctic strategy seriously.

Russia and Denmark Continue to Argue for More Continental Shelf Space

This week, Russia’s Natural Resources Minister Dmitry Kobylkin stated that the dispute that arose in 2015 between Russia and Denmark regarding the rights of the continental shelf territories remains unsettled. Both countries have claimed the Lomonosov Ridge, an area that stretches from the coasts of Greenland and Canada to Russian waters above eastern Siberia. The minster has stated that while neither side has come to an agreement, Russia has the best argument as a result of a feasibility study. Denmark and Russia are the only Arctic states that have officially sought expansions of their continental shelves into Arctic areas (TASS).

Take 4: There are major implications for the country that wins out in this argument. The Lomonosov Ridge has the potential of increasing hydrocarbon reserves by 5 million tonnes of fuel with the chance of further discoveries in the future. The area holds the potential for future natural resource extraction. It is hard to say right now which side will win at the end. The argument has been going on since 2015 and has the potential to continue into the foreseeable future. While Russia claims they have the right to extend the shelf, the UN might hold off on any decisions in order to avoid contributing to tensions between Russia and the other Arctic countries.

Russian Bombers Intercepted Near Alaska

On September 11, the U.S. military reported that two Russian fighter jets escorted two Russian nuclear Tu-95 capable bombers near Alaska. The planes were intercepted by U.S. F-22 stealth fighter jets in the Alaska Air Defense Identification Zone. This is an area extending 200 miles further from Alaska’s westernmost island. It serves as an early alert buffer area between the two countries, unilaterally designated by the U.S. The Russian jets never entered actual U.S. or Canadian Airspace but it is the second time this month that Russia has flown bombers near Alaska, the first occurring on September 1 (NBC News, New York Post, The Hill).

Take 5: It is interesting to observe that while Russia is conducting a major exercise in Europe it’s still flaunting its bomber capabilities near Alaskan airspace. The U.S. Air force has stated that these incidents are routine and are not considered a major risk to the U.S. They, just like Vostok 2018, are a show of force and capability. The expectation remains that they will continue to happen in the future. The U.S. can also be expected to conduct similar flights near Russian airspace in the future.