The Arctic This Week Take Five: Week of March 5, 2018

Russia Addicted to Icebreakers

On March 1, Russian President Vladimir Putin delivered his state-of-the-nation speech to parliament. During the speech he vowed to continue developing the scientific, transport, navigation, and military infrastructure that will ensure Russian interests in the Arctic region. He emphasized that icebreakers are a key component of this ambition as they keep the Northern Sea Route (NSR) open for shipping. New additional icebreakers will be built, and the Russian Arctic fleet will continue to be the strongest in the world. By 2025, traffic along the NSR will increase tenfold, to 80 million tons (High North News, The Independent Barents Observer, World Maritime News).

Take 1: In February a ship made history by completing a winter crossing of the Arctic without an icebreaker (TAI, The Independent). Crossing of the polar region will continue to become easier due to rising temperatures, thinning sea ice, and improved weather forecasting. However, as for now, icebreakers still are vital for getting access in the Arctic, and Russia remains king. The country has more than 40, granting it a considerable head start in accessing and controlling vital Arctic resources. In comparison, Finland has the second most with 10 (United States Coast Guard). While other countries with fewer icebreakers might be willing to wait for improved conditions to access the Arctic regions, in doing so they cede to Russian access and control of resources for the foreseeable future. With the potential economic boom that increased traffic brings can other countries really afford to sit out?

NATO 68 years and Still Relevant

On March 5, 5000 troops started training in Troms County, the second northernmost region in Norway. Among them are 350 soldiers from the U.S. Marines (USMC) and the Royal Netherlands Marine Corps (RNLMC). The exercise, called Joint Reindeer, includes activities on the ground, at sea and in the air, and lasts till March 11. It is the second biggest military drill in Norway. It aims to strengthen and maintain the operational readiness of Brigade North (a core combat force in the Norwegian Army), while helping to train other allied countries under harsh arctic conditions (The Independent Barents Observer).

Take 2: Increasing Russian assertiveness in Europe and around the world has revitalized the NATO alliance. Western countries are increasing military spending and conducting more joint drills together as a way to counter what is perceived to be a rising Russia threat. The recent Russia military exercise (Zapad 2017) increased concerns among many European countries that Russia could use such exercises as preparations for a war with NATO (CBS News). Exercises like Joint Reindeer, and this October’s Trident Juncture, an exercise that includes 35,000 soldiers from 30 countries, are a direct response to these concerns. The exercises provide reassurance to allies by improving civil-military coordination, unit readiness, and force integration. NATO’s role as a united military alliance once again proves vital in deterring threats, and while there were questions about its relevance in the past, those questions seem to have been put to rest.

Arms Shipments Accrue Frequent Flyer Miles

Last week, it came to light that Air Atlanta, an Icelandic airline company, has over the past few years made 25 trips transporting weapons from Eastern Europe to Saudi Arabia through Iceland. The airline had received the necessary authorization for arms transport from Icelandic authorities, and shipments included 750 mortar shells, 850 powerful machine guns, 2,000 bazookas, over 170,000 landmines, and 850,000 units of ammunition of different types. However, the transport of weapons has received critique internationally as the weapons have ended up in conflicts in Yemen and Syria. Now, the Icelandic government has stopped future shipments, and is in the process of reviewing its standards and practices (Iceland Monitor, Iceland Review, The Reykjavik Grapevine).

Take 3: It is absolutely mind-blowing that Iceland supports arms transports to countries that target civilians. The government justifies its actions by stating that it doesn’t have the means to monitor where the load from an aircraft ends up after reaching its destination. It also claims that Saudi Arabia is not a war-torn country (Iceland Monitor, The Reykjavik Grapevine). These reasons don’t hold up, as it’s no secret that Saudi Arabia has been involved in funneling weapons into Syria, and is directly involved in the conflict in Yemen. The two conflicts have resulted in the deaths of thousands of civilians. As a result, Iceland’s support can be considered a breach of international law as it goes against the UN Arms Trade Treaty of 2013 and the Ottawa Treaty of 1997 (United Nations Treaty Collection, UNODA). The transport of weapons could also break the Icelandic law on goods and services that have military purposes (Office of the Parliament). This law forbids shipment permits that directly defy Iceland’s international obligations and requires Iceland to increase international security. The failure of many western countries including Iceland to adhere to international law by providing support to arms shipments results in protracted regional conflicts. In order for the international order to work, countries must adhere to the rules and not seek loopholes that benefit their self-interest and contribute to more loss of life.

The World’s Freezer Not So Cold Anymore

Last month, Take 5 covered a story about record low sea-ice levels in the Arctic in January of this year (TAI). This week, research shows that it is not only a monthly record that was set, but the region has experienced its warmest winter on record. Arctic weather stations averaged 8.8 degrees warmer than normal for this year’s season. The land weather station closest to the North Pole (Cape Morris Jesup) spent more than 60 hours above freezing in February, making it feel more like May. Previously, temperatures had only been above freezing twice at this time of the year. With the increase in temperatures comes record low sea ice (CBS News, Chicago Tribune, The Guardian). In just eight days in mid-February, almost a third of the sea ice covering the Bering Sea off Alaska’s west coast disappeared (InsideClimate News).

Take 4: While an early spring might be a cause for celebration in other parts of the world, warm weather in the Arctic has global implications. Experts claim that the melting sea ice allows warmer air to rise from the ocean, contributing directly to the global warming weather cycle by changing atmospheric pressure. The change in pressure and the weakened jet stream that result from it ensure that storms stay around longer over land and can be the reason for extreme weather in Europe and Eastern U.S. Yet, while this idea still needs to be researched more, arctic whale hunting communities that depend on the formation of sea ice are already feeling the negative effects. The late ice formation this year meant that whales migrated later than usual, resulting in food shortages throughout some arctic communities. Changing weather patterns in the Arctic are a cause for concern for both regional communities and the rest of the world as countries are forced to adapt to what most likely will become the new norm; less ice and more extreme weather (Chicago Tribune, InsideClimate News).

As Ice Melts Research Grows

On March 5, The Russian Foundation for Basic Research (RFFI) announced that they plan to organize a special competition for grants among Arctic research projects for 2018 (TASS). The foundation pays special attention to research in natural sciences, and in previous years research projects have mostly been in sectors of Biology and Earth Sciences where Russian scientists have received 100 million rubles ($1.7 million) for each project. In 2017, the Foundation’s total budget was 11.5 billion rubles ($200 million), but this year funding of Arctic research will grow by 20%.

Take 5: More money for funding research is always good, right? Just like the recent news about Russia building additional icebreakers and increasing traffic through the NSR, Russia’s continued investment in Arctic research reveals the country’s desire to further develop and prepare the region for greater resource extraction. Yet, increased funding for Arctic research can provide gains for all arctic countries by providing a better understanding of the region, and the role Arctic plays in balancing the world’s climate. Increased research can also ensure sustainable social and business development in the area. Therefore, it is absolutely necessary that researchers in the Arctic receive grants, including financial support from the Russian Foundation for Basic Research. In the future, Russian researchers can study and monitor the thawing permafrost that threatens buildings and port facilities, biological species and the threat from potential hydrocarbon production accidents, and collect data to foresee natural cycles in the Arctic marine zone that later can be used for navigation purposes (TASS). In this case, increasing grants for research can both serve Russia’s self-interests while helping the rest of the world gain vital information about the Arctic’s climate and environment.